ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Cataegis96]

Interesting on IR.
Appears a lead rotating hot tower smacked head on to the eyewall and is now reforming the eye.

Definitely some strange structural changes going on all of a sudden. It seems like this may be the trigger for the pinhole eye to really break through. Must be absolutely nuts inside that core right now.

[MississippiWx]

The flat, convection-less eastern half of the circulation is a telling sign that there is some easterly shear affecting Delta. It obviously hasn’t kept it from strengthening but I’m wondering if that has put a temporary limit on strength. Recon will tell.

[cheezyWXguy]

How on earth do you get an overshooting top above -80 to -90C cloud tops?

[Steve]

Have to agree Steve strange setup looking at this sat of the GOM looks like Gamma is calling Delta come get me.

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/sat/sat ... =truecolor

Gamma is a 1000 mile wide cylinder of air rotating counter clockwise not just a blip.
200 mb layer got blown off by sheer and inflow will get pulled out from underneath fairly quickly as the two get closer but there is still remnant steering.
06z HWRF was showing Delta tracking about a half degree further west due to remnant environmental rotation.

Maybe we will learn something about the Fujiwara effect from remnant systems?

Being a total noob, just looking at that loop, logic is telling me that gamma would possibly spin Delta around itself arching her more east then arching west once Delta is north of Gamma?? Could that be what the European model is seeing too? and why its track is further west?

But also I truly have no idea of what Im talking about

It’s weird. We were talking about potential for interaction last week when we didn’t know if Delta or Gamma would become the dominant system. If you look at the link Javlin posted, you can see the feeders parallel with the TX Coast moving SSE toward the Mexican Coastline. I feel like the two systems are embedded in some kind of pocket (gyre) that itself is spinning counter clockwise. So a system to the north in that scenario would have to get pulled westward because the airmass overall is spinning cyclonically.

[Astromanía]

It's moving so fast, it would be worse if it moves very slow, right?

[ConvergenceZone]

Still impressive, but not looking quite as impressive as earlier...

[kevin]

Not sure what's happening here in the last 4 frames of the latest loop. Is it an eye trying to pop out?

[EquusStorm]

Suffice to say, I wouldn't want to be in a fishing boat under the RMW of this thing right now

[MississippiWx]

Not sure what's happening here in the last 4 frames of the latest loop. Is it an eye trying to pop out?

https://imgur.com/iQrAsNs

Overshooting top/hot tower circulating around the eye. Still no sign of the eye on visible.

[Texashawk]

Just saw the recon plan for tomorrow. I think the NHC is literally throwing every plane it has at this storm. Never seen such a full docket!

[supercane4867]

No signs of ERC yet on the fresh AMSR pass. Probably just the mid-shear that's holding it off.

[GCANE]

What an outlier

[kevin]

What an outlier

https://i.imgur.com/bH76Jbb.png

Wow, that outlier is like a Patricia level monster. Just one model of course and way stronger than the others, but I don't think I've ever seen something like that in an intensity guidance. At least not for the Atlantic.

[Fancy1001]

Whats the COTI model?

[MississippiWx]

What an outlier

https://i.imgur.com/bH76Jbb.png

Lol. Wow.

I have never seen that for an Atlantic storm.

[kevin]

Whats the COTI model?

I think it's the same or similar to the CTCI model (someone correct me if I'm wrong), which NHC uses for track and intensity. But I can't imagine that intensity verifying, or at least I don't want to imagine it.

"CTCX/CTCI NRL COAMPS-TC w/ GFS initial and boundary conditions Nested Grid point (45-15-5 km) 42 Hybrid Sigma-pressure 3D-VAR (NAVDAS) EnKF DART Kain-Fritsch 6 hr (126 hr)
00/06/12/18 UTC
Runs commence on 1st NHC/JTWC advisory Track and intensity"

[GCANE]

Cold pool may be stacking under the warm core now.
Area around it seems to be warmer now.
So, enthalpy flux from the water to the air maybe leveling off.
Wind speed / eye pressure may not change much until the upper troposphere starts to cool off in a few hours.

[GCANE]

 https://twitter.com/FlynonymousWX/status/1313563666927759361

[Stormgodess]

Dr Steve Caparotta our local Meteorologist just shared this. If one of yall could find a better image please share this is screen grab from a vid