ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

Track has shifted Slightly east. Still forecast to make landfall at 80 mph with higher gusts north and east of center

From the NHC: The official track forecast is about the same as the
previous one and close to the model consensus.

Looks about the same to me. I'm not sure about the MGC. Trajectory should determine whether or not the coast gets a second landfall or if the center rides up the east side of Lake Pontchartrain into like Pearl River County. It's going to be close either way.

Track at MS landfall shifted E maybe a couple of miles. Go to the NHC interactive map and you can see it. IMO it won’t matter much it’s basically a big 50-80 mph gust storm moving @25mph as it approaches coast.

Yeah. I got that in my subsequent post after comparing the tracks. Slightly more eastern angle of approach (to the MGC) on the 10am forecast.

[Shell Mound]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES16/ABI/SECTOR/GM/02/GOES16-GM-02-1000x1000.gif

For the first time, the latest visible frames suggest that the mid- and low-level centres are becoming fully aligned. If so, then I would anticipate possible RI within the next twelve to twenty-four hours. Precipitable water, like visible, indicates that moisture is ample, as is instability. Additionally, Zeta’s circulation extends well into the southern Caribbean, based on the presence of strong low-level inflow. Some very intense GoM cyclones exhibited a similar extension, e.g., Camille ‘69. Obviously, Zeta won’t even come close to Camille et al., but all this illustrates just how conducive the overall environment is. Unstable air extends westward almost to the mouth of the Rio Grande, based on the boundary between stratocumuli, including a gravity wave, and low-topped convection. Outflow has become extremely symmetrical as well as potent. A low-end major hurricane prior to landfall is becoming increasingly plausible. Zeta is likely to briefly attain peak winds on the order of 105 knots or so, followed by weakening to high-end Cat-2 status at the time of landfall.

[GCANE]

Looks like its setting up a feeder band from that 4000 CAPE pool to its west

[Stormgodess]

Hey all, thanks again for all the valuable info. Will be following.

Not sure how much Ive got to say about this one besides I'm so dang burnt out at this point. Im in a mobile home surrounded by trees in SE Louisiana and honestly dont even want to think about whether or not to think about going somewhere else, and this is coming from someone who is storm "phobic" and freaks out when I hear the word Hurricane.

This season has just been TOO DAMN MUCH for us down here!

[Sanibel]

When a cyclone weakens it sends its energy out in to its bands...

That's why that intense band is over the Yucatan Channel and eastern quadrant...

That robust energy seen in those cold-top colors should be drawn back in but it will take a while...

[Hurricane Mike]

Anyone know the next flight in?

[cheezyWXguy]

Starting to see some life in the bands to the west and southwest of the center. Moisture starting to stream in, but it’s main inflow channel is still situated solidly inside the Yucatán. Will be a few hours before it resumes strengthening, but I don’t think it will take a full day like delta did.

[Steve]

Hey all, thanks again for all the valuable info. Will be following.

Not sure how much Ive got to say about this one besides I'm so dang burnt out at this point. Im in a mobile home surrounded by trees in SE Louisiana and honestly dont even want to think about whether or not to think about going somewhere else, and this is coming from someone who is storm "phobic" and freaks out when I hear the word Hurricane.

This season has just been TOO DAMN MUCH for us down here!

Agreed, but it's been tons more bark than bite for New Orleans. This could be different. Take a look at the HWRF IR Depiction in the Models Thread and determine if you want to stay or not. Looks like tomorrow night, the Northshore is going to get hit fairly hard as the northern part of the eyewall/COC spreads across. Lots of pinks (-80 Celsius) depicted there. That warning goes to those in South Mississippi too. Keep your options open if you live in a mobile home that's not tied or that is surrounded by trees.

[jconsor]

Serious potential for wind damage well inland of Zeta's landfall given fast forward speed and favorable jet interaction.

 https://twitter.com/backinblack_wx/status/1321114466029871109

[JamesRainier]

2 hour difference

[skyline385]

The massive feeder band will probably push a lot of humidity into the Gulf and protect the core from dry air i am guessing

[ColdMiser123]

Structure with Zeta is still quite good, I would expect probably around 12 more hours of near steady intensity, followed by deepening, as it takes some time for tropical cyclones to re-intensify after crossing land.

Most guidance at this point actually now shows deepening until the moment of landfall.

[Stormgodess]

Hey all, thanks again for all the valuable info. Will be following.

Not sure how much Ive got to say about this one besides I'm so dang burnt out at this point. Im in a mobile home surrounded by trees in SE Louisiana and honestly dont even want to think about whether or not to think about going somewhere else, and this is coming from someone who is storm "phobic" and freaks out when I hear the word Hurricane.

This season has just been TOO DAMN MUCH for us down here!

Agreed, but it's been tons more bark than bite for New Orleans. This could be different. Take a look at the HWRF IR Depiction in the Models Thread and determine if you want to stay or not. Looks like tomorrow night, the Northshore is going to get hit fairly hard as the northern part of the eyewall/COC spreads across. Lots of pinks (-80 Celsius) depicted there. That warning goes to those in South Mississippi too. Keep your options open if you live in a mobile home that's not tied or that is surrounded by trees.

Thank you, and I know, we have been blessed, when so many have had their lives turned upside down. Will watch close. Im 15mins away from a safe structure so will decide to leave or not in the morning. The scariest part is leaving and never knowing what you are going to come back to. Even if its just 15 mins away. We have one really large tree near the house that was hit by lightening and losing its strength quickly. We HAVE to take it down but its HUGE and not going to be an easy process, I will likely head to my daughters either way.

