ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[drezee]

 https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1267450325516066817

[Aric Dunn]

There is far less of a GYRE motion today compared to yesterday.

The Overall diameter of the vorticity interaction has shrunk. Probably why a lot of the EPS show just a small cyclonic loop and it never drops back SW over land.

given this current trend I am leaning more towards this developing very quickly over the BOC and rather then doing a series of loops or a large one... that it stalls and just meanders before moving NNE .

after that depending on timing with the trough it either gets picked up or turned back west.

[NDG]

I am not buying the whole thing about moving back over MX after redeveloping over the southern BOC, dying out and another system redeveloping north of the Yucatan P.
I have noticed that as a whole the system has been moving further north than anticipated due to less ridging over the NW GOM than what models were showing a few days ago.
My thinking is that it will stay over water over the next 2-3 days then start moving north.

[aspen]

https://twitter.com/DCAreaWx/status/1267450325516066817

If it keeps up this organization by the time it moves over the BOC, we could see very quick development into TD3 or Cristobal. Perhaps it could be a TC by the end of the day or early tomorrow. 93L has a very good shot of becoming the earliest third named storm in the Atlantic basin.

[BYG Jacob]

Looks better organized over land than it did over water did yesterday

[MGC]

93L looks to be spinning up on visible sat loop this morning. Not a whole lot of obs in Yucatan to see if a surface circulation is present. Should move out over the BOC later today.....MGC

[Dean4Storms]

I'm beginning to question whether it ever moves back toward the southern BOC, if the deepest convection remains on its eastern periphery it might emerge off the Northern Coast of the Yucatan Peninsula with the weak center continuing to get pulled into that deep convection.

[Nancy Smar]

FWC-N issues a TCFA on 93L at 1400Z.

SUBJ/TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT //
WTNT22 KNGU 011400
REF/A/FLEWEACEN NORFOLK VA/010900Z JUN 20//
RMKS/ 1. FORMATION OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE
WITHIN 100 NM EITHER SIDE OF A LINE FROM 17.6N 89.8W TO 17.8N 92.1W
WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY
ISSUANCE OF NUMBERED TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME.
WINDS IN THE AREA ARE ESTIMATED TO BE 15 TO 20 KNOTS. METSAT
IMAGERY AT 011200Z INDICATES THAT A CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED
NEAR 17.6N 90.0W. THE SYSTEM IS MOVING WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS.
2. REMARKS: MAXIMUM SUSTAINED SURFACE WINDS ARE ESTIMATED AT
15 TO 20 KNOTS. MINIMUM SEA LEVEL PRESSURE IS ESTIMATED TO BE NEAR
1007 MB. THE POTENTIAL FOR THE DEVELOPMENT OF A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL
CYCLONE WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS IS HIGH. FORMATION OF A TROPICAL
CYCLONE IS POSSIBLE OVER THE BAY OF CAMPECHE WITHIN THE NEXT 12 TO
24 HOURS. AVAILABLE DATA DOES NOT JUSTIFY ISSUENCE OF NUMBERED
TROPICAL CYCLONE WARNINGS AT THIS TIME. SURFACE WINDS OVER THE BAY
OF CAMPECHE ARE CURRENTLY 15-20 KTS. THESE WINDS HOWEVER ARE
EXPECTED TO INCREASE TO 25-30 KTS BY TONIGHT AS THE LOW PRESSURE
SYSTEM MOVES OFF THE YUCATAN COAST. METSAT IMAGERY AT 011155Z
INDICATES THAT THE BROAD CIRCULATION CENTER IS LOCATED INLAND
YUCATAN PENINSULA NEAR 17.5N 89.4W. THE SYSTEM IS SLOWLY MOVING WEST
AT 5 KNOTS.
3. THIS ALERT WILL BE REISSUED, UPGRADED TO WARNING OR CANCELLED BY 021400Z.
4. SEE REF A FOR DETAILS ON A TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT
LOCATED NEAR 30.5N 57.8W//

[GCANE]

I am not seeing a distinct dryline today and a strong LL moisture infeed.
IMHO, setup was better yesterday then today for development in the BoC.

[tailgater]

Hey guys don’t know if is it me or what. It looks like radar site in Sabancuy has it right on the coast but looking at the visible satellite images it’s centered pretty close to the middle of the Yucatán peninsula heading North or NNW. Maybe mid and low level Vort are separate.

