ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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ColdMiser123
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1061 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:10 pm

18z Euro has a center reformation north of Hispaniola, stronger than the 12z run through 72 hours and farther northeast.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1062 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:11 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:18z Euro has a center reformation north of Hispaniola, stronger than the 12z run through 72 hours and farther northeast.

Can you post the run?


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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1063 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:12 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:18z Euro has a center reformation north of Hispaniola, stronger than the 12z run through 72 hours and farther northeast.


Was just going to say, it's back to riding the north coast of Cuba but is a little stronger as a result. Maybe a bit slower too.

Looks like all the models participated in happy hour tonight :P
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1064 Postby AutoPenalti » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:12 pm

18z is paid so i don’t think you can.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1065 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:13 pm

ColdMiser123 wrote:18z Euro has a center reformation north of Hispaniola, stronger than the 12z run through 72 hours and farther northeast.


by 60 hours its still over the high terrain and moving into cuba.

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1066 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:15 pm

18z Euro valid 15z Friday has noteworthy differences compared to the 12z Euro at the same time, with the storm largely surviving the interaction with Hispaniola.

6z/18z Euro runs only go out to 90 hours.
Last edited by ColdMiser123 on Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:23 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1067 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:16 pm

Moving NW away from Cuba and toward SE Florida in the last frame at 90 hrs. Bit of a difference from the 12z, interaction with Hispaniola is a wild card.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1068 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:17 pm

75 hours..

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1069 Postby ColdMiser123 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:19 pm

Run ends at 90 hours with a 1005 hPa storm just west of Andros Island moving WNW toward SFL.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1070 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:27 pm

Lots of NW Shear..

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1071 Postby SoupBone » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:29 pm

As I've said a few times, either the GFS-Para is gonna be a king amongst models or spectacurlarly burn itself out. :lol:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1072 Postby Aric Dunn » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:30 pm



None of the models really agree on anything..

Euro has NW shear, HWRF has SW Shear, GFS is just on crack. HMON is neutral.

long story short. pay little to no attention to the models until thursday.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1073 Postby Ritzcraker » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:32 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:


None of the models really agree on anything..

Euro has NW shear, HWRF has SW Shear, GFS is just on crack. HMON is neutral.

long story short. pay little to no attention to the models until thursday.


“HMON is neutral” Never thought I’d hear those words
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1074 Postby aspen » Tue Jul 28, 2020 7:35 pm

Aric Dunn wrote:long story short. pay little to no attention to the models until thursday.

Since the center has been shifted far SW of the 5pm forecast track and just about all prior model solutions have probably been rendered irrelevant, I couldn’t really agree with this more.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1075 Postby AxaltaRacing24 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:00 pm

aspen wrote:
Aric Dunn wrote:long story short. pay little to no attention to the models until thursday.

Since the center has been shifted far SW of the 5pm forecast track and just about all prior model solutions have probably been rendered irrelevant, I couldn’t really agree with this more.

3 words. follow the nhc
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1076 Postby gatorcane » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:13 pm

18Z NAVGEM shifts west. It was delayed tonight for some reason:

Think it also had Gonzalo plowing through SE Florida :lol:

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1077 Postby lsuhurricane » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:17 pm

18z Euro Ensembles show 2/3rds of developed lows into the GA/SC coast and the other third wrapping around South FL and eventually into the GOM
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1078 Postby WeatherEmperor » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:18 pm

Here is the latest model suite. Notice the TVCN consensus is south of the NHC track while the other models like GFS, Ukmet, Hwrf and Hmon are all east of the track. Why is the TVCN so far south. Is a greater weight for the Euro programmed into it??

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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1079 Postby sma10 » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:19 pm

lsuhurricane wrote:18z Euro Ensembles show 2/3rds of developed lows into the GA/SC coast and the other third wrapping around South FL and eventually into the GOM


Presumably, these are relatively weak lows?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1080 Postby Blown Away » Tue Jul 28, 2020 8:22 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:Here is the latest model suite. Notice the TVCN consensus is south of the NHC track while the other models like GFS, Ukmet, Hwrf and Hmon are all east of the track. Why is the TVCN so far south. Is a greater weight for the Euro programmed into it??

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200729/bd4b7569465059a45b784d9da85f44c7.gif


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Yeah, interesting b/c the NHC hugs the TVCN and that’s about as big of a spread between TVCN & GFS/HWRF I’ve ever seen. Note, I think the Euro graphic is from 12z and I think 18z Euro was more NE closer to SFL.
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