ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[Blown Away]

12z GFS through 96 hours... LLC seems to develop N of Hispaniola and turns E of SFL

[MississippiWx]

You can never be 100% sure in weather, but most (if not all) of the Gulf Coast should be closed for business with the trof over the Lower MS Valley. It could possibly sneak in just west of the FL coastline. If so, would probably be a weaker system according to models. Just my hunch.

Models will continue to flip flop depending on strength of system.

[Emmett_Brown]

Just going by memory, but when Dorian formed last year, I remember the GFS showing a lot of the energy being shunted to the NE, similar to how it is handling PT9. Dorian ended up grazing PR to the NE and going to the right of the official forecast track. So the idea that the energy in the eastern lobe of PT9 might pull the storm to the right might be plausible.

[HurricaneFrances04]

CMC seems to indicate that we might not get consolidation until after interaction with Hispaniola

[SFLcane]

12z CMC a little stronger up the spine of the FL peninsula. Also East of 00z run

[wxman57]

I plotted every model we get. Took out the statistical and climatology plots, along with the extrapolated plot, and this is what I get. They seem to all like Florida. Major battle coming up - PTC Nine vs. wind shear and dry air as it nears Florida.

[plasticup]

I plotted every model we get. Took out the statistical and climatology plots, along with the extrapolated plot, and this is what I get. They seem to all like Florida. Major battle coming up - PTC Nine vs. wind shear and dry air as it nears Florida.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models.JPG

But first: PTC9 vs the mountains of Hispaniola and Eastern Cuba

[Lance]

I plotted every model we get. Took out the statistical and climatology plots, along with the extrapolated plot, and this is what I get. They seem to all like Florida. Major battle coming up - PTC Nine vs. wind shear and dry air as it nears Florida.

http://wxman57.com/images/Models.JPG

PTC9 wants to go to Florida. Sorry, we're closed and I'm sure it won't abide by social distancing. Hopefully it will not be strong at all, just a little more rain and some wind.

[FixySLN]

I'm thinking a few hundred miles further west. Maybe between New Orleans and Panama City Beach. The tracks have been moving that way for a few days and that's a pretty drastic turn to get into Tampa. A few southern jogs and we're there. I dunno...this one has thrown too many curve balls to make sense of it. Thursday evening should be fruitful.

[SFLcane]

12 HWRF threads the needle at misses DR. Much stronger 985 through 42hrs..

[caneseddy]

CMC seems to indicate that we might not get consolidation until after interaction with Hispaniola

https://i.imgur.com/g9OQmea.gif

HWRF, HMON and HWRF-Para also show consolidation after interacting with Hispaniola

[DestinHurricane]

HWRF on crack. 985 at hour 54.

[wxman57]

HWRF on crack. 985 at hour 54.

Didn't do so well with Gonzalo which it predicted to move across the eastern Caribbean as nearly a Cat 3...

[SFLcane]

HWRF on crack. 985 at hour 54.

Guess HMON, HWRF Para, HWRF P, are all on crack... The all intensify PT9 into a hurricane in the Bahamas.

[BobHarlem]

HWRF on crack. 985 at hour 54.

Guess HMON, HWRF Para, HWRF P, are all on crack... The all intensify PT9 into a hurricane in the Bahamas.

The first 24 hours of those model runs are like throwing darts for a center.

[DestinHurricane]

HWRF on crack. 985 at hour 54.

Guess HMON, HWRF Para, HWRF P, are all on crack... The all intensify PT9 into a hurricane in the Bahamas.

Yes, they are all on crack. Should not be used as reliable scientific information. Not even sure why they continue to run the HWRF/HMON after years of them calling for every storm to become a major hurricane.

[Blown Away]

The right biased GFS/HWRF/HMON etc all shifting N & E to the E of Fl now, I sniff an NHC track shift E at 5pm...

[HurricaneFrances04]

GFS Ensemble mean now off Florida

[jlauderdal]

The right biased GFS/HWRF/HMON etc all shifting N & E to the E of Fl now, I sniff an NHC track shift E at 5pm...

Not unless the NHC increase intensity..they have been clear on their track reasoning

[HurricaneFrances04]

Euro is a bit....different lol