ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[bella_may]

Track has shifted Slightly east. Still forecast to make landfall at 80 mph with higher gusts north and east of center

[Steve]

Track has shifted Slightly east. Still forecast to make landfall at 80 mph with higher gusts north and east of center

From the NHC: The official track forecast is about the same as the
previous one and close to the model consensus.

Looks about the same to me. I'm not sure about the MGC. Trajectory should determine whether or not the coast gets a second landfall or if the center rides up the east side of Lake Pontchartrain into like Pearl River County. It's going to be close either way.

[mpic]

Am I being silly with concern for family who is waiting until tomorrow morning to drive home to Charlotte from Gulf Shores? What I'm seeing are tropical force winds the whole way and it's a 9 hour trip. They are in their 70s.

[bella_may]

Track has shifted Slightly east. Still forecast to make landfall at 80 mph with higher gusts north and east of center

From the NHC: The official track forecast is about the same as the
previous one and close to the model consensus.

Looks about the same to me. I'm not sure about the MGC. Trajectory should determine whether or not the coast gets a second landfall or if the center rides up the east side of Lake Pontchartrain into like Pearl River County. It's going to be close either way.

A local met said it shifted slightly east. I couldn’t tell much difference either honestly

[tolakram]

The outer band of Zeta is very impressive.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL282020/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-AL282020-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif

Zeta probably wins the prise for “most symmetric outflow” observed in the Atlantic basin so far in 2020. It is certainly competing with Laura. Given the fact that Zeta retains its inner core, it will likely intensify more rapidly than expected in the short term, now that the centre is finally moving offshore and entering the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. The upper-air pattern, juxtaposed with ample moisture and decent SSTs, will certainly support a potential major hurricane in the short term. As of now, my best estimate for the peak intensity would be 95–105 knots, with winds at landfall likely verifying in the range of 85–95 knots.

stop trying to hype the storm, will be a cat 1

Since you don't answer PM's I'll say it here. Stop telling other users what to do and making accusations. If you have a problem with a post report it.

[Steve]

Am I being silly with concern for family who is waiting until tomorrow morning to drive home to Charlotte from Gulf Shores? What I'm seeing are tropical force winds the whole way and it's a 9 hour trip. They are in their 70s.

If they left early enough in the am, they're probably okay. If they wait until the afternoon or evening, that's another story.

[Iceresistance]

Zeta probably wins the prise for “most symmetric outflow” observed in the Atlantic basin so far in 2020. It is certainly competing with Laura. Given the fact that Zeta retains its inner core, it will likely intensify more rapidly than expected in the short term, now that the centre is finally moving offshore and entering the southernmost Gulf of Mexico. The upper-air pattern, juxtaposed with ample moisture and decent SSTs, will certainly support a potential major hurricane in the short term. As of now, my best estimate for the peak intensity would be 95–105 knots, with winds at landfall likely verifying in the range of 85–95 knots.

stop trying to hype the storm, will be a cat 1

Since you don't answer PM's I'll say it here. Stop telling other users what to do and making accusations. If you have a problem with a post report it.

I did not mean to start this, I never expected this to happen.

[mpic]

Am I being silly with concern for family who is waiting until tomorrow morning to drive home to Charlotte from Gulf Shores? What I'm seeing are tropical force winds the whole way and it's a 9 hour trip. They are in their 70s.

If they left early enough in the am, they're probably okay. If they wait until the afternoon or evening, that's another story.

Thank you! I'll try not to worry so much. They seem to be taking this as just another thunderstorm.

[ElectricStorm]

stop trying to hype the storm, will be a cat 1

And you know this for sure? Based on what?

by looking at the data, the atmosphere, and what the models are agreeing on.

I'd say it's the opposite actually... Zeta already looks better than Delta coming off the Yucatan, and it's going to have better conditions up to landfall than Delta did. Delta peaked as a Cat 3 before a Cat 2 landfall. Certainly a possibility with this one as well

[Iceresistance]

Zeta's inner core needs to rebuild in order to become a strong hurricane.

