ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[Shell Mound]

At 72 hours the Euro looks like it dives WSW over western Cuba. Am I seeing things? Nothing should surprise me anymore. It is 2020 after all.


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The fact that this system does not have a defined centre is probably the biggest single factor that is hampering the models at this stage.

[Shell Mound]

The 500-mb pattern on the 00Z ECMWF practically begs the system to “pull a Donna” and ride the East Coast from west-central FL to New England.

As mentioned previously, the trend toward a slower, more amplified NHEM pattern continues, with hints of “ridge bridging” and +NAO emerging.

[STRiZZY]

At 72 hours the Euro looks like it dives WSW over western Cuba. Am I seeing things? Nothing should surprise me anymore. It is 2020 after all.


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The fact that this system does not have a defined centre is probably the biggest single factor that is hampering the models at this stage.

Plus the recon missions just began. I'm about to go to sleep but I'll be surprised if when I wake up the 06z/12z runs tomorrow aren't different in some significant way. Kudos to the models if they're not.

[SFLcane]

06z Icon much stronger with a hurricane just of SFL.

[jlauderdal]

06z Icon much stronger with a hurricane just of SFL.

https://iili.io/dAbVHl.gif

icon moves it through pr/dr "quickly" and really isn't showing much disruption which seems reasonable

[AdamFirst]

6z HWRF so far wants to skirt this through the Mona Passage, scraping the north coast of Hispaniola rather than dissecting the island SE to NW.

[SFLcane]

06z HMON with a hurricane landfall in SFL..

[Aric Dunn]

Well I guess we knew the 00z shift was coming. now we are in full hurricane dennis mode..

its going to tunr now.... nope..

ok now its going to turn.. darn it nope.

ok ok .. now its going to turn..

[AdamFirst]

HWRF shifted east. Looks to stay off the Florida coast. Direct impacts on Abaco and Grand Bahama however. Cat 1

[Shell Mound]

HWRF shifted east. Looks to stay off the Florida coast. Direct impacts on Abaco and Grand Bahama however. Cat 1

As usual, the G(E)FS-based HWRF is likely underestimating the western extension of the ridge vs. the EPS-based guidance. Also crucial:

Although the GFS-and ECMWF-based SHIPS intensity guidance shows considerable southwesterly vertical wind shear of 20-30 kt in the 72-96 h period when the disturbance is over the Straits, the global model fields show that this is self-induced shear caused by the SHIPS model incorporating the system's impressive upper-level outflow winds in its shear calculations.

–NHC

Again, even the HWRF/HMON are likely underestimating the potential intensity of this system as it nears the Gulf Stream.

[SFLcane]

HWRF shifted east. Looks to stay off the Florida coast. Direct impacts on Abaco and Grand Bahama however. Cat 1

Nope a shift south from 00z.

[chris_fit]

00Z Euro Ens


06Z GFS Ens


00Z UKMET Ens

[St0rmTh0r]

This would be a pretty classic storm track over all the islands into Florida. I don't expect it to be super strong but can't rule out anything at this point.

[Aric Dunn]

6z EURO take the center well south of Hispaniola.. but it still heavily lopsided to the north. which given the current setup and state of the system that seems very unlikely to be that lopsided.

I am leaning towards south of hispaniola completely at this point.

[Aric Dunn]

by 42 hours it is tangled up in the mountains with a reformation on the NW coast. but little latitude gain.

[HurricaneFrances04]

6z EURO take the center well south of Hispaniola.. but it still heavily lopsided to the north. which given the current setup and state of the system that seems very unlikely to be that lopsided.

I am leaning towards south of hispaniola completely at this point.

I wonder if it keeps trying to do a center reformation to where all the heavy convection is to the north.

[Aric Dunn]

6z EURO take the center well south of Hispaniola.. but it still heavily lopsided to the north. which given the current setup and state of the system that seems very unlikely to be that lopsided.

I am leaning towards south of hispaniola completely at this point.

I wonder if it keeps trying to do a center reformation to where all the heavy convection is to the north.

the model is yes.. but in reality, it appears it wont be lopsided..

[St0rmTh0r]

It's going to have to start moving north really soon if these model runs are going to verify. Looking at real time data it definitely seems its not.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Just watched the latest HWRF on tropical tidbits and got seasick. Center was zigzagging all over the place geeze

[aspen]

Since the 00z CMC has initialized PTC-9 rather well, I guess it’s worth talking about. The run tracks PTC-9 through Hispaniola and north of Cuba like the NHC track, but gets it further in the Gulf and has it make landfall in the Florida Panhandle in 5/6 days.