https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1301357157397532673
WPAC: HAISHEN - Post-Tropical
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1900hurricane
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Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Yeah, it'll probably wrap up pretty quickly here before it hits its most significant stretch of strengthening. The 18Z RIPA 24 hour RI probabilities were very salty.
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1301357157397532673
https://twitter.com/1900hurricane/status/1301357157397532673
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Contract Meteorologist. TAMU & MSST. Fiercely authentic, one of a kind. We are all given free will, so choose a life meant to be lived. We are the Masters of our own Stories.
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Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Opinions expressed are mine alone.
Follow me on Twitter at @1900hurricane : Read blogs at https://1900hurricane.wordpress.com/
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Looks like the ERC is finishing up. Should bomb out tomorrow.
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Bombs to 917 in 36 hours
42
42
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Latest Euro run switched back to Japan landfall
UK more east too.
Rest...
UK more east too.
Rest...
Last edited by Hayabusa on Thu Sep 03, 2020 4:02 am, edited 1 time in total.
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
TPPN10 PGTW 030626
A. TYPHOON 11W (HAISEN)
B. 03/0600Z
C. 20.61N
D. 137.76E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. SUBTRACTED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, AND
ADDED 0.5 FOR BF, TO YIELD A DT OF 5.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
YOUNG
A. TYPHOON 11W (HAISEN)
B. 03/0600Z
C. 20.61N
D. 137.76E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T5.5/5.5/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR/VIS/MSI
H. REMARKS: 11A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. B EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. SUBTRACTED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, AND
ADDED 0.5 FOR BF, TO YIELD A DT OF 5.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO
DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS: NONE
YOUNG
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Ramping up
TPPN10 PGTW 030928
A. TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN)
B. 03/0850Z
C. 20.81N
D. 137.12E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.0. MET YIELDED 5.5 WHILE PT YIELDED 6.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/0411Z 20.37N 138.00E MMHS
03/0634Z 20.88N 137.80E SSMI
YOUNG
TPPN10 PGTW 030928
A. TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN)
B. 03/0850Z
C. 20.81N
D. 137.12E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T6.0/6.0/D2.0/24HRS STT: D0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY B
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.5. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A
DT OF 6.0. MET YIELDED 5.5 WHILE PT YIELDED 6.0. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/0411Z 20.37N 138.00E MMHS
03/0634Z 20.88N 137.80E SSMI
YOUNG
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
The EWRC should end soon. Microwave imagery shows only the new eyewall remains. However, IR imagery still clearly shows the inner eyewall, so I don’t know what’s happening.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
This is going to take a while. That original pinhole eye does not want to go.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Personal Dvorak fix would be T5.5/5.5 at 12Z.
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Personal Forecast Disclaimer:
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
The pinhole eye is getting better defined on IR imagery...it’s like an inverse EWRC.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
TPPN10 PGTW 031223
A. TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN)
B. 03/1200Z
C. 20.96N
D. 136.56E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A
DT OF 5.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/0634Z 20.88N 137.80E SSMI
03/0702Z 20.78N 137.40E SSMS
03/0928Z 20.92N 137.08E SSMS
YOUNG
A. TYPHOON 11W (HAISHEN)
B. 03/1200Z
C. 20.96N
D. 136.56E
E. THREE/HMWRI8
F. T5.5/5.5/D1.5/24HRS STT: W0.5/03HRS
G. IR/EIR
H. REMARKS: 09A/PBO RAGGED EYE/ANMTN. OW EYE SURROUNDED BY LG
YIELDS AN E# OF 5.0. ADDED 0.5 EYE ADJUSTMENT FOR B, TO YIELD A
DT OF 5.5. MET AND PT AGREE. DBO DT.
I. ADDITIONAL POSITIONS:
03/0634Z 20.88N 137.80E SSMI
03/0702Z 20.78N 137.40E SSMS
03/0928Z 20.92N 137.08E SSMS
YOUNG
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Now the inner eyewall is finally fully collapsing. Convection around it associated with the new outer eyewall is expanding and cooling significantly. That new eye should be clearing within 6-12 hours.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
11W HAISHEN 200903 1200 21.0N 136.5E WPAC 100 957
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Remember, all of my post aren't official. For official warnings and discussions, Please refer to your local NWS products...
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
NWS for the Western Pacific
https://www.weather.gov/gum/
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
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ヤンデレ女が寝取られるているのを見たい！！！
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
ECMWF ensemble NWPAC plots: https://ecmwfensnwpac.imgbb.com/
Multimodel NWPAC plots: https://multimodelnwpac.imgbb.com/
GFS Ensemble NWPAC plots (16 & 35 day forecast): https://gefsnwpac.imgbb.com/
Plots updated automatically
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Haishen reminds me a lot of Hagibis when it went through its EWRC after developing a pinhole eye. Once that new eye clears out, it should go nuclear.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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mrbagyo
- Category 5
- Posts: 3711
- Age: 32
- Joined: Thu Apr 12, 2012 9:18 am
- Location: 14.13N 120.98E
- Contact:
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Current satellite presentation reminds me of Super Typhoon Jangmi at peak - one huge CDO surrounded by moat in all quadrants then spiral bands.
Last edited by mrbagyo on Thu Sep 03, 2020 9:59 am, edited 1 time in total.
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The posts in this forum are NOT official forecast and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or storm2k.org. For official information, please refer to RSMC, NHC and NWS products.
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
The shear is extremely low, but the inner eyewall won't erode. Looked like it would last night...
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Very useful information on the Dvorak Technique --
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
https://severe.worldweather.wmo.int/TCF ... kBeven.pdf
Re: WPAC: HAISHEN - Typhoon
Highteeld wrote:The shear is extremely low, but the inner eyewall won't erode. Looked like it was last night...
https://i.imgur.com/sdVDGMD.png
It’s odd that the tiny remnants of the inner eyewall don’t want to go away, despite the massive outer eyewall choking it out.
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Irene '11 Sandy '12 Hermine '16 5/15/2018 Derecho Fay '20 Isaias '20 Elsa '21 Henri '21 Ida '21
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
I am only a meteorology enthusiast who knows a decent amount about tropical cyclones. Look to the professional mets, the NHC, or your local weather office for the best information.
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