ATL: ETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

Moderator: S2k Moderators

Post Reply
Message
Author
User avatar
Highteeld
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2139
Age: 41
Joined: Tue Jan 30, 2018 9:10 pm
Location: Chicago

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1061 Postby Highteeld » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:35 pm

Eye temp picking back up
0 likes   
Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --

https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Top
crimi481
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 602
Joined: Thu Sep 09, 2004 4:47 pm

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1062 Postby crimi481 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:35 pm

Will it loop - stall -or go S to Pacific? Hard to know
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Kazmit
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2124
Age: 22
Joined: Mon Jul 25, 2016 8:49 am
Location: Williamsburg, VA / Bermuda

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1063 Postby Kazmit » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:37 pm

ClarCari wrote:Next Recon leaves in a little over an hour!! EST. 1:45PM CDT.

Fingers crossed!!

Where is it taking off from?
0 likes   
Igor 2010, Sandy 2012, Fay 2014, Gonzalo 2014, Joaquin 2015, Nicole 2016, Humberto 2019

I am only a tropical weather enthusiast. My predictions are not official and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. For official information, please refer to the NHC and NWS products.
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1064 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:38 pm

Image

Image
9 likes   
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1065 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:38 pm

Speck of >-20C inside the eye.
0 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1066 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:39 pm

EDIT: :uarrow:


Eye temp.?
Last edited by Iceresistance on Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:41 pm, edited 1 time in total.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5049
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1067 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:39 pm

aspen wrote:Speck of >-20C inside the eye.

Uh-oh :double:
0 likes   
B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25

Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Top
ClarCari
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 579
Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:02 am

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1068 Postby ClarCari » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:41 pm

Kazmit wrote:
ClarCari wrote:Next Recon leaves in a little over an hour!! EST. 1:45PM CDT.

Fingers crossed!!

Where is it taking off from?

It’s an AF plane so I think those fly from LA..
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1069 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:42 pm

ClarCari wrote:
Kazmit wrote:
ClarCari wrote:Next Recon leaves in a little over an hour!! EST. 1:45PM CDT.

Fingers crossed!!

Where is it taking off from?

It’s an AF plane so I think those fly from LA..

Which one? There was one from Texas.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
wx98
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:24 pm

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1070 Postby wx98 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:42 pm



You are not going to get a good estimation of eye temp until a VDM so it's probably useless to keep asking.
2 likes   
Top
ClarCari
Category 2
Category 2
Posts: 579
Joined: Thu Aug 13, 2020 11:02 am

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1071 Postby ClarCari » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:44 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
ClarCari wrote:
Kazmit wrote:Where is it taking off from?

It’s an AF plane so I think those fly from LA..

Which one? There was one from Texas.

Oh then I’m not sure. The POD doesn’t say the actual Plane just AFXXX.
IDK how to know until it takes off.
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1072 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:44 pm

wx98 wrote:


You are not going to get a good estimation of eye temp until a VDM so it's probably useless to keep asking.

Aspen figured it out.
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
underthwx
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 2362
Joined: Sat Jul 30, 2011 2:14 pm
Location: Brazoria County Texas

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1073 Postby underthwx » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:45 pm

ClarCari wrote:
Kazmit wrote:
ClarCari wrote:Next Recon leaves in a little over an hour!! EST. 1:45PM CDT.

Fingers crossed!!

Where is it taking off from?

It’s an AF plane so I think those fly from LA..


I think maybe they fly out of Biloxi?....53rd recon?
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
aspen
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 8818
Joined: Sat Oct 12, 2019 7:10 pm
Location: Connecticut, USA

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1074 Postby aspen » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:45 pm

I read that there’s also another recon flight scheduled to leave around 6pm, so if everything is going right, we should have at least two flights for the rest of the day.

The gap between recon means this is going to be far stronger than when the last flight left...that first pass is going to be crazy.
3 likes   
Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21

I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1075 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:46 pm

The pinhole eye is defying everything!
1 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
wx98
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 1383
Joined: Sat Aug 25, 2018 9:24 pm

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1076 Postby wx98 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:48 pm

ClarCari wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:
ClarCari wrote:It’s an AF plane so I think those fly from LA..

Which one? There was one from Texas.

Oh then I’m not sure. The POD doesn’t say the actual Plane just AFXXX.
IDK how to know until it takes off.

AF planes usually take off from Keesler Air Force Base in Biloxi unless there is a storm nearby that forces relocation to another base.
2 likes   
Top
supercane4867
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 4966
Joined: Wed Nov 14, 2012 10:43 am

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1077 Postby supercane4867 » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:49 pm

aspen wrote:I read that there’s also another recon flight scheduled to leave around 6pm, so if everything is going right, we should have at least two flights for the rest of the day.

The gap between recon means this is going to be far stronger than when the last flight left...that first pass is going to be crazy.

Good thing that they are coming during afternoon and early evening. I remember staying up until 3AM when tracking Patricia lol
0 likes   
Top
User avatar
cheezyWXguy
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 6108
Joined: Mon Feb 13, 2006 12:29 am
Location: Dallas, TX

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1078 Postby cheezyWXguy » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:52 pm

Iceresistance wrote:
wx98 wrote:
Iceresistance wrote:EDIT: :uarrow:


Eye temp.?


You are not going to get a good estimation of eye temp until a VDM so it's probably useless to keep asking.

Aspen figured it out.

He gave the most reliable estimate we have based on satellite, but the eye is what, 2x2 pixels in size? And as aric stated earlier, the true eye temp isn’t what is being depicted here, it’s probably 27-30C. Satellite, even rapid scan hi-res, does not have the ability to resolve these details accurately in such a small eye. We simply will not know until recon gets there
2 likes   
Top
User avatar
Iceresistance
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 9288
Age: 21
Joined: Sat Oct 10, 2020 9:45 am
Location: Tecumseh, OK/Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1079 Postby Iceresistance » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:52 pm

Any latest news on the Recon?
0 likes   
Bill 2015 & Beta 2020

Winter 2020-2021 :cold:

All observations are in Tecumseh, OK unless otherwise noted.

Winter posts are focused mainly for Oklahoma & Texas.

Take any of my forecasts with a grain of salt, refer to the NWS, SPC, and NHC for official information

Never say Never with weather! Because ANYTHING is possible!
Top
User avatar
ElectricStorm
Category 5
Category 5
Posts: 5049
Age: 24
Joined: Tue Aug 13, 2019 11:23 pm
Location: Skiatook, OK / Norman, OK

Re: ATL: ETA - Hurricane - Discussion

#1080 Postby ElectricStorm » Mon Nov 02, 2020 1:54 pm

Iceresistance wrote:Any latest news on the Recon?

You keep asking and we keep answering. Recon leaves in a little less than an hour. Another one leaves this evening.
11 likes   
B.S Meteorology, University of Oklahoma '25

Please refer to the NHC, NWS, or SPC for official information.
Top
Post Reply

Return to “2020”

Who is online

Users browsing this forum: No registered users and 8 guests