ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

A monster in the making. Someone get an aircraft carrier out there so recon can refuel and stay there all night.

They Probably should be doing continuous flights at this point..

[Hammy]

A monster in the making. Someone get an aircraft carrier out there so recon can refuel and stay there all night.

They Probably should be doing continuous flights at this point..

When's the next flight, 8am?

[Aric Dunn]

Its a hurricane..

[NDG]

There she goes!

012230 2736N 09407W 8416 01533 0026 +183 //// 123061 062 044 011 01
012300 2734N 09408W 8416 01530 0022 +184 //// 123060 062 044 010 01
012330 2732N 09409W 8416 01525 0023 +178 //// 123064 066 044 012 01
012400 2731N 09410W 8411 01527 0019 +176 //// 127071 072 045 019 01

[gatorcane]

Convection looks to be shrinking to me again on the NW side. Might be some dry air it is taking in, not a lot but enough to keep any RI from happening:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

[Hammy]

There she goes!

012230 2736N 09407W 8416 01533 0026 +183 //// 123061 062 044 011 01
012300 2734N 09408W 8416 01530 0022 +184 //// 123060 062 044 010 01
012330 2732N 09409W 8416 01525 0023 +178 //// 123064 066 044 012 01
012400 2731N 09410W 8411 01527 0019 +176 //// 127071 072 045 019 01

Surface winds aren't quite there yet.

[Highteeld]

FL winds are well over hurricane force, that's interesting

[Aric Dunn]

There she goes!

012230 2736N 09407W 8416 01533 0026 +183 //// 123061 062 044 011 01
012300 2734N 09408W 8416 01530 0022 +184 //// 123060 062 044 010 01
012330 2732N 09409W 8416 01525 0023 +178 //// 123064 066 044 012 01
012400 2731N 09410W 8411 01527 0019 +176 //// 127071 072 045 019 01

and that is not even in the eyewall yet or in the deepest convection..

[tropicwatch]

Looks like the first significant storm of the season brewing.

[Aric Dunn]

the EYE is definitely clearing out on satellite now.

[NDG]

There she goes!

012230 2736N 09407W 8416 01533 0026 +183 //// 123061 062 044 011 01
012300 2734N 09408W 8416 01530 0022 +184 //// 123060 062 044 010 01
012330 2732N 09409W 8416 01525 0023 +178 //// 123064 066 044 012 01
012400 2731N 09410W 8411 01527 0019 +176 //// 127071 072 045 019 01

Surface winds aren't quite there yet.

My point is earlier today the highest flight level winds were in the mid 40s if memory serves me correct, not up to at least 72 knots, that's a nice increase

[northjaxpro]

Not quite a cane yet, but she is getting very close. Maybe by 11 p.m.

[CrazyC83]

Based on current data blending the SFMR, FL winds and surface data, 55 kt seems a good estimate - but more data could increase that.

[Highteeld]

One thing i have noticed is that the strongest sfmr data point doesn't always correspond to the strongest FL wind data point (strongest SFMR will happen closer to the eye compared to FL winds)... wonder if that's due to the stadium effect (IE the strongest winds aren't vertically aligned)

[wx98]

This next set from recon will be telling...

[HurricaneEdouard]

surface ob.. now 995 mb and gusting 40mph winds !

we might be sub 990 already.

those meso vorts in the eye wall are a sure sign..

Which surface ob is that (link/copy+paste if possible)? Lowest (extrap) surface pressures I've seen from this pass is 1001 mb (nowhere near the eyewall yet, though).

39 knots from a dropsonde at 1:18Z. 72 knot FL winds, 45 knot SFMR at 1:24. So far, a blend would be around 55 to 60 knots... but this next recon ob is going to be very, very interesting. Let's see if surface catches up to FL!

[aspen]

72 kt FL winds!

[Hammy]

Small dry slot to the west seems like it's filling back in.

[NDG]

Convection looks to be shrinking to me again on the NW side. Might be some dry air it is taking in, not a lot but enough to keep any RI from happening:

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... product=ir

You don't give up, don't you.
RI may not happen but both GFS, HWRF and Euro continue to show strengthening until landfall.

[Aric Dunn]

Still have to sample the remainder of the everything.. it will likely be upgraded.