[ColdMiser123]

Serious potential for wind damage well inland of Zeta's landfall given fast forward speed and favorable jet interaction.

https://twitter.com/backinblack_wx/status/1321114466029871109

I'm wondering if the reason guidance now shows very little weakening before landfall is related to being favorably placed in the right entrance region of the jet streak to the northwest, favoring more upper level divergence to counter lowering sea surface temperatures.

Zeta accelerating to the northeast will also allow it to spend less time over these cooler waters.

[Steve]

Hey all, thanks again for all the valuable info. Will be following.

Not sure how much Ive got to say about this one besides I'm so dang burnt out at this point. Im in a mobile home surrounded by trees in SE Louisiana and honestly dont even want to think about whether or not to think about going somewhere else, and this is coming from someone who is storm "phobic" and freaks out when I hear the word Hurricane.

This season has just been TOO DAMN MUCH for us down here!

Agreed, but it's been tons more bark than bite for New Orleans. This could be different. Take a look at the HWRF IR Depiction in the Models Thread and determine if you want to stay or not. Looks like tomorrow night, the Northshore is going to get hit fairly hard as the northern part of the eyewall/COC spreads across. Lots of pinks (-80 Celsius) depicted there. That warning goes to those in South Mississippi too. Keep your options open if you live in a mobile home that's not tied or that is surrounded by trees.

Thank you, and I know, we have been blessed, when so many have had their lives turned upside down. Will watch close. Im 15mins away from a safe structure so will decide to leave or not in the morning. The scariest part is leaving and never knowing what you are going to come back to. Even if its just 15 mins away. We have one really large tree near the house that was hit by lightening and losing its strength quickly. We HAVE to take it down but its HUGE and not going to be an easy process, I will likely head to my daughters either way.

Understood. But wasn't it you who had that fairly rough night with Delta a few weeks ago? (Think you said you were in Tangipahoa or Livingston?) This should be much more intense than that IMHO.

[Frank P]

Hey all, thanks again for all the valuable info. Will be following.

Not sure how much Ive got to say about this one besides I'm so dang burnt out at this point. Im in a mobile home surrounded by trees in SE Louisiana and honestly dont even want to think about whether or not to think about going somewhere else, and this is coming from someone who is storm "phobic" and freaks out when I hear the word Hurricane.

This season has just been TOO DAMN MUCH for us down here!

Agreed, but it's been tons more bark than bite for New Orleans. This could be different. Take a look at the HWRF IR Depiction in the Models Thread and determine if you want to stay or not. Looks like tomorrow night, the Northshore is going to get hit fairly hard as the northern part of the eyewall/COC spreads across. Lots of pinks (-80 Celsius) depicted there. That warning goes to those in South Mississippi too. Keep your options open if you live in a mobile home that's not tied or that is surrounded by trees.

Thank you, and I know, we have been blessed, when so many have had their lives turned upside down. Will watch close. Im 15mins away from a safe structure so will decide to leave or not in the morning. The scariest part is leaving and never knowing what you are going to come back to. Even if its just 15 mins away. We have one really large tree near the house that was hit by lightening and losing its strength quickly. We HAVE to take it down but its HUGE and not going to be an easy process, I will likely head to my daughters either way.

Best of luck Steve... if memory doesn’t fail me this could be the most tropical weather the MS coast has received since Katrina.. 15 years ago... too bad it’s a night storm and moving so fast... will be hard to get any good videos or pics on the Beach in Biloxi.. forecast for a 5-8 foot surge, but if it gets bigger and comes in as a strengthening Cat 1 might just get a little more...

[SconnieCane]

Serious potential for wind damage well inland of Zeta's landfall given fast forward speed and favorable jet interaction.

https://twitter.com/backinblack_wx/status/1321114466029871109

I'm wondering if the reason guidance now shows very little weakening before landfall is related to being favorably placed in the right entrance region of the jet streak to the northwest, favoring more upper level divergence to counter lowering sea surface temperatures.

Zeta accelerating to the northeast will also allow it to spend less time over these cooler waters.

Makes sense. So while we may not see RI through to landfall, this thing should at least be holding its own.

[Ryxn]

If Zeta attains major hurricane status, it would break the record for most major hurricane formations in the month of October with 3 and also be only the second time in history that 3 major hurricanes have been active anytime after September 30 and FIRST time in history more than 2 major hurricanes have FORMED after September 30.

Major Hurricanes active after September 30
2016 (3), Matthew, Nicole, Otto (current record)
2020 (3), Delta, Epsilon, Zeta/Eta

Major Hurricane formations after September 30
2016 (2), Nicole, Otto. The season did NOT have 3 as Matthew became a major hurricane before October 1.
2020 (3), Delta, Epsilon, Zeta, Eta maybe? Theta?

There could even be a record 4th major hurricane formation after September 30 if something forms in the Caribbean mid to late November.

It's shaping up to be an insane and historic end to the hurricane season.

[Hurricane Mike]

Video Update on Zeta
https://www.youtube.com/watch?v=rAnfS8IFDlY

[Hurricane_Apu]

Serious potential for wind damage well inland of Zeta's landfall given fast forward speed and favorable jet interaction.

https://twitter.com/backinblack_wx/status/1321114466029871109

I'm wondering if the reason guidance now shows very little weakening before landfall is related to being favorably placed in the right entrance region of the jet streak to the northwest, favoring more upper level divergence to counter lowering sea surface temperatures.

Yikes. I wonder if this thing will produce a sting jet like Isaias did...