ATL: ZETA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[psyclone]

We've got a good sized TC entering central gulf and cold air advection induced strato cumulus as cold air bleeds off the lower texas coast. that is impressive. Another sweltering day here as we march through "Aug-tober"...

[Stormgodess]

Agreed, but it's been tons more bark than bite for New Orleans. This could be different. Take a look at the HWRF IR Depiction in the Models Thread and determine if you want to stay or not. Looks like tomorrow night, the Northshore is going to get hit fairly hard as the northern part of the eyewall/COC spreads across. Lots of pinks (-80 Celsius) depicted there. That warning goes to those in South Mississippi too. Keep your options open if you live in a mobile home that's not tied or that is surrounded by trees.

Thank you, and I know, we have been blessed, when so many have had their lives turned upside down. Will watch close. Im 15mins away from a safe structure so will decide to leave or not in the morning. The scariest part is leaving and never knowing what you are going to come back to. Even if its just 15 mins away. We have one really large tree near the house that was hit by lightening and losing its strength quickly. We HAVE to take it down but its HUGE and not going to be an easy process, I will likely head to my daughters either way.

Understood. But wasn't it you who had that fairly rough night with Delta a few weeks ago? (Think you said you were in Tangipahoa or Livingston?) This should be much more intense than that IMHO.

YEH! Delta's winds were surprising! I still cant wrap my head around why they seemed so much more damaging than TS force winds Ive experienced before?

When we got home from Delta, that same large sick lightening struck tree had dropped a limb about 15 ft long, and the width of a dinner plate onto our front porch and about 5 inches from the glass storm door! It took down a big section of porch railing.

[northjaxpro]

We've got a good sized TC entering central gulf and cold air advection induced strato cumulus as cold air bleeds off the lower texas coast. that is impressive. Another sweltering day here as we march through "Aug-tober"...

38 degrees at DFW Airport and 77 degrees in the Big Easy currently. Ice and snow across North TX and into Oklahoma currently, while Hurricane Zeta is gathering itself again getting ready for landfall on Louisiana tomorrow late afternoon into the evening. Talk about two extreme weather anomalies not terribly far way at from each other at all . This is why I love this science and made it my living!

[Frank P]

Sure looks kinda funky on the IR att and not seeing much happen near the core as the outer band convection is expanding outward?

[Steve]

Agreed, but it's been tons more bark than bite for New Orleans. This could be different. Take a look at the HWRF IR Depiction in the Models Thread and determine if you want to stay or not. Looks like tomorrow night, the Northshore is going to get hit fairly hard as the northern part of the eyewall/COC spreads across. Lots of pinks (-80 Celsius) depicted there. That warning goes to those in South Mississippi too. Keep your options open if you live in a mobile home that's not tied or that is surrounded by trees.

Thank you, and I know, we have been blessed, when so many have had their lives turned upside down. Will watch close. Im 15mins away from a safe structure so will decide to leave or not in the morning. The scariest part is leaving and never knowing what you are going to come back to. Even if its just 15 mins away. We have one really large tree near the house that was hit by lightening and losing its strength quickly. We HAVE to take it down but its HUGE and not going to be an easy process, I will likely head to my daughters either way.

Best of luck Steve... if memory doesn’t fail me this could be the most tropical weather the MS coast has received since Katrina.. 15 years ago... too bad it’s a night storm and moving so fast... will be hard to get any good videos or pics on the Beach in Biloxi.. forecast for a 5-8 foot surge, but if it gets bigger and comes in as a strengthening Cat 1 might just get a little more...

Thanks Frank. Same here. We've probably had to deal with 10-15 storms since then (well 6 just this year alone), but nothing was really of actual consequence outside of Olga last year and certainly Isaac in 2012 which was underrated. I'm thinking this will be similar to Isaac but much less prolonged (that was a 2 day event or so, this will not be). Good luck over there on the coast, and I hope the initial bands don't bring you guys and points farther inland in S MS/S AL any tornadoes.

[psyclone]

Sure looks kinda funky on the IR att and not seeing much happen near the core as the outer band convection is expanding outward?

Has it gotten the "Isidore" therapy? recall in 2002 Isidore had an encounter with the Yucatan and ended up permanently broadened..

[Steve]

Thank you, and I know, we have been blessed, when so many have had their lives turned upside down. Will watch close. Im 15mins away from a safe structure so will decide to leave or not in the morning. The scariest part is leaving and never knowing what you are going to come back to. Even if its just 15 mins away. We have one really large tree near the house that was hit by lightening and losing its strength quickly. We HAVE to take it down but its HUGE and not going to be an easy process, I will likely head to my daughters either way.

Understood. But wasn't it you who had that fairly rough night with Delta a few weeks ago? (Think you said you were in Tangipahoa or Livingston?) This should be much more intense than that IMHO.

YEH! Delta's winds were surprising! I still cant wrap my head around why they seemed so much more damaging than TS force winds Ive experienced before?

When we got home from Delta, that same large sick lightening struck tree had dropped a limb about 15 ft long, and the width of a dinner plate onto our front porch and about 5 inches from the glass storm door! It took down a big section of porch railing.

I think the difference was the level of sustained winds. Even if they're only sustained in the mid 30's (say below TS strength), that's already blowing pretty good. With some 40's or 50's gusts on top of that, it can get howling. Amp that up by 10-15mph, and that's what's likely to happen in SELA (would guess there will be some sustained in the 40's to 50's - at least at the coast) and probably some gusts in to the 60's and 70's. Northshore probably gets a fairly similar hit since this will be moving super fast at landfall and accelerating if the track takes it across Lake Pontchartrain instead of east of there.

