ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Airboy]

My guess it that it will be a H before 12 hours, feel like it's takeing off now based on sat and recon data.

[NDG]

With the recon finding plenty of unflagged, convection free 60+ mph winds on the NE quadrant, throw the latest 06z Intensity models out the window.

[Airboy]

L. Estimated (by SFMR or visually) Maximum Surface Wind Outbound: 52kts (59.8mph)
N. Maximum Flight Level Wind Outbound: From 128° at 57kts (From the SE at 65.6mph)

[NDG]

Pressure down to ~1000 mb per the recon.

070630 2659N 08344W 9249 00688 0000 +229 +221 049007 007 013 000 00

[Airboy]

Pressure down to ~1000 mb per the recon.

070630 2659N 08344W 9249 00688 0000 +229 +221 049007 007 013 000 00

Looks from recon that the center did a little jump to the north

[NDG]

Looking much better.

[Javlin]

really disorganized now, but should hit 50 mph by either late Sunday or Monday Morning....

You expect it to increase only 5mph thru the whole day??

The center is really having difficulty consolidating. Until that happens, it's not going to do much. And it's not going to happen over the next hour or 2

Really?Looking at the shear maps and voracity at 500,700 and 850 it says a different message shear is decreasing and the storm is stacking therefore because of it.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=
http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/w ... oom=&time=

[Sanibel]

Eye feature...

We're getting pounded here under that thick band...

[Meteophile]

 https://twitter.com/Meteophile1/status/1305045955927044096

[Steve]

Eye feature...

We're getting pounded here under that thick band...

Live action at 3:30am. You know it’s tropical when...

Stay safe Sanibel. I need to go to bed. I have to drive back to New Orleans in the am and get stuff handled and plot out the next series of moves, if necessary.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Reminds me a bit of the small inner core Gordon in 2018 developed as it was moving away from Florida. I'm hoping that the same result occurs.

 https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1305045241272164352

[eastcoastFL]

Really nasty squall coming through right now here on the east side of Fl. I imagine the west coast is dealing with some serious weather right now and this morning.

Sally really looks to be getting her act together on radar. Looks like a core may be coming together.




Putting together some good banding and outflow

[EquusStorm]

547z and 812z. Suffice to say that's blowing up fast in a little over two hours

[Shell Mound]

Once again, the HWRF is considerably outperforming the EC/GFS in terms of gauging short-term convective organisation and rate of deepening. I think this is yet another case in which the HWRF’s intensity ends up being most realistic. Therefore, I would not be shocked to see an intensifying Category-3 or even low-end Category-4 TC approaching the mouth of the Mississippi River (Delta). Unfortunately, the angle of approach will maximise local surge-related impacts. Additionally, the HWRF’s track itself may not end up being too far from reality, given that the HWRF is by far the best with the short-term intensity.

[Airboy]

547z and 812z. Suffice to say that's blowing up fast in a little over two hours

Looks like the new convection over the center soon will "connect" with the south "blob".

[eastcoastFL]

Once again, the HWRF is considerably outperforming the EC/GFS in terms of gauging short-term convective organisation and rate of deepening. I think this is yet another case in which the HWRF’s intensity ends up being most realistic. Therefore, I would not be shocked to see an intensifying Category-3 or even low-end Category-4 TC approaching the mouth of the Mississippi River (Delta). Unfortunately, the angle of approach will maximise local surge-related impacts. Additionally, the HWRF’s track itself may not end up being too far from reality, given that the HWRF is by far the best with the short-term intensity.

Sally looks like she’s starting to ramp up already and she’s got 60 hours left over the warm GOM waters. On the shear map I see an anti cyclone over the GOM and minimal shear so it’s hard to argue with the potential you mentioned. I just don’t see what’s going to keep her from at least pushing into a mid to high end CAT 2 in that time frame. Unless there’s something forecasted that I’m unaware of. The nhc doesn’t mention any shear forecasted down the road in their latest discussion And it seems like they’re just going off of the intensity models right now which we know are not very accurate.

[eastcoastFL]

Lots of warm SST all over. I guess the bright side is she’s not in the hottest part of the gulf but 29-30C is plenty

[3090]

Looking much better.

https://i.imgur.com/l3vnySt.gif

WHOA!!!!

[LarryWx]

Reminds me a bit of the small inner core Gordon in 2018 developed as it was moving away from Florida. I'm hoping that the same result occurs.

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1305045241272164352?s=21

I was looking at the archived thread for 2018's TS Gordon, which had a very similar small core and similar track earlier in Sept with very similar E GOM SSTs near 30C. Like for this storm, there was a pretty good bit of talk about the possibility of RI and most folks expected a H hitting the Gulf coast. The NHC peak strength was projected to be 75 mph offshore before weakening some vs 85 for this one. The peak ended up being 70 mph starting 130 miles from the Gulf coast and lasting til landfall.

Gordon archived thread:
viewtopic.php?f=88&t=119828&start=600


Gordon track:


How does Sally compare to Gordon? Any thoughts?

[GCANE]

Massive hot tower rotating around the CoC.
Very large, mesoscale increasing helicity.

Currently under the Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break. I expect the Hot Tower to add a convective anticyclone.
That should take care of the last of the PV Streamer that has been associated with the ULL off the GA coast.
It will also quickly stack the vorts.
BTW, GFS as usual, is incorrectly positioning the ARWB.

Very strong moisture infeed from the north, mid to low level.

Evil Twin, convective blob to the SE of the CoC indicating massive high TPW infeed.

Synoptically, this is the same setup as Laura only the infeeds are much better.

I said yesterday to watch the Evil Twin. Its here.
I said Friday that Sunday afternoon would likely be hairy.
Well, its pretty much a perfect setup for RI.

Buckle up and stay tuned.
Everyone in its path needs to get their everything together.