ATL: ARTHUR - Post-Tropical

[GCANE]

Big improvement in LL Vort as well.

[toad strangler]

Overall satellite and radar presentation not impressive tonight. Still has a long ways to go. As gator mentioned rainfall never makes onshore mainland sfl.

This didn’t age well. It’s raining all over S FL

[SFLcane]

Overall satellite and radar presentation not impressive tonight. Still has a long ways to go. As gator mentioned rainfall never makes onshore mainland sfl.

This didn’t age well. It’s raining all over S FL

Yes sir! I just tweeted an image of my weather station 2+ inches of rainfall since midnight at the house from 90L.

[jlauderdal]

Overall satellite and radar presentation not impressive tonight. Still has a long ways to go. As gator mentioned rainfall never makes onshore mainland sfl.

This didn’t age well. It’s raining all over S FL

Yes sir! I just tweeted an image of my weather station 2+ inches of rainfall since midnight at the house from 90L.

https://i.imgur.com/1iM6IYS.jpg

3.24 since midnight at my place....looking at the activity inbound(from the east), 4+ looks attainable by noon. 5+ if the train keeps rolling, these systems can easily "dry out" over land especially with next to zero surface heating.

[GCANE]

Looking at visible satellite, its obvious the at or near surface circulation is now well north of Havana.

[TheStormExpert]

Overall satellite and radar presentation not impressive tonight. Still has a long ways to go. As gator mentioned rainfall never makes onshore mainland sfl.

This didn’t age well. It’s raining all over S FL

Yes sir! I just tweeted an image of my weather station 2+ inches of rainfall since midnight at the house from 90L.

https://i.imgur.com/1iM6IYS.jpg

Up here in NE Palm Beach County it’s been zilch.

The NWS keeps insisting that we’ll get 1-2 inches but I highly doubt that as most of the rainfall seems to remain to the south.

[cycloneye]

Recon canceled.

Special Tropical Weather Outlook
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL
850 AM EDT Fri May 15 2020

For the North Atlantic...Caribbean Sea and the Gulf of Mexico:

Special Tropical Weather Outlook issued to discuss the potential
for tropical or subtropical development near the northwest Bahamas.

A trough of low pressure located over the Straits of Florida
continues to produce disorganized shower activity and gusty winds
across the Florida Keys, portions of southeast Florida, and
the northwestern Bahamas. Gradual development of this system is
expected, and it will likely become a tropical or subtropical storm
on Saturday when it is located near the northwestern Bahamas. Later
in the weekend and early next week, the system is expected to move
generally northeastward over the western Atlantic.

Regardless of development, the disturbance will continue to bring
heavy rainfall to portions of the Florida Keys, southeast
Florida and the Bahamas through Saturday. Tropical-storm-force
wind gusts are also possible across portions of the Florida Keys,
southeast Florida, and the Bahamas during the next day or so.
In addition, hazardous marine conditions are expected along
the Florida east coast and in the Bahamas where Gale Warnings are
in effect. Dangerous surf conditions and rip currents are possible
along portions of the southeast U.S. coast this weekend and
early next week. See products from your local weather office and
High Seas Forecasts for more details. The Air Force Reserve
Hurricane Hunter aircraft scheduled to investigate the system today
has been canceled, but an aircraft is scheduled to investigate the
disturbance tomorrow, if necessary. The next Special Tropical
Weather Outlook on this system will be issued by 3 PM EDT today, or
earlier, if necessary.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...80 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.

&&

High Seas Forecasts issued by the National Weather Service can be
found under AWIPS header NFDHSFAT1, WMO header FZNT01 KWBC, and
available on the Web at ocean.weather.gov/shtml/NFDHSFAT1.shtml.

$$
Forecaster Cangialosi

[Aric Dunn]

well on a side note.. with the two vorts rotating around the average center. this might bring more rain into south floirda later today.

[cycloneye]

Location: 23.8°N 81.3°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

[Aric Dunn]

Windfield is clearly closed with two vorts rotating around. as mentioned the NE vort may rotate far enough to the nw to bring even more rain into South florida..

until this starts to move overall to provide some relatively lower shear it will have a tough time.

[GCANE]

Windfield is clearly closed with two vorts rotating around. as mentioned the NE vort may rotate far enough to the nw to bring even more rain into South florida..

until this starts to move overall to provide some relatively lower shear it will have a tough time.

https://i.ibb.co/7Q9NjnK/Capture.png

Very dry air at lower-level over the vort last 12 hrs or so.
However, the shortwave is moving in and beginning to add some moisture.
IMHO, should start to see some convection fire up in a few hours.

[SFLcane]

Location: 23.8°N 81.3°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

https://i.imgur.com/TbwrPte.png

Unbelievable still spinning in the same place down there. Not very impressive at all this morning can’t disagree with recon being canceled.

[Ian2401]

Location: 23.8°N 81.3°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

https://i.imgur.com/TbwrPte.png

Unbelievable still spinning in the same place down there. Not very impressive at all this morning can’t disagree with recon being canceled.

Was it still supposed to be in the same place by this time?

[Aric Dunn]

Location: 23.8°N 81.3°W
Maximum Winds: 30 kt Gusts: nan kt
Minimum Central Pressure: 1012 mb
Environmental Pressure: 1013 mb
Radius of Circulation: 120 NM
Radius of Maximum Wind: 60 NM

https://i.imgur.com/TbwrPte.png

Unbelievable still spinning in the same place down there. Not very impressive at all this morning can’t disagree with recon being canceled.

Was it still supposed to be in the same place by this time?

not really no.. should have already been moving .. with a reformation somewhere to the NE

[GCANE]

Judging by the clouds over Cuba, south of the swirl, there may be a sudden shift to more west winds.

[NDG]

Finally seeing some pressure falls compared to 24 hrs ago across the FL keys and FL Straights, 5-7mb drop.
Is shaping up like the typical early season sheared hybrid system, circulation still remains broad but better than yesterday afternoon.

[typhoonty]

Here are my two cents. The reason why 90L is hanging around the straits for longer than expected is because the nontropical feature at the mid and upper levels which was the catalyst for it's initial development has sheared out and ejected to the NE. Leaving a very shallow yet warm core low at the surface. Since its so shallow, it is feeling the low level easterly flow. Once the shortwave propagates east and initiates convection and associated pressure falls, it'll start moving NE in accordance to the mid level flow.

[lhpfish]

Still raining here in Pompano, it looks like another nice squall is setting up offshore and on it's way.

Will be curious to see if that dry air slot between Miami and Islamorada starts to fill in with activity.

[Aric Dunn]

Judging by the clouds over Cuba, south of the swirl, there may be a sudden shift to more west winds.

yeah current surface obs from Havana, Matanzas and offhsor Bouy/ships show a closed wind field with a central low pressure with that naked vort.

Matanzas should switch to west as that vort moves closer.

with convection waning associated with the vort to the NE and some increasing moisture coming in at the mid levels .. should see convection fire off between Cuba and keys over the next several hours.

unless we get a redevelopment of the center east of key largo.

[Aric Dunn]

yeah the mesoscale models are all indicating a center reformation anywhere from middle keys to east of homestead over the next 6 hours.

then it rapidly organizes.