ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[plasticup]

Here is the latest model suite. Notice the TVCN consensus is south of the NHC track while the other models like GFS, Ukmet, Hwrf and Hmon are all east of the track. Why is the TVCN so far south. Is a greater weight for the Euro programmed into it??

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200729/bd4b7569465059a45b784d9da85f44c7.gif


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Yeah, interesting b/c the NHC hugs the TVCN and that’s about as big of a spread between TVCN & GFS/HWRF I’ve ever seen. Note, I think the Euro graphic is from 12z and I think 18z Euro was more NE closer to SFL.

There's really not that much spread at all. That's a very tight set of guidance. Whether it hits Florida or not is a matter of only a few hours or a couple hundred miles.

[SapphireSea]

Looking at the simulated sat image for the Hurricane models and they all tell the same story with subtle differences. I think the reality will be that a decimated LLC drifts into Florida and all other convection is sheared off to the NE. Looking at current conditions and how it's progressing, it's very likely this wont really get anywhere. I think the models cant resolve the decapitation that is coming.

[SFLcane]

Florida will get a batch of showers if this Indeed crosses over DR as 00z guidance is suggesting.

[toad strangler]

Florida will get a batch of showers if this Indeed crosses over DR as 00z guidance is suggesting.

Maybe a couple batches.

[TheStormExpert]

Florida will get a batch of showers if this Indeed crosses over DR as 00z guidance is suggesting.

[DestinHurricane]

Looking like it will be a great weekend for some boating in sunny south Florida. Couldn't gain enough latitude to get above the great wall of Hispaniola.

On to the next storm if there is one, pattern is setting up for inactivity.

[SouthFLTropics]

Florida will get a batch of showers if this Indeed crosses over DR as 00z guidance is suggesting.

Respectfully, I would pump the brakes on that thought. If there's nothing to disrupt (LLC) by the time it goes over, then I would suspect that the implications of a Hispaniola crossing would be far less. We very well could see a reignition of the storms on the North side of the island and the LLC develop there. I'd even venture that the island could possibly consolidate and help spin things up due to frictional forces.

[Stormcenter]

I agree Aric.

quote="Aric Dunn"]

Lots of NW Shear..

https://i.ibb.co/GHNS7hw/modezrpd-20200728-1800-animation.gif

None of the models really agree on anything..

Euro has NW shear, HWRF has SW Shear, GFS is just on crack. HMON is neutral.

long story short. pay little to no attention to the models until thursday.[/quote]

[AutoPenalti]

Looking like it will be a great weekend for some boating in sunny south Florida. Couldn't gain enough latitude to get above the great wall of Hispaniola.

On to the next storm if there is one, pattern is setting up for inactivity.

No. Just...

No.

[SapphireSea]

Florida will get a batch of showers if this Indeed crosses over DR as 00z guidance is suggesting.

Respectfully, I would pump the brakes on that thought. If there's nothing to disrupt (LLC) by the time it goes over, then I would suspect that the implications of a Hispaniola crossing would be far less. We very well could see a reignition of the storms on the North side of the island and the LLC develop there. I'd even venture that the island could possibly consolidate and help spin things up due to frictional forces.

Normally would agree, but deep low level easterlies, SAL incursion, and an approaching trough does not inspire much confidence that this will survive as a tropical system, especially if it's been weakened by land in that position. Guidance also hints that this will get shredded up by unfavorable shear, it may be why they are having issues at the end of the run with a decision.

[TheStormExpert]

Season cancel, see y’all next year!!!

[floridasun78]

Season cancel, see y’all next year!!!

funny post

[TheStormExpert]

Season cancel, see y’all next year!!!

funny post

I try!

[SFLcane]

00z NAM still intensifies PT9 north of Haiti.

[caneseddy]

00z NAM still intensifies PT9 north of Haiti.

It has it shooting the Mona Passage and missing the bulk of Hispaniola, which is why it intensifies it

[ColdMiser123]

Like the 18z Euro, the new ICON now has a center relocation just north of Hispaniola. Stronger than previous runs on its initial trek through the Bahamas.

[SFLcane]

Like the 18z Euro, the new ICON now has a center relocation just north of Hispaniola. Stronger than previous runs on its initial trek through the Bahamas.

Interesting..Thanks!

[caneseddy]

Like the 18z Euro, the new ICON now has a center relocation just north of Hispaniola. Stronger than previous runs on its initial trek through the Bahamas.

Yep and looks like landfall on the Upper Keys/extreme SE Florida and enters extreme Eastern Gulf

[WeatherEmperor]

Like the 18z Euro, the new ICON now has a center relocation just north of Hispaniola. Stronger than previous runs on its initial trek through the Bahamas.

Yep and looks like landfall on the Upper Keys/extreme SE Florida and it looks like it wants to enter the Gulf

Correct. It appears a little bit stronger compared to the previous run too




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[WeatherEmperor]

Like the 18z Euro, the new ICON now has a center relocation just north of Hispaniola. Stronger than previous runs on its initial trek through the Bahamas.

Yep and looks like landfall on the Upper Keys/extreme SE Florida and it looks like it wants to enter the Gulf

Correct. It appears a little bit stronger compared to the previous run too




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