ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[STRiZZY]

00z UKmet takes an HWRF style track south of PR and into the DR across the top of Cuba, into the Gulf and swings into Tampa Monday afternoon.

Pretty much all models have shifted towards the Euro in the sense that they stay SW and emerge in the Gulf.

What will the king show tonight?

[CM2]

Australian model has it strengthening back to a TS/CAT1 storm before hitting Sarasota. Anything can happen at this point folks.

[WxEp]

UKMET takes PTC9 directly over Hispaniola and keeps it weak for the duration of the run.

TROPICAL STORM 09L ANALYSED POSITION : 13.8N 57.9W

ATCF IDENTIFIER : AL092020

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
0000UTC 29.07.2020 0 13.8N 57.9W 1008 34
1200UTC 29.07.2020 12 15.6N 62.1W 1007 32
0000UTC 30.07.2020 24 15.8N 65.1W 1005 35
1200UTC 30.07.2020 36 17.6N 67.5W 1004 43
0000UTC 31.07.2020 48 18.4N 71.3W 1004 46
1200UTC 31.07.2020 60 20.1N 73.2W 1004 42
0000UTC 01.08.2020 72 21.2N 75.7W 1004 41
1200UTC 01.08.2020 84 22.3N 78.5W 1006 34
0000UTC 02.08.2020 96 23.4N 80.4W 1005 38
1200UTC 02.08.2020 108 24.5N 81.8W 1006 32
0000UTC 03.08.2020 120 25.9N 82.3W 1005 34
1200UTC 03.08.2020 132 27.5N 82.7W 1007 24
0000UTC 04.08.2020 144 29.8N 81.5W 1007 34

[caneseddy]

HWRF-Para takes a Cat 1 into Miami. Has been very consistent in bringing a hurricane into Miami for the past several runs

Meanwhile regular old HWRF stops off the coast of Miami and looks like it wants to ride it up the Florida East Coast

Even with interaction with Hispaniola, both models are finding conditions more favorable in the Bahamas. Could be because they shoot this thing through Hispaniola at a fast speed

[WeatherEmperor]

HWRF is right off the coast of Miami Dade / Broward counties




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[WeatherEmperor]

HMON is right off the coast of Palm Beach county




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[chaser1]

00z UKmet takes an HWRF style track south of PR and into the DR across the top of Cuba, into the Gulf and swings into Tampa Monday afternoon.

Pretty much all models have shifted towards the Euro in the sense that they stay SW and emerge in the Gulf.

What will the king show tonight?

One-way ticket to the GOM, with a lay over in Haiti

[CM2]

Recent trend has now been further west
HWRF

HWRF-Para

HMON

GEM

And these are all the 00z runs which is why the Euro is not here. Something to state is that we're still a little off from actually knowing where this thing can end up. Recon is avoiding where it's center probabaly is so the data they collect will probabaly be no good. Models are going to be complete dumpster fires till landfall somewhere in the US.

[fci]

Trend tonight might be crashing into the DR helps....jump start the storm?

https://i.imgur.com/V7tqKiW.png

Would not be the first time the mountains of Hispanola helped jump start a LLC. It is too broad of a system to expect it to be shredded to nothing by the mountains.

Being a Floridian, I do not like the trend of the models, even if only its forecast to be a tropical storm. Its August, the water is hot, it wont take much for a storm to spin up quickly.

On the contrary the trend should be a more southern track given the relocation of the center SW. It's going to have to turn NW to get North of The Islands. I'd expect to see track adjustments south and west, IMO

[caneseddy]

HWRF landfalls around Broward County/Palm Beach line as Cat 1

HMON landfalls in Palm Beach as a Cat 1

[SouthFLTropics]

HWRF has a mirror track to 1979 David, albeit weaker.


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[caneseddy]

GFS ensembles all show turn north into the Carolinas with the exception of one or two

[STRiZZY]

00z Euro looks a smidge south through 42hrs

[USTropics]

Interesting the 00z GFS ensembles are more in agreement with the previous GFS-para runs, not the current operational:

[STRiZZY]

Interesting the 00z GFS ensembles are more in agreement with the previous GFS-para runs, not the current operational:

https://i.imgur.com/8wq2ypG.png

Probably breaking down the ridge too easily if I had to guess as to why.

[SouthFLTropics]

Anyone seen the GFS Para tonight? Thought it’d be out by now.


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[SouthFLTropics]

At 72 hours the Euro looks like it dives WSW over western Cuba. Am I seeing things? Nothing should surprise me anymore. It is 2020 after all.


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[STRiZZY]

Anyone seen the GFS Para tonight? Thought it’d be out by now.


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It's 60hrs out on Weathermodels and it's over Crooked Island in the Bahamas 1001mb.

[USTropics]

Interesting the 00z GFS ensembles are more in agreement with the previous GFS-para runs, not the current operational:

https://i.imgur.com/8wq2ypG.png

Probably breaking down the ridge too easily if I had to guess as to why.

We'd likely have a stronger system with these tracks as well. Some pass through the Mona Passage, the rest over the eastern portion of Hispaniola. If you examine the topography, most of the elevation lies to the west and central parts of Hispaniola:

[Keldeo1997]

Intersesting