ATL: BETA - Remnants - Discussion

[HurricaneAndre2008]

TXNT24 KNES 171208
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90L)

B. 17/1131Z

C. 22.2N

D. 95.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 W BANDING WAS OBSERVED AROUND THE LLCC WHICH MAKES
THE DT EQUAL TO 2.0. THE MET AND PT AGREE AND ARE ALSO EQUAL TO 2.0
BASED ON DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE FIRST INITIAL 24 HOURS. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT LLCC POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

[Emmett_Brown]

Giving me Opal vibes. Shear will be light for the next several days per 06Z GFS. Western GOM is very warm, large area of 30C ssts. Our next named storm likely IMO.

[HurricaneAndre2008]

TCFA issued for 90L

[hipshot]

TXNT24 KNES 171208
TCSNTL

A. TROPICAL DISTURBANCE (90L)

B. 17/1131Z

C. 22.2N

D. 95.5W

E. THREE/GOES-E

F. T2.0/2.0

G. IR/EIR/SWIR

H. REMARKS...3/10 W BANDING WAS OBSERVED AROUND THE LLCC WHICH MAKES
THE DT EQUAL TO 2.0. THE MET AND PT AGREE AND ARE ALSO EQUAL TO 2.0
BASED ON DEVELOPMENT TREND OVER THE FIRST INITIAL 24 HOURS. THE FT IS
BASED ON THE MET DUE TO UNCERTAINTY WITH THE EXACT LLCC POSITION.

I. ADDL POSITIONS

NIL


...SAMBUCCI

I wonder why 90L isn't on the map at the top of the message boards.

[jaxfladude]

Gulf chill you have done enough and 2020ing is not cool...poof chances or minimal impacts for this system?

[xironman]

42055 finally realizes 90l is there, unless it is just a passing storm. I think they will find a ts https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42055

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 200 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.7 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.9 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 80.1 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 91.8 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 23.3 kts

[Frank2]

Hurricane Henri (1979) spent most of it's life cycle in the SW GOM before dissipating, so never say never:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1979_Atla ... _track.png

[tailgater]

42055 finally realizes 90l is there, unless it is just a passing storm. I think they will find a ts https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42055

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 200 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.7 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.9 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 80.1 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 91.8 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 23.3 kts

Yeah I’m not trusting that buoy. Pressure is probably right though.

[GCANE]

Been firing all night and this morning in 3500 to 4000 CAPE

[GCANE]

Strong convection north of the CoC and closing in.

[Aric Dunn]

Given the set up.. if this deepens and lags behind a little while.. as the trough flattens out we could see this move ENE across the entire gulf into the big bend/NE gulf.

And no SSts wont be an issue. it owuld be moving at a decent clip and SSTs are still above 80degree.

[zhukm29]

I wonder why 90L isn't on the map at the top of the message boards.

There's a bug where the map only recognizes invests numbered from 91-99. As a result, 90L never shows up (I hope that can get fixed eventually).

[AnnularCane]

Guess it really was waiting for Sally to exit the Gulf.

[crimi481]

Is it splitting in 2?

[Aric Dunn]

This is almost certainly going to be Willy when recon gets there.

[MississippiWx]

Guess it really was waiting for Sally to exit the Gulf.

Sally’s circulation was large and causing westerly flow over the Central Gulf. This was killing convergence for this system. Now that she’s out of the way, convergence has increased and this has spun up quickly. I’d bet on a hurricane from this one. Track will be impossible to know for a few days I’m guessing. May help if we have a defined storm for models to sample.

[tailgater]

42055 finally realizes 90l is there, unless it is just a passing storm. I think they will find a ts https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=42055

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): SSW ( 200 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 21.4 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 27.2 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.79 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 81.7 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.9 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 80.1 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 91.8 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 23.3 kts

Yeah I’m not trusting that buoy. Pressure is probably right though.

Lol, might need to check the battery or wiring in this thing. It’s all over the place.
Conditions at 42055 as of
(8:30 am CDT)
1330 GMT on 09/17/2020:
Unit of Measure: Time Zone:
Click on the graph icon in the table below to see a time series plot of the last five days of that observation.

5-day plot - Wind Direction Wind Direction (WDIR): W ( 270 deg true )
5-day plot - Wind Speed Wind Speed (WSPD): 23.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Gust Wind Gust (GST): 38.9 kts
5-day plot - Atmospheric Pressure Atmospheric Pressure (PRES): 29.82 in
5-day plot - Air Temperature Air Temperature (ATMP): 78.8 °F
5-day plot - Water Temperature Water Temperature (WTMP): 86.5 °F
5-day plot - Dew Point Dew Point (DEWP): 78.8 °F
5-day plot - Heat Index Heat Index (HEAT): 83.1 °F
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 10 meters (WSPD10M): 25.3 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed at 10 Meters Wind Speed at 20 meters (WSPD20M): 27.2 kts
5-day plot - Wind Speed, Wind Gust and Atmospheric Pressure Combined plot of Wind Speed, Gust, and Air Pressure

[marionstorm]

Nice. Bouy confirms it is the real deal with that west wind. Maybe bouys upgrades before plane

[northjaxpro]

90L/Wilfred will likely be meandering in the Western GOM for several days to come as it will be pinned down and blocked by a strong 1037 mb HP building down the U.S. Eastern Seaboard into early next week.

[tailgater]

Nice. Bouy confirms it is the real deal with that west wind. Maybe bouys upgrades before plane

Don’t trust that buoy it’s been crazy the last 24 hrs.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=42055