ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SFLcane]

I think the models were just a little off lol

Thoughts on when this gets named? Noticed HWRF, HMON, ICON, HWRF-para all intensify PTD9 pretty quickly as it leaves DR or Cuba toward SFL.

Well, most of the models insist on a heavily north lopsided convective mass that reforms a center north of the islands.. we dont have that...

so those solutions north of Hispaniola look less and less likely at this point.

Plenty of variables but then there will not be much left if it travels the entire island chain.

[Vdogg]

https://i.imgur.com/oOpq3xy.gif

Convection definitely increasing and my observation is a broad LLC @15.8/62.2

Radar data from Guadeloupe suggest any LLC is much farther south than your estimate—below 15°N, in fact. Currently the broad rotation observed is at the mid-levels, while a sharp surface trough is present, without any clear LLC as of now, despite the very strong convection present. The presence of convection does indicate that low-level convergence is present, but the rapid forward movement is still preventing anything from “closing off.” Bottom line: as soon as this system slows down, watch out.

Those Coordinates are not that far off.. it is definitely somewhere SW of Guadalupe and moving west. per radar. looks fairly well defined and circular. I personally had 15.6 N

Can you post a link to the radar please?

[Aric Dunn]

Radar data from Guadeloupe suggest any LLC is much farther south than your estimate—below 15°N, in fact. Currently the broad rotation observed is at the mid-levels, while a sharp surface trough is present, without any clear LLC as of now, despite the very strong convection present. The presence of convection does indicate that low-level convergence is present, but the rapid forward movement is still preventing anything from “closing off.” Bottom line: as soon as this system slows down, watch out.

Those Coordinates are not that far off.. it is definitely somewhere SW of Guadalupe and moving west. per radar. looks fairly well defined and circular. I personally had 15.6 N

Can you post a link to the radar please?

https://www.barbadosweather.org/Composi ... 1596022857

[wxman57]

Thoughts on when this gets named? Noticed HWRF, HMON, ICON, HWRF-para all intensify PTD9 pretty quickly as it leaves DR or Cuba toward SFL.

Well, most of the models insist on a heavily north lopsided convective mass that reforms a center north of the islands.. we dont have that...

so those solutions north of Hispaniola look less and less likely at this point.

Plenty of variables but then there will not be much left if it travels the entire island chain.

Agree, traveling across the DR and/or Cuba is not a recipe for survival. Center looks like it is south of 15N, BTW.

[SFLcane]

Recon is in route!

[Aric Dunn]

Recon is in route!

yeah quick flight.. lets hope this is a center pass mission and not some weird survey mission.

[St0rmTh0r]

Looks like this thing is coming together this morning. Now the big question is how far west does it go and much do the islands affect it?

[toad strangler]

IF .... IF there is a viable center to 92L and it's strengthening when approaching DR it would have to traverse the eastern portion of the island to perhaps avoid getting it's teeth knocked out.

[Blown Away]

NHC 8am says 15.1/62.1, stick with them, but I say 15.8/62.1.

[Aric Dunn]

https://i.imgur.com/1xs3QAg.gif
https://i.imgur.com/FqrVXk8.jpg

NHC 8am says 15.1/62.1, stick with them, but I say 15.8/62.1.

close enough.. no need to nit pick.

pretty obvious we have an llc and it said no to the models... I dont want to play nice..

[SFLcane]

You can see inflow bands developing. Sure looks like it won’t be to long before a well established llc forms.

[tailgater]

Just getting back from a road trip and wow PTC9 trucking along at 23 mph westward and seems to be organizing with almost perfect outflow to the northwest.

[wxman57]

May not be more than a wave when it reaches Florida after crossing diagonally across the DR then encountering dry air and shear.

[alan1961]

I posted this image last monday just gone and i said then this invest would be further
south through the island chain and so it is..i think it may stay a touch further south and maybe avoid Hispaniola
and go over Cuba than the models are forcasting in the next few days..just a hunch, nothing scientific.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Well 92L looks determined to try and be a Carib cruiser. The more Northerly turn will come but it is taking its sweet time. Now that it actually appears to be consolidated instead of a massive circulation with smaller circs all around hopefully accuracy of the model tracks will improve. Has consistently stayed west of guidance thus far in its life.

[toad strangler]

May not be more than a wave when it reaches Florida after crossing diagonally across the DR then encountering dry air and shear.

Yeah, that would be a classic death to cyclone track. I'm not sold on the shear though.

[Aric Dunn]

[jlauderdal]

Recon is in route!

yeah quick flight.. lets hope this is a center pass mission and not some weird survey mission.

based on yesterday afternoon, they can just monitor this board and use it for for instructions on where to look for a center

[Vdogg]

https://i.imgur.com/1xs3QAg.gif
https://i.imgur.com/FqrVXk8.jpg

NHC 8am says 15.1/62.1, stick with them, but I say 15.8/62.1.

Looking at that rotation I can see where they would come up with that, but that CDO is quite displaced (which is why it looks closer to 15). That convection really needs to wrap around for this to really take off.

[Aric Dunn]

i would wager we have a well defined and deepening llc at this point.