[wayne1701]

History of other systems, land friction has tightened the circulation.

[GCANE]

Hey guys don’t know if is it me or what. It looks like radar site in Sabancuy has it right on the coast but looking at the visible satellite images it’s centered pretty close to the middle of the Yucatán peninsula heading North or NNW. Maybe mid and low level Vort are separate.

An UL vort is pushing down on it, keeping it from stacking.

[hurricaneCW]

I am not buying the whole thing about moving back over MX after redeveloping over the southern BOC, dying out and another system redeveloping north of the Yucatan P.
I have noticed that as a whole the system has been moving further north than anticipated due to less ridging over the NW GOM than what models were showing a few days ago.
My thinking is that it will stay over water over the next 2-3 days then start moving north.

CMC shows this scenario. Basically it stays as one system that slowly moves north and west over time. However I wouldn't discount the Euro either.

Future Dolly would partially be formed by the remnants of Christobal unless the NHC decides it's still Christobal.

If Euro is correct then it's very possible 93L rapidly develops in BoC before hitting Mexico. The southern BoC is notorious for rapid storm development.

Regardless of what happens with 93L, models are pretty confident we'll be seeing at least a TS approaching TX/LA.

[Aric Dunn]

Hey guys don’t know if is it me or what. It looks like radar site in Sabancuy has it right on the coast but looking at the visible satellite images it’s centered pretty close to the middle of the Yucatán peninsula heading North or NNW. Maybe mid and low level Vort are separate.

Yes the Low level circ is right on the coast ... the MLC on sat is lagging behind. should see convection fire over center as it moves offshore today.

[NDG]

I am not buying the whole thing about moving back over MX after redeveloping over the southern BOC, dying out and another system redeveloping north of the Yucatan P.
I have noticed that as a whole the system has been moving further north than anticipated due to less ridging over the NW GOM than what models were showing a few days ago.
My thinking is that it will stay over water over the next 2-3 days then start moving north.

CMC shows this scenario. Basically it stays as one system that slowly moves north and west over time. However I wouldn't discount the Euro either.

Future Dolly would partially be formed by the remnants of Christobal unless the NHC decides it's still Christobal.

If Euro is correct then it's very possible 93L rapidly develops in BoC before hitting Mexico. The southern BoC is notorious for rapid storm development.

Regardless of what happens with 93L, models are pretty confident we'll be seeing at least a TS approaching TX/LA.

That's what the Euro's operational run showed last night but a lot of its members keeps the system over water, and it has been the trend of more of its members keeping it over water.

[chaser1]

Hey guys don’t know if is it me or what. It looks like radar site in Sabancuy has it right on the coast but looking at the visible satellite images it’s centered pretty close to the middle of the Yucatán peninsula heading North or NNW. Maybe mid and low level Vort are separate.

An UL vort is pushing down on it, keeping it from stacking.

Which should be reasonably overcome IF continued convective bursting continues to allow the large UL anticyclone to build further west and continue to warm the upper layers.

[Aric Dunn]

it is incredibly clear where the center is. and has become quite well defined the last few hours as it is near the coast and pretty much right ontop of the radar so its only looking maybe 100 up.

watch the loop and its very clear

[GCANE]

The UL vort is getting stronger, convection weaker.
No significant pressure fall in the BoC.

[MarioProtVI]

it is incredibly clear where the center is. and has become quite well defined the last few hours as it is near the coast and pretty much right ontop of the radar so its only looking maybe 100 up.

watch the loop and its very clear

https://i.ibb.co/BwsnNrg/202006011430.gif
https://i.ibb.co/vchYbYT/bbbbbbb.gif

If this trend continues we may see TD 3 (or a POTC 3 if NHC doesn’t fully believe it’s formed but needs to issue warnings) as soon as 5pm..

[aspen]

it is incredibly clear where the center is. and has become quite well defined the last few hours as it is near the coast and pretty much right ontop of the radar so its only looking maybe 100 up.

watch the loop and its very clear

https://i.ibb.co/BwsnNrg/202006011430.gif
https://i.ibb.co/vchYbYT/bbbbbbb.gif

If this trend continues we may see TD 3 (or a POTC 3 if NHC doesn’t fully believe it’s formed but needs to issue warnings) as soon as 5pm..

I think POTC 3 is quite likely for the 5 pm update, especially since it’s already impacting land and will impact other areas in only a few days.