EPAC: DOUGLAS - Remnants

[Yellow Evan]

Also not a biggest fan of the current intensity estimate though there's nothing to justify a higher intensity estimate here analytically speaking. Same can't be said for 7L.

[Yellow Evan]

Actually 55 knots is good at least until we get a good microwave pass. Dry air is still being ingested from the core from time to time and it's made remarkably little progress for 24 hours now. SST's are going to start becoming an issue in about 36 hours so the clock is ticking now.

[Yellow Evan]

22/1130 UTC 11.7N 128.6W T4.5/4.5 DOUGLAS -- East Pacific

Can't say I can have a strong sense on what SAB is thinking here.

[Extratropical94]

BT remains at 55 kts despite the bullish T4.5 estimates.

08E DOUGLAS 200722 1200 11.6N 128.9W EPAC 55 998

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Eye spy...

[aspen]

Eye spy...
https://i.ibb.co/Fgc1jph/goes17-ir-08-E-3.gif

Maybe RI is finally commencing. I’m going to bet 70 kt for 18z.

[Nancy Smar]

EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 0, 116N, 1289W, 60, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 30, 30, 60, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, RJB, 260, 14, , , 12, NEQ, 90, 90, 60, 90,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 0, 116N, 1289W, 60, 0, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, RJB, 260, 14, , , 12, NEQ, 90, 90, 60, 90,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 3, 118N, 1295W, 60, 996, TS, 34, NEQ, 70, 30, 30, 60, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, RJB, 265, 13, , , 12, NEQ, 90, 90, 60, 90,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 3, 118N, 1295W, 60, 996, TS, 50, NEQ, 20, 0, 0, 20, 0, 0, 0, 65, 0, , 0, RJB, 265, 13, , , 12, NEQ, 90, 90, 60, 90,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 12, 120N, 1314W, 75, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 40, 40, 70, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0, , 0, RJB, 275, 12,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 12, 120N, 1314W, 75, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 10, 10, 30, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0, , 0, RJB, 275, 12,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 12, 120N, 1314W, 75, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 10, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 90, 0, , 0, RJB, 275, 12,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 24, 131N, 1341W, 85, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 50, 40, 80, 0, 0, 0, 105, 0, , 0, RJB, 295, 14,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 24, 131N, 1341W, 85, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 105, 0, , 0, RJB, 295, 14,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 24, 131N, 1341W, 85, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 15, 0, 0, 10, 0, 0, 0, 105, 0, , 0, RJB, 295, 14,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 36, 144N, 1370W, 95, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 60, 40, 80, 0, 0, 0, 115, 0, , 0, RJB, 295, 16,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 36, 144N, 1370W, 95, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 30, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 115, 0, , 0, RJB, 295, 16,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 36, 144N, 1370W, 95, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 115, 0, , 0, RJB, 295, 16,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 48, 157N, 1400W, 90, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 90, 60, 50, 80, 0, 0, 0, 110, 0, , 0, RJB, 295, 16,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 48, 157N, 1400W, 90, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 40, 0, 0, 0, 110, 0, , 0, RJB, 295, 16,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 48, 157N, 1400W, 90, 0, HU, 64, NEQ, 20, 15, 10, 20, 0, 0, 0, 110, 0, , 0, RJB, 295, 16,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 60, 170N, 1430W, 80, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 50, 40, 80, 0, 0, 0, 100, 0, , 0, RJB, 295, 16,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 60, 170N, 1430W, 80, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 40, 30, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 100, 0, , 0, RJB, 295, 16,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 72, 180N, 1461W, 70, 0, HU, 34, NEQ, 80, 50, 40, 70, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0, , 0, RJB, 290, 16,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 72, 180N, 1461W, 70, 0, HU, 50, NEQ, 30, 20, 20, 30, 0, 0, 0, 85, 0, , 0, RJB, 290, 16,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 96, 190N, 1520W, 60, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 75, 0, , 0, RJB, 280, 14,
EP, 08, 2020072212, 03, OFCL, 120, 200N, 1580W, 50, 0, TS, 34, NEQ, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 0, 60, 0, , 0, RJB, 280, 14,

[aspen]

Several blobs of convection are spinning around the eye...this is about to bomb. Wouldn’t be surprised if we have a high end Cat 1 or low end Cat 2 by 18z.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Well that certainly closed off in a hurry. That band wrapped in quickly. The Euro thinks this will be high end TS for HI

[Nancy Smar]

WTPZ43 KNHC 221456
TCDEP3

Hurricane Douglas Discussion Number 9
NWS National Hurricane Center Miami FL EP082020
500 AM HST Wed Jul 22 2020

Douglas has resumed strengthening, after remaining steady state for
almost 24 hours. The system has developed a ragged eye during the
past couple of hours, although the cirrus from the inner-core
convection has been obscuring that feature somewhat. There is a
wide range among the satellite intensity estimates--between 55 kt
and 77 kt--and the latest objective guidance is right at the
hurricane threshold. Therefore, Douglas has been upgraded to a
65-kt hurricane, the first of the 2020 eastern Pacific season.
During the period of reliable records, this is the 4th latest date
on which the first hurricane of the season has formed.

