ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[SoupBone]

Since the 00z CMC has initialized PTC-9 rather well, I guess it’s worth talking about. The run tracks PTC-9 through Hispaniola and north of Cuba like the NHC track, but gets it further in the Gulf and has it make landfall in the Florida Panhandle in 5/6 days.

That landfall is the big bend area, not the panhandle. Close though.

[SCUBAdude]

One has to remember that a full one third of the time the storm winds up outside of the NHC cone. That is the margin of error.

[ConvergenceZone]

Unlike Hanna, even if this DOES develop later on in the period, it’s going to be moving so fast that it’s not going to have the chance to do anything. No wonder most of the models aren’t developing it much

[Blown Away]

06z NAVGEM... Cat 1/2 into SFL

[Shell Mound]

Unlike Hanna, even if this DOES develop later on in the period, it’s going to be moving so fast that it’s not going to have the chance to do anything. No wonder most of the models aren’t developing it much

It’s still odd that the global models drastically underestimated a slower-moving Hanna and then initially overestimated this system—both in the very near term.

[jconsor]

 https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1288480505525088256

[SoupBone]

What is going on with the GFS-Para? It is still insisting on a hard right hook before Florida. How close is it to being rolled out for full use?

[caneseddy]

https://i.imgur.com/KAq1PTV.gif
06z NAVGEM... Cat 1/2 into SFL

Seems like a reasonable path. Almost identical to NHC. Intensity is doubtful but you never know

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS continues to develop the northern part of the wave "jumping" the center around the island so that is moves just north of Hispaniola.

[BobHarlem]

12Z Icon keeps it weak and then over Dominican Republic and eventually goes into Miami then exits around Daytona, and then another weak hit on Wilmington, NC. Tries to get some strength going in the South Bahamas, but fails.

[SouthFloridawx]

I really think we should have a closed off center before all this talk about models and where it's going.

[TheStormExpert]

I really think we should have a closed off center before all this talk about models and where it's going.

I agree with you, but if this thing goes over Hispaniola especially Haiti it will likely struggle to become anything significant due to the mountainous terrain.

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1288480505525088256

So is this the 06z Euro that isn’t viewable on Tropical Tidbits? If so that’s a huge East shift!

[sponger]

Very exciting for July but we need a center. I always believe down the middle of the cone is the safest place to be five days out.

[gatorcane]

The 12Z GFS is coming in with a bit lower pressure than the previous runs through 60 hours so far.

[BobHarlem]

What is with the 12Z GFS Gymnastics over Puerto Rico?

[SouthFloridawx]

That's what I'm saying...

What is with the 12Z GFS Gymnastics over Puerto Rico?

[SoupBone]

https://twitter.com/yconsor/status/1288480505525088256

So is this the 06z Euro that isn’t viewable on Tropical Tidbits? If so that’s a huge East shift!

There have been some pretty big flip flops from East Coast to Eastern GoM in the last several model runs for pretty much all of the models.

[gatorcane]

12Z GFS 78 hours. Looks like a slight east shift and the vorticity is a bit more defined than the previous run. This shows a stronger system, no matter how slight,will go more poleward.

[gatorcane]

Looks like the 12Z GFS likes this riding up the east coast of Florida but staying relatively weak. If it were to happen like the GFS, peninsula Florida wouldn't see much as most of the weather would be over the Gulf stream and points east.