ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

It’s running out of time, that’s for sure.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Recon is in route!

yeah quick flight.. lets hope this is a center pass mission and not some weird survey mission.

based on yesterday afternoon, they can just monitor this board and use it for for instructions on where to look for a center

At the moment it looks like they are in the area members here have pointed out, so maybe they do

[Aric Dunn]

Exactly where it is showing up on radar and satellite..

recon needs to turn west.

[SFLcane]

Exactly where it is showing up on radar and satellite..

recon needs to turn west.

https://i.ibb.co/tsH5WqD/Capture.png

There it is... we shall see.

[Blown Away]

Exactly where it is showing up on radar and satellite..

recon needs to turn west.

https://i.ibb.co/tsH5WqD/Capture.png

There it is... we shall see.

15.8/62.5 sticking to it.

[Weatherboy1]

I would be shocked if they can't close off an LLC on #9, given the satellite presentation and the persistence of strong convection for many, many hours now. Also APPEARS to be slowing down a bit from its breakneck pace of the past few days … though that is an educated guess, not something "confirmed" due to lack of a concrete center. As for the ultimate path and strength of this system, obviously so much is dependent on whether it plows into Hispanola and its highest peaks or not. Will just have to keep watching carefully here in Palm Beach County at this time

[3090]

IR returns have fooled many people over the years, follow recon and visible until we have a 'core" for movement

Exactly my point, reiterated!

Well, if you rely on the NHC, then you would have seen their forecast discussion that states it's moving WNW at 295/20. So apparently they see a north component as well...

There has been no hurricane hunter data as far as I know, since yesterday afternoon. That said, in conjunction with data received from the hurricane hunters and the NHC using that data to issue advisories, is what I rely on. Not IR satellite imagery. Yes; a WNW motion as issued by the NHC is the info I follow. But I still don’t see how anyone can look at an IR image and make such an observation, which is my point. We shall see what today brings.

[HurricaneEnzo]

I would be shocked if they can't close off an LLC on #9, given the satellite presentation and the persistence of strong convection for many, many hours now. Also APPEARS to be slowing down a bit from its breakneck pace of the past few days … though that is an educated guess, not something "confirmed" due to lack of a concrete center. As for the ultimate path and strength of this system, obviously so much is dependent on whether it plows into Hispanola and its highest peaks or not. Will just have to keep watching carefully here in Palm Beach County at this time

If it is in fact slowing down could be foreshadowing the anticipated northerly turn.

[jlauderdal]

yeah quick flight.. lets hope this is a center pass mission and not some weird survey mission.

based on yesterday afternoon, they can just monitor this board and use it for for instructions on where to look for a center

At the moment it looks like they are in the area members here have pointed out, so maybe they do

Its a good bet they look at this board

hopefully it doesnt bias them too much....there is some wacky stuff that comes through here

[Aric Dunn]

based on yesterday afternoon, they can just monitor this board and use it for for instructions on where to look for a center

At the moment it looks like they are in the area members here have pointed out, so maybe they do

Its a good bet they look at this board

hopefully it doesnt bias them too much....there is some wacky stuff that comes through here

Well they definitely see the center now.. lol

clear as day...

so far just flying around it..

[jlauderdal]

Exactly my point, reiterated!

Well, if you rely on the NHC, then you would have seen their forecast discussion that states it's moving WNW at 295/20. So apparently they see a north component as well...

There has been no hurricane hunter data as far as I know, since yesterday afternoon. That said, in conjunction with data received from the hurricane hunters and the NHC using that data to issue advisories, is what I rely on. Not IR satellite imagery. Yes; a WNW motion as issued by the NHC is the info I follow. But I still don’t see how anyone can look at an IR image and make such an observation, which is my point. We shall see what today brings.

its not even august and we are discussing the validity of IR images for motion without a true center...this is type of chat is at laeast two weeks ahead of schedule

[St0rmTh0r]

i would wager we have a well defined and deepening llc at this point.

I'd take that bet it's becoming more organized by the hour

[xironman]

Given how messy it is I would not be surprised they find multiple eddies.

[Frank P]

Side note: this most likely will be the most mispronounced TS/hurricane name ever... Or at least in the top 3!

[AutoPenalti]

So I guess I’m as lost as recon because I can’t seem to find the LLC

[Vdogg]

Exactly my point, reiterated!

Well, if you rely on the NHC, then you would have seen their forecast discussion that states it's moving WNW at 295/20. So apparently they see a north component as well...

There has been no hurricane hunter data as far as I know, since yesterday afternoon. That said, in conjunction with data received from the hurricane hunters and the NHC using that data to issue advisories, is what I rely on. Not IR satellite imagery. Yes; a WNW motion as issued by the NHC is the info I follow. But I still don’t see how anyone can look at an IR image and make such an observation, which is my point. We shall see what today brings.

We’ll have to agree to disagree. When I look at zoomed out IR, I can see the entirety of the “mass” is clearly gaining latitude as opposed to where it was in relation to S. America. Your mileage may vary.

[AdamFirst]

Side note: this most likely will be the most mispronounced TS/hurricane name ever... Or at least in the top 3!

I heard Bryan Norcross pronounce the name yesterday...it wasn't what I was expecting

[SouthDadeFish]

Still looks like a sharp wave for now. There is not a well-defined center. That being said, the overall convective pattern of the system is better organized today than yesterday. I suspect we see TC genesis by this evening.

[Aric Dunn]

Recon checking out the NHC position first... before hopefully heading back to the elephant in the room lol

[SouthDadeFish]

Recon finding some SW winds now down near 14.8 N 63.3 W. There is confluent flow. Seems like only a matter of time before a LLC spins up now.