ATL: HANNA - Remnants - Discussion

[GCANE]

Man, I had zoom out on this.
Big jet of infeed from the SW where the high CAPE is.
Everything low-level on the west side is starting to turn into it.
Lid is definitely off.
When is recon getting there?

[Aric Dunn]

Man, I had zoom out on this.
Big jet of infeed from the SW where the high CAPE is.
Everything low-level on the west side is starting to turn into it.
Lid is definitely off.
When is recon getting there?

https://imgur.com/dSUFYfz

yeah it is well on its way.

recon is sometime in the next few hours.

will almost certainly find a TD possibly TS

[GCANE]

Icing on the cake.
A nice 1C warm core.

[Hurricaneman]

The forming circulation seems to be under the convection, won’t be too long maybe later today we may have a depression

[GCANE]

Man, I had zoom out on this.
Big jet of infeed from the SW where the high CAPE is.
Everything low-level on the west side is starting to turn into it.
Lid is definitely off.
When is recon getting there?

https://imgur.com/dSUFYfz

yeah it is well on its way.

recon is sometime in the next few hours.

will almost certainly find a TD possibly TS

Two main feeder bands to the south.
The southern-most one is firing deep convection.

[wxman57]

Classic
When is Recon going to arrive?

https://i.imgur.com/bF1sSNS.gif

Those winds to its north are higher than the buoys are reporting. More like 10-15 kt vs. 25 kts. Better to use actual obs than satellite-estimated winds. As the disturbance moves a bit farther west, it'll pass close to a buoy.

No recon flight yet. I really don't think it's needed today. It's less organized than 90L was last week. It'll be a TD tomorrow.

[Aric Dunn]

Classic
When is Recon going to arrive?

https://i.imgur.com/bF1sSNS.gif

Those winds to its north are higher than the buoys are reporting. More like 10-15 kt vs. 25 kts. Better to use actual obs than satellite-estimated winds. As the disturbance moves a bit farther west, it'll pass close to a buoy.

No recon flight yet. I really don't think it's needed today. It's less organized than 90L was last week. It'll be a TD tomorrow.

satellite estimates are 25kts. no surface obs are close enough to give us a direct sampling of the deep convection. surrounding buoys and stations are 15 to 20kts.

safe to assume withing the deep convection 25 to 30 kts is reasonable considering the winds observed overnight as it moved away from keys were 30 to 35 kts sustained for many hours. .

and yes recon is confirmed.

[jaguars_22]

Boys the NAM 3K is not looking good for Texas!!

[HurricaneEnzo]

Boys the NAM 3K is not looking good for Texas!!

Yeah the NAM isn't a good model to use for tropical systems its more geared towards mesoscale features. I mean yeah a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while but it usually WAY overdoes the intensity on tropical systems. AKA 'getting NAM'D'

[GCANE]

Classic
When is Recon going to arrive?

https://i.imgur.com/bF1sSNS.gif

Those winds to its north are higher than the buoys are reporting. More like 10-15 kt vs. 25 kts. Better to use actual obs than satellite-estimated winds. As the disturbance moves a bit farther west, it'll pass close to a buoy.

No recon flight yet. I really don't think it's needed today. It's less organized than 90L was last week. It'll be a TD tomorrow.

42003 is at 25.925 N 85.615 W
wll away from green portion of the wind field
Last report, more than 2 hours ago: 19 knots wind speed, gust to 25 knots
https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42003

Next buoy north is at 28.788N 86.008W
Well out of that green wind field.

There is really no buoy I can find that is close to that green wind field.

[jaguars_22]

Same thing was shown with harvey by the NAM and guess what rapid intensification took place. Who knows this is a tricky system!! I just want a lot of rain

[HurricaneEnzo]

Same thing was shown with harvey by the NAM and guess what rapid intensification took place. Who knows this is a tricky system!! I just want a lot of rain

Like I said a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while. It still way overcooked it. As far as models you wanna put faith in when it comes to the tropics it is at the bottom of the list. I'd trust crazy uncle CMC before this.

[sma10]

Man, I had zoom out on this.
Big jet of infeed from the SW where the high CAPE is.
Everything low-level on the west side is starting to turn into it.
Lid is definitely off.
When is recon getting there?

https://imgur.com/dSUFYfz

yeah it is well on its way.

recon is sometime in the next few hours.

will almost certainly find a TD possibly TS

If they find Hanna, it will be the fastest to 8 storms (by far), eclipsing 2005 record by 12 days

[cycloneye]

Man, I had zoom out on this.
Big jet of infeed from the SW where the high CAPE is.
Everything low-level on the west side is starting to turn into it.
Lid is definitely off.
When is recon getting there?

https://imgur.com/dSUFYfz

Waiting for the Wednesday TCPOD to see the status of recon for today.As soon it comes out it will be posted in the recon thread.

