ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[HurricaneFrances04]

Meanwhile the GFS is shifting SW...again. Not even sure it has a closed low in 24 hours.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Trend tonight might be crashing into the DR helps....jump start the storm?

[WeatherEmperor]

Well...looks like it survives Hispanola so far on the 0z GFS




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[HurricaneFrances04]

Pretty much gone in 72 hours.

[SoupBone]

So far the GFS looks pretty different than multiple previous runs. It would have to move due north to hit its previous run.

[SFLcane]

Pretty much gone in 72 hours.

Yep way to much dry air gets choked.

[Steve]

ICON with the Charley-ish track if not the intensity. NAM 12km is west of the Bahamas. GFS at 84 is as well. Not sure why nobody is cranking this into anything serious. But I guess it's still July. CMC, Hurricane models and then the EURO are next. But we still need to look at a few of the next GFS plots to see if it can get this all the way to Florida or not.

Edit - 96 hours coming up on Miami. Weak, but a cool track for sure.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Slow mover in the Straits. If conditions were favorable it would not be good for South Florida. Hopefully that SW shear and dry air pans out.

[STRiZZY]

ICON with the Charley-ish track if not the intensity. NAM 12km is west of the Bahamas. GFS at 84 is as well. Not sure why nobody is cranking this into anything serious. But I guess it's still July. CMC, Hurricane models and then the EURO are next. But we still need to look at a few of the next GFS plots to see if it can get this all the way to Florida or not.

Edit - 96 hours coming up on Miami. Weak, but a cool track for sure.

Charley cruised the Caribbean then cut up the skinniest part of Cuba before it reached Florida.

[SoupBone]

That's a very drastic shift in the GFS. I wonder if the GFS-Para follows.

[CM2]

That's a very drastic shift in the GFS. I wonder if the GFS-Para follows.

I bet you 20 dollars, that I do not have, the Para is going to be radically different than this.

[Jr0d]

Trend tonight might be crashing into the DR helps....jump start the storm?

https://i.imgur.com/V7tqKiW.png

Would not be the first time the mountains of Hispanola helped jump start a LLC. It is too broad of a system to expect it to be shredded to nothing by the mountains.

Being a Floridian, I do not like the trend of the models, even if only its forecast to be a tropical storm. Its August, the water is hot, it wont take much for a storm to spin up quickly.

[toad strangler]

That's a very drastic shift in the GFS. I wonder if the GFS-Para follows.

There's nothing trackable yet so why not? Let see if a run coming up does the Triple Lindy into Cape Hatteras or New Orleans.

https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rq8zxQkoeDI

[Evil Jeremy]

FWIW, the 00z GFS at 102 hours is just off the Southern tip of Florida, from there through 168 it rides up the West coast, as a weak, pathetic, barely closed low.

It's the farthest West the model has been at this timeframe in any of it's runs since it decided to finally acknowledge PTC9 as existing late last week.

[lsuhurricane]

CMC with a biiiig shift west into the Gulf of Mexico. Somewhat similar to GFS

From Charleston to Tampa from run to run! Plenty of changes to come

[STRiZZY]

Interested to see what the Ukie does now.

[SoupBone]

CMC definitely switched up too. Big shift west. Hmmm

[CM2]

CMC definitely switched up too. Big shift west. Hmmm

Where are you getting the GEM run? Tropical Tidbits and Weatherus both do not have it yet.

[Hammy]

With the latest model output it seems like this has maybe another 24 hours to close off before the window closes--seems everything is trending downward now that the data from the recon earlier was ingested as this is the first time the GEM and GFS were in agreement on weakening.

[CM2]

With the latest model output it seems like this has maybe another 24 hours to close off before the window closes--seems everything is trending downward now that the data from the recon earlier was ingested as this is the first time the GEM and GFS were in agreement on weakening.

I believe I read from here that specific recon was not actually going to contribute data to the models and that this coming run is going to be the first model to feed data to the models.