Douglas continues to move westward, or 265/13 kt, due south of a
mid-level ridge which extends from the Baja California peninsula to
140W. This ridge is not expected to change much in strength or
position in the coming days, and Douglas is therefore expected to
move westward or west-northwestward, gradually gaining latitude,
during the entire forecast period. There is very little spread
among the track models, although the new suite of models is a
little bit faster compared to the previous forecast. The updated
NHC forecast has been adjusted accordingly, although it should be
noted that the overall forecast path has changed very little.

With Douglas's improved structure, low shear and warm sea surface
temperatures (28-29C) should support further strengthening during
the next 36 hours or so. There's still a significant chance of
rapid intensification during that period, with the GFS- and
ECWMF-based SHIPS RI guidance both over 50 percent. After that
time, oceanic heat content values fall below zero along Douglas's
forecast track, and it is likely that the hurricane would begin to
gradually weaken, although not considerably so since vertical shear
is not expected to increase until about day 4. SHIPS, HCCA, and
the Florida State Superensemble are in very good agreement,
especially during the first part of the forecast period, and so the
NHC intensity forecast closely follows those solutions. This new
forecast shows a slightly higher peak intensity compared to
previous forecasts.


Key Messages:

1. Douglas is expected to move near or over portions of the
Hawaiian Islands this weekend, and there is an increasing chance
that strong winds and heavy rainfall could affect portions
of the state beginning on Sunday. Interests on the Hawaiian
Islands should continue to monitor the progress of Douglas.


FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 22/1500Z 11.8N 129.5W 65 KT 75 MPH
12H 23/0000Z 12.0N 131.4W 75 KT 85 MPH
24H 23/1200Z 13.1N 134.1W 85 KT 100 MPH
36H 24/0000Z 14.4N 137.0W 95 KT 110 MPH
48H 24/1200Z 15.7N 140.0W 90 KT 105 MPH
60H 25/0000Z 17.0N 143.0W 80 KT 90 MPH
72H 25/1200Z 18.0N 146.1W 70 KT 80 MPH
96H 26/1200Z 19.0N 152.0W 60 KT 70 MPH
120H 27/1200Z 20.0N 158.0W 50 KT 60 MPH

$$
Forecaster Berg

[DorkyMcDorkface]

Woooooo, my name is put to good use after all!

[supercane4867]

HWRF got that classic Hawaiian look lol

[drezee]

Douglas just made a "fist", RI is imminent. It will be a major.

[Kingarabian]

Finally a hurricane. The EPAC hex is over.



Little dry around the eyewall. So intensity fluctuations are possible.

[Shell Mound]

Douglas just made a "fist", RI is imminent. It will be a major.

We’ve certainly seen a number of very intense C/EPAC major hurricanes in a similar thermodynamic environment, à la Daniel ‘06. Given conducive upper-air conditions and low vertical wind shear, along with ongoing structural evolution, Douglas has a good chance to reach high-end Cat-3 or even low-end Cat-4 status within the next few days. Outflow is improving notably in the western quadrant, with strong divergence with height providing foci for lift, juxtaposed with access to the nearby ITCZ and hints of dual jet streaks providing ventilation. I would be not be even remotely shocked if Douglas somehow surprises everyone and reaches 120-125 knots within the next thirty-six hours. A potential MH entering the CPAC during an oncoming, albeit weak, La Niña episode is certainly somewhat impressive.

[Kingarabian]

Douglas just made a "fist", RI is imminent. It will be a major.

We’ve certainly seen a number of very intense C/EPAC major hurricanes in a similar thermodynamic environment, à la Daniel ‘06. Given conducive upper-air conditions and low vertical wind shear, along with ongoing structural evolution, Douglas has a good chance to reach high-end Cat-3 or even low-end Cat-4 status within the next few days. Outflow is improving notably in the western quadrant, with strong divergence with height providing foci for lift, juxtaposed with access to the nearby ITCZ and hints of dual jet streaks providing ventilation. I would be not be even remotely shocked if Douglas somehow surprises everyone and reaches 120-125 knots within the next thirty-six hours.

Also with Daniel 2006, it was forecast to reach Hawaii as a tropical storm before easterly shear significantly weakened it. Does have some of its vibes, but Daniel 06 was classic beast and this has a lot of work to do still.

[Kingarabian]

First visible for Douglas:


Maybe a stronger Douglas could feel the CPAC weakness and lift north more than anticipated and spare Hawaii? I know a TS hit looks slouchy, but we shouldn't forget Iselle 2014 caused 70million worth of damage to Puna Big Island, a county with a population of 30,000.

[Yellow Evan]

Classic case of eye becoming apparent with a CDO bursting and overshooting the eye. Likely a mid-grade Cat 1, and we could see some serious RI tonight. I see Daniel 06 thrown around in this thread. Surprised people remember that but it's a good though not perfect comparison here as Daniel was much further east and I doubt today's models would have missed its slow down as much as they did back then.

[aspen]

Eye starting to show up again on visible:

[Astromanía]

I'm SO happy :'(