ATL: ALPHA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Hypercane_Kyle]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1306998290811154438

Apparently JB isn't an Alpha fan.....

I've learned by now to ignore pretty much anything Bastardi says about tropical cyclones. He puts his politics first when it comes to TC forecasting.

To add, none of the reasons he's listed are reasons that have ever been considered, now or in the past, to not name a tropical cyclone. He knows this, he just doesn't care.

[TheStormExpert]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1306998290811154438

Apparently JB isn't an Alpha fan.....

I've learned by now to ignore pretty much anything Bastardi says about tropical cyclones. He puts his politics first when it comes to TC forecasting.

To add, none of the reasons he's listed are reasons that have ever been considered, now or in the past, to not name a tropical cyclone. He knows this, he just doesn't care.

It’s a Subtropical Cyclone for crying out loud! Joe B. literally makes NO SENSE anymore!

[Beef Stew]

I don't check for an hour and they actually pull the trigger on 99L! I was expecting this to be classified, albeit not until post season. Good on the NHC; they're going to have enough to deal with in this year's postseason analysis as is. Alpha is/will be the first STS/TS to make landfall in Portugal in the satellite era, correct?

[CrazyC83]

I don't check for an hour and they actually pull the trigger on 99L! I was expecting this to be classified, albeit not until post season. Good on the NHC; they're going to have enough to deal with in this year's postseason analysis as is. Alpha is/will be the first STS/TS to make landfall in Portugal in the satellite era, correct?

That is correct.

[TheAustinMan]

The lack of warm oceanic heat content suggest that Alpha isn't your a conventional tropical cyclone, and indeed, the NHC has it "subtropical" at this time for a reason. But regardless, it's definitely not just "any old cloud", and definitely deserves the name. Convection is organized with spiral banding around a tight core, and has persisted since yesterday. Hopefully the following radar image dispels any doubts.

663 KB. Source: IPMA


Compare with Vince weakening on approach to the Iberian peninsula in 2005.

451 KB. Source: Hurricane Vince's Tropical Cyclone Report

[HurricaneEnzo]

You can tell what circles JB runs in when the comments are full of people circlejerking about NHC's climate change "agenda"

His Twitter posts are just as bad looking at them. I think a new rule should be we don't quote him on here anymore. (Not a shot at you Enzo, just for future reference)

None taken. I posted it strictly for entertainment purposes. Figured everyone would get a kick out of it. I'm good with a rule banning any of his tweets being shared This clearly meets the sub-tropical criteria and was classified as such. Right call NHC!

[supercane4867]

Wow. This must be the latest last minute trigger that NHC ever decided to pull.

[tomatkins]

The lack of warm oceanic heat content suggest that Alpha isn't your a conventional tropical cyclone, and indeed, the NHC has it "subtropical" at this time for a reason. But regardless, it's definitely not just "any old cloud", and definitely deserves the name. Convection is organized with spiral banding around a tight core, and has persisted since yesterday. Hopefully the following radar image dispels any doubts.

663 KB. Source: IPMA
https://i.imgur.com/qSIsMvv.png

Compare with Vince weakening on approach to the Iberian peninsula in 2005.

451 KB. Source: Hurricane Vince's Tropical Cyclone Report
https://i.imgur.com/nhjMur2.png

I think once it got close enough to see that radar, they really had no choice.

[gfsperpendicular]

I assume that 9.3W is the farthest east genesis, but is it also the farthest east that any TS/STS has ever been? Or was Vince's last point farther east?

[supercane4867]

I assume that 9.3W is the farthest east genesis, but is it also the farthest east that any TS/STS has ever been? Or was Vince's last point farther east?

Vince weakened to a TD at landfall.

[gfsperpendicular]

I assume that 9.3W is the farthest east genesis, but is it also the farthest east that any TS/STS has ever been? Or was Vince's last point farther east?

Vince weakened to a TD at landfall.

Oh my bad, I meant TC/STC.

[arkestra]

I suppose advisories from the NHC are always in local time?

[CrazyC83]

I suppose advisories from the NHC are always in local time?

That's new this year. That is because the times were not representative - it's early evening in Portugal, but otherwise would show midday AST.

[hurricaneCW]

https://twitter.com/BigJoeBastardi/status/1306998290811154438

Apparently JB isn't an Alpha fan.....

I've learned by now to ignore pretty much anything Bastardi says about tropical cyclones. He puts his politics first when it comes to TC forecasting.

I don't know whether to laugh or cry at the responses to that tweet.

But hey guys apparently the NHC is naming every cloud a storm to push the man-made climate change narrative. They must have hired a team of arsonists to start the western US fires too.

Good lord help us.

[TallyTracker]

If Alpha isn’t a STS/TS, then neither was Pablo, Vince, Grace and countless other high-latitude cyclones that have been classified for many years. This meets the definition of an STS and needed to be classified. Good call NHC!

[CrazyC83]

If Alpha isn’t a STS/TS, then neither was Pablo, Vince, Grace and countless other high-latitude cyclones that have been classified for many years. This meets the definition of an STS and needed to be classified. Good call NHC!

The only thing post-analysis will do is most likely back up the genesis time, I'm guessing it became an STS (or TS) around 1200Z yesterday.

[MetroMike]

This system has to be on the very edge or even out of NHC jurisdiction, don't recall something near Portugal being classified.

[gfsperpendicular]

This system has to be on the very edge or even out of NHC jurisdiction, don't recall something near Portugal being classified.

Yeah I think it's right there on the edge.

The area of responsibility of RSMC Miami for issuing tropical and subtropical cyclone
advisories is the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, North Pacific Ocean
eastward from 140ºW.

https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/ ... _final.pdf

[CrazyC83]

This system has to be on the very edge or even out of NHC jurisdiction, don't recall something near Portugal being classified.

Yeah I think it's right there on the edge.

The area of responsibility of RSMC Miami for issuing tropical and subtropical cyclone
advisories is the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, North Pacific Ocean
eastward from 140ºW.

https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/ ... _final.pdf

I wonder what would happen if a tropical cyclone crossed the Strait of Gibraltar into the Mediterranean? Would the NHC maintain control?

[bob rulz]

This system has to be on the very edge or even out of NHC jurisdiction, don't recall something near Portugal being classified.

Yeah I think it's right there on the edge.

The area of responsibility of RSMC Miami for issuing tropical and subtropical cyclone
advisories is the North Atlantic Ocean, the Caribbean Sea, Gulf of Mexico, North Pacific Ocean
eastward from 140ºW.

https://www.wmo.int/pages/prog/www/tcp/ ... _final.pdf

I wonder what would happen if a tropical cyclone crossed the Strait of Gibraltar into the Mediterranean? Would the NHC maintain control?

Whoa now, 2020 doesn't need any more ideas!