1. Showers and thunderstorms have increased this evening in association
with a broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea.
However, satellite-derived winds indicated earlier today that there
is no closed circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in Jamaica,
northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan
peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
with a broad area of low pressure over the central Caribbean Sea.
However, satellite-derived winds indicated earlier today that there
is no closed circulation. Environmental conditions are expected to
gradually become more conducive for development, and a tropical
depression is likely to form during the next couple of days while
the system moves westward at 15 to 20 mph. Interests in Jamaica,
northern Nicaragua, Honduras, Belize, Guatemala and the Yucatan
peninsula should monitor the progress of this disturbance.
* Formation chance through 48 hours...high...70 percent.
* Formation chance through 5 days...high...80 percent.
Of course some of these westward moving tropical waves have a hard time closing off an LLC so some of them do look impressive but aint quite tropical cyclones. Examples; Claudette, Fay...This system honestly reminds me a little of earl 2016, Ernesto 2012, karl 2010, etc. Some of the hurricane models do suggest a favorable environment so it wouldn't surprise me.