[ScottNAtlanta]

I am really worried about the rain aspect of this further inland. Here in N Georgia we just cant take much more rain. We had flooding a couple days ago from a moderate rain event. I have a sink hole that opened up near my street after Delta came through (thankfully far from the house).

[skyline385]

The long spiral band looks amazing, can't recall the last time i saw such gorgeous banding in a Tropical storm

[aspen]

Zeta's inner core needs to rebuild in order to become a strong hurricane.

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL282020/GEOCOLOR/500x500.jpg

Even with a shattered core, outflow and banding is spectacular. A couple of big hot towers building back a CDO should help the core recover.

[3090]

stop trying to hype the storm, will be a cat 1

And you know this for sure? Based on what?

by looking at the data, the atmosphere, and what the models are agreeing on.

Have you also looked at the intensity models?

[Stormcenter]

Zeta has gotten significantly larger.

[Steve]

Track has shifted Slightly east. Still forecast to make landfall at 80 mph with higher gusts north and east of center

From the NHC: The official track forecast is about the same as the
previous one and close to the model consensus.

Looks about the same to me. I'm not sure about the MGC. Trajectory should determine whether or not the coast gets a second landfall or if the center rides up the east side of Lake Pontchartrain into like Pearl River County. It's going to be close either way.

A local met said it shifted slightly east. I couldn’t tell much difference either honestly

I didn't look at the advisory plots, just the cone which still stretches to about the mouth of the MS River (as far as LA impacts).

I guess it's time to look at the forecast points from the discussion and see what they did. Okay the 10am actually gets it farther west in the Gulf (91.6 vs. 91.5), but because these are 12 hour plots on a blistering fast moving storm, it's hard to see how they overlap unless you side-by-side them. So that's what I did (removed everything but cone and track). I think what your met is saying - and the only difference I can tell on the two tracks) is that the 12th advisory (10am) landfalls a hair farther east on the MGC than the 4am one because the angle of approach has a slightly more eastern slant than it did at 4am which was bent a little farther toward the north when it approached the MGC.

10am
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... k#contents
INIT 27/1500Z 21.6N 89.5W 55 KT 65 MPH
12H 28/0000Z 23.1N 90.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
24H 28/1200Z 25.7N 91.6W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 29/0000Z 29.3N 89.9W 70 KT 80 MPH
48H 29/1200Z 34.2N 85.2W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
60H 30/0000Z 38.5N 76.5W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/1200Z 41.0N 66.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP

4am
https://www.nhc.noaa.gov/refresh/graphi ... k#contents
INIT 27/0900Z 21.0N 88.4W 60 KT 70 MPH...INLAND YUCATAN
12H 27/1800Z 22.3N 90.1W 65 KT 75 MPH...OVER WATER
24H 28/0600Z 24.4N 91.5W 75 KT 85 MPH
36H 28/1800Z 27.5N 91.2W 75 KT 85 MPH
48H 29/0600Z 31.7N 88.0W 55 KT 65 MPH...INLAND
60H 29/1800Z 36.5N 81.0W 30 KT 35 MPH...INLAND
72H 30/0600Z 40.3N 70.0W 45 KT 50 MPH...POST-TROP/EXTRATROP
96H 31/0600Z...DISSIPATED

[JamesRainier]

[tiger_deF]

You could fit several of our early season tropical storms inside Zeta's massive feeder band

Zeta's core is very diminished, but it is still intact, which likely indicates that steady deepening will begin when the storm moves fully off the Yucatan coast

[Blown Away]

Track has shifted Slightly east. Still forecast to make landfall at 80 mph with higher gusts north and east of center

From the NHC: The official track forecast is about the same as the
previous one and close to the model consensus.

Looks about the same to me. I'm not sure about the MGC. Trajectory should determine whether or not the coast gets a second landfall or if the center rides up the east side of Lake Pontchartrain into like Pearl River County. It's going to be close either way.

Track at MS landfall shifted E maybe a couple of miles. Go to the NHC interactive map and you can see it. IMO it won’t matter much it’s basically a big 50-80 mph gust storm moving @25mph as it approaches coast.

[GCANE]

Could be a bit north of forecast track