ATL: DELTA - Models

[northjaxpro]

Just don't need this, just buried my father here today in Niceville, FL.

Sorry to hear that Dean

Dean sorry for your loss I also lost my dad back in August.

Dean I also want to express my prayers and condolences to you and your family with the loss of your father.

[SoupBone]

The HWRF with a massive shift west into Terrebonne Parish.

[GCANE]

Not to scare anybody but the setup on Thursday looks very alarming.
It is likely Delta will rapidly intensify then.
Will be in the middle of an Anticyclone Rossby Wave Break with a massive feed of very high CAPE air.
Rossby Wave looks relatively weak and far enough away to enhance outflow.
An UL Low over Haiti could drive a poleward outflow channel.
Troposphere is forecasted to be entirely saturated.

[Frank P]

thru h51 HWRF 06z is east and weaker than 0z run. 994 vs 976 mb

[GCANE]

For what its worth, Navgem and UKmet doesn't take it past Cuba.
GFS appears to be the most aggressive for the Globals.

[tolakram]

Looks more realistic than blowing it up like the previous run. Hopefully this is the correct solution but a much stronger storm is still very possible IMO

[Frank P]

thru h75 HMON 06z is weaker and west of 0z run.... 980 vs 970 mb

[kevin]

Both HWRF and HMON are significantly weaker this 06z run than in many of their previous runs, where they both consistently showed quite a bit of intensification. Anyone know what changed this run that causes this slightly weaker outcome? Is it a 1 run fluke or a trend we can expect to continue?

[tolakram]

Both HWRF and HMON are significantly weaker this 06z run than in many of their previous runs, where they both consistently showed quite a bit of intensification. Anyone know what changed this run that causes this slightly weaker outcome? Is it a 1 run fluke or a trend we can expect to continue?

It's just one run so far, very hard to tell anything in my opinion. If the next run also has this trend then it might be onto something.

[stormlover2013]

Told y’all Saturday we won’t know till wed, models have sucked all year

[supercane4867]

06z GFS has an intensifying hurricane crossing the Yucatan Channel

[toad strangler]

6z GFS does show a weakening trend prior to landfall which is really tough for the models to sort out as we know.

[tolakram]

HWRF 6Z

[NDG]

06z Euro, stronger than previous run, similar in track, just a tad more west and a little slower.

[SoupBone]

Why do the models keep coming more and more west, and what's the potential limit for that western movement?

[NDG]

Why do the models keep coming more and more west, and what's the potential limit for that western movement?

Yes, I think so too.

[NDG]

12z early models, TVCN shifted slightly westward.

[p1nheadlarry]

Let’s put it this way, I’m not closing my eyes on this one in Tallahassee. If the models are only slightly off on the timing of the turn, this could send a hurricane barreling further east than expected.

Two years to the day of M potentially. I don't think many folks there realize how close of a call that was. If it never took those two north jogs (one pre and one post landfall), TLH is looking like Marianna as it made the NE bend slightly ahead of schedule.

[stormlover2013]

Because models have been bad are year and it's monday, they haven't been good till about 2 days out also high pressure, it's always about how strong the ridge is.

[stormlover2013]

also GFS para is more west also.