[northjaxpro]

Thank you, and I know, we have been blessed, when so many have had their lives turned upside down. Will watch close. Im 15mins away from a safe structure so will decide to leave or not in the morning. The scariest part is leaving and never knowing what you are going to come back to. Even if its just 15 mins away. We have one really large tree near the house that was hit by lightening and losing its strength quickly. We HAVE to take it down but its HUGE and not going to be an easy process, I will likely head to my daughters either way.

Best of luck Steve... if memory doesn’t fail me this could be the most tropical weather the MS coast has received since Katrina.. 15 years ago... too bad it’s a night storm and moving so fast... will be hard to get any good videos or pics on the Beach in Biloxi.. forecast for a 5-8 foot surge, but if it gets bigger and comes in as a strengthening Cat 1 might just get a little more...

Thanks Frank. Same here. We've probably had to deal with 10-15 storms since then (well 6 just this year alone), but nothing was really of actual consequence outside of Olga last year and certainly Isaac in 2012 which was underrated. I'm thinking this will be similar to Isaac but much less prolonged (that was a 2 day event or so, this will not be). Good luck over there on the coast, and I hope the initial bands don't bring you guys and points farther inland in S MS/S AL any tornadoes.

This is the other major concern with Zeta, which I bolded. The banding features with the cyclone are very impressive, and I am really concerned of a significant tornado outbreak, mainly the quick spin-up variety , which is normal with any landfalling cyclone. But, the dynamics with Zeta potentially could be even more of an enhanced concern tomorrow as Zeta approaches the coast and eventually treks inland.

[Frank P]

Sure looks kinda funky on the IR att and not seeing much happen near the core as the outer band convection is expanding outward?

Has it gotten the "Isidore" therapy? recall in 2002 Isidore had an encounter with the Yucatan and ended up permanently broadened..

Yep, and never fully recovered from her encounter with the Yucatan, she was forecast to strengthen again in the Gulf but core damage was too much for her and came in as a TS... she did bring in with her a pretty good surge as I recall...

[supercane4867]

Tropical storm meets winter storm

[AnnularCane]

Sure looks kinda funky on the IR att and not seeing much happen near the core as the outer band convection is expanding outward?

Has it gotten the "Isidore" therapy? recall in 2002 Isidore had an encounter with the Yucatan and ended up permanently broadened..

Yep, and never fully recovered from her encounter with the Yucatan, she was forecast to strengthen again in the Gulf but core damage was too much for her and came in as a TS... she did bring in with her a pretty good surge as I recall...

Isidore's a "he!" I was in NOLA then and never even lost power. Lili was a different story.

[tiger_deF]

Zeta really looks to be moving WNW, the convective mass that I would define as the center has barely gained latitude since leaving the Yucatan. Is anyone else noticing this?

This is the strangest storm I have ever seen. If someone showed me an image of the storm right now last night I wouldn't believe them

[GCANE]

The latest thermal profile is cut off west of the CoC, but from what I can tell the cold pool has dramatically deepened.
Structure appears to be much improved, a new cold pool is directly under the warm core.
The deeper the cold pool, the more rapid intensification is likely and also will have the ability to maintain intensity under more adverse conditions.
In other words, this could become a steam roller.

[LowerAlabamaTider]

Zeta really looks to be moving WNW, the convective mass that I would define as the center has barely gained latitude since leaving the Yucatan. Is anyone else noticing this?

This is the strangest storm I have ever seen. If someone showed me an image of the storm right now last night I wouldn't believe them

Just throwing this out there . . . Is there any way Zeta could end up going due W of WSW, and not go Northward into the Front? I realize that's not what any models have come close to showing, but in looking at this it made me wonder?

[GCANE]

I just checked COAMPS and it is forecasting a minimum in energy flux input (latent, enthalpy, and sensible) at about when Zeta gets to 26N.
North of that it picks up more energy input from all three.
Not sure where its coming from, maybe the water (WISHE) or more atmospheric effects such as CAPE or TPW.
Whatever the case, it does predict intensification up to landfall.

[Stormgodess]

Tropical storm meets winter storm

https://i.imgur.com/ptogJQe.jpg

https://i.imgur.com/5HF6irU.png

My initial question on Zeta was about the possibility of it running into that cold front....

If that happens would the opposing temps colliding produce stronger storm cells within its outer bands???

[aspen]

Zeta really needs to produce some new convection if it’s ever going to re-intensify and take advantage of that abnormally favorable Gulf environment. Maybe Dmax could yield some new hot towers. The HWRF has been showing deep convection redeveloping overnight during the last few runs.

[northjaxpro]

Zeta really needs to produce some new convection if it’s ever going to re-intensify and take advantage of that abnormally favorable Gulf environment. Maybe Dmax could yield some new hot towers. The HWRF has been showing deep convection redeveloping overnight during the last few runs.

Yep. I think just after 00Z this evening, we will began to see convection fire off near the center as Zeta moves farther away from the Yucatan.

[GCANE]

Looks like a consistent warm-core feature is developing

[JamesRainier]

Zeta really looks to be moving WNW, the convective mass that I would define as the center has barely gained latitude since leaving the Yucatan. Is anyone else noticing this?

I saw what you mean here. https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =ir-dvorak