ATL: MARCO - Remnants - Discussion

[aspen]

Yep, Marco has passed his peak.

[CrazyC83]

Yep, Marco has passed his peak.

At least for now. Small storms can ramp up and down fast.

[CyclonicFury]

Small storms like Gonzalo and Marco are evidence that rapid intensification can abruptly come to a halt if conditions become slightly less favorable. Considering the global model guidance is bearish on much additional intensification, Marco may not even be able to attain hurricane strength.

[3090]

Small storms like Gonzalo and Marco are evidence that rapid intensification can abruptly come to a halt if conditions become slightly less favorable. Considering the global model guidance is bearish on much additional intensification, Marco may not even be able to attain hurricane strength.

Would be excellent..

[3090]

Yep, Marco has passed his peak.

So what you are saying is, he will go all down hill from here and will become a TD, or wave?

[3090]

Strange look for a weakening storm..eye?

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... roduct=vis

[aspen]

Yep, Marco has passed his peak.

So what you are saying is, he will go all down hill from here and will become a TD, or wave?

Shear looks to remain at least somewhat of an issue all the way to landfall, so my best guess is a moderate to strong TS (45-60 kt) for the majority of Marco’s time in the Gulf. Remember, I’m not a met, so take this with a couple pinches of salt.

Keep in mind that recon is still finding a very compact and defined circulation. It could take a lot to completely break that down.

[Kingarabian]

Yep, Marco has passed his peak.

At least for now. Small storms can ramp up and down fast.

Yeah I'll give it another 36 hours before it actually starts to fall apart.

[xironman]

Recon finds a slightly weaker Marco. Pressure looks to be about 997 now, winds probably down to 50 kt.

We are closing in on dmin and it is not a big cyclone that would not be influenced.

[tolakram]

[wxman57]

Very good discussion by Levi tonight on his YouTube channel (tropicaltidbits.com). He doesn't see how it can be a hurricane on the Gulf coast, either. Too much shear & dry air.

[Kazmit]

This is just so hard to wrap my head around:

https://i.imgur.com/WQ69lsG.jpg

That's just crazy and bad news for Louisiana. I cant recall 2 Hurricanes hitting almost the same area within a few days of each other.....

Fay and Gonzalo both landfalled in Bermuda the same week in 2014.

[Frank P]

https://imgur.com/U2AReUS

Looks like it holding its own and not at all weakening viewing that vis sat loop... booming convection off to the NE quad and near the core...

[869MB]

Very good discussion by Levi tonight on his YouTube channel (tropicaltidbits.com). He doesn't see how it can be a hurricane on the Gulf coast, either. Too much shear & dry air.

I strongly agree with this. I think everyone interested in both storms should take 20 minutes out of their schedule this evening and watch his latest video update if they already haven’t. The biggest wildcard as far as I’m concerned is whether or not Laura makes it south of Cuba (yeah I know this is Marco’s thread).

[toad strangler]

Very good discussion by Levi tonight on his YouTube channel (tropicaltidbits.com). He doesn't see how it can be a hurricane on the Gulf coast, either. Too much shear & dry air.

I strongly agree with this. I think everyone interested in both storms should take 20 minutes out of their schedule this evening and watch his latest video update if they already haven’t. The biggest wildcard as far as I’m concerned is whether or not Laura makes it south of Cuba (yeah I know this is Marco’s thread).

I'd advise everybody to put Levi's videos on page 1 of your tracking sked for every system there is.

[3090]

https://imgur.com/U2AReUS

Pretty impressive, for a storm that will be facing a very sheared environment sometime in the next day or two. Cannot see Marco becoming much more than a high end TS before the shredder hits him.

[supercane4867]

A weaker Marco means much of the boiling waters in the Gulf will be left untouched when Laura arrives.

[ConvergenceZone]

A weaker Marco means much of the boiling waters in the Gulf will be left untouched when Laura arrives.

Exactly, what Marco doesn't do, Laura will do.......

[GCANE]

Decreasing shear now to the west, north, east of the CoC.

[GCANE]

Dry air and vorticity continue to decrease in the Rossby Wave