[DorkyMcDorkface]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1285960529811570688

[Aric Dunn]

Man, I had zoom out on this.
Big jet of infeed from the SW where the high CAPE is.
Everything low-level on the west side is starting to turn into it.
Lid is definitely off.
When is recon getting there?

https://imgur.com/dSUFYfz

Waiting for the Wednesday TCPOD to see the status of recon for today.As soon it comes out it will be posted in the recon thread.

https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/sta ... 0185375745

[Steve]

Boys the NAM 3K is not looking good for Texas!!

Yeah the NAM isn't a good model to use for tropical systems its more geared towards mesoscale features. I mean yeah a blind squirrel finds a nut once in a while but it usually WAY overdoes the intensity on tropical systems. AKA 'getting NAM'D'

Right. But the mesoscales have been dominating anticipated structure and location in recent, weak and smaller systems. Plus it was the only thing out when I posted it. 12z's ought to be rolling in now.

[HurricaneBrain]

Recon is *unofficially* confirmed for today. I would think we would be getting higher (at least more accurate) wind speeds reported with dropsondes than buoys that aren't stationed in the deep convection near the spinning center.
 https://twitter.com/JeremyDeHart53d/status/1285937810185375745

Classic
When is Recon going to arrive?

https://i.imgur.com/bF1sSNS.gif

Those winds to its north are higher than the buoys are reporting. More like 10-15 kt vs. 25 kts. Better to use actual obs than satellite-estimated winds. As the disturbance moves a bit farther west, it'll pass close to a buoy.

No recon flight yet. I really don't think it's needed today. It's less organized than 90L was last week. It'll be a TD tomorrow.

[MississippiWx]

Fairly impressed with how organized the low level structure is with 91L. Convective organization is obviously lacking, but this seems well on its way to becoming a tropical cyclone within the next day or so.

[vbhoutex]

From Jeff Lindner at Harris County Flood Control:

Tropical wave moving into the central Gulf of Mexico…chances for development remain at 40%

In the last 24 hours the tropical wave axis stretching from FL to Cuba has moved westward into the eastern and central Gulf of Mexico with little overall organization to this feature. Any weak and broad low level circulation west of Key West has been entangled with an upper level low over the Yucatan and this has resulted in generally unfavorable conditions for any development. This upper level low will continue to move WSW today and over the Bay of Campeche while the surface wave axis moves WNW into the central Gulf of Mexico leading to increasing separation of these two features. Upper level conditions will slowly improve over the central and especially the NW Gulf of Mexico as the wave axis reaches that region on Thursday.

Global forecast models continue to indicate that weak surface low pressure may form along this wave axis over the NW Gulf of Mexico on Thursday or Friday and move slowly inland along the middle and upper TX coast Friday night into Saturday. Models are a bit slower with the overall system motion than before. Any development is still expected to be weak…tropical depression or weak tropical storm.

Impacts:

Increasing showers and thunderstorms can be expected on Friday (likely after midday) as 91L nears the TX coast. Expect a large mass of deep tropical moisture to begin spreading into the upper TX coast Friday afternoon and continue through much of the weekend. The threat for heavy rainfall will be increasing over time…especially Friday night into Saturday with much of SE TX in a favored SE fetch off the Gulf and the wave axis/surface low just to our SW. A look at early rainfall amounts suggest 1-3 inches over the southern ½ of the area with isolated higher totals, but these may go up some depending on how the wave develops as it nears the coast. Coastal winds will begin to increase Thursday night and Friday and back to the NE with the approach of 91L from the ESE/SE. Expected 20-30kts over the coastal waters on Friday and 15-25mph along the coast and inland bays Friday and Friday night. Seas will build 3-5 feet Thursday night and 4-6 feet on Friday. ENE/NE surface winds and building swells support coastal water level run-up of a few feet along the Gulf facing beaches and 1-2 feet in Galveston Bay. Could have some minor coastal flooding issues at times of high tide Friday and Saturday on the Gulf facing beaches.

There remains uncertainty in how organized 91L may become near the TX coast on Friday and this may result in changes to the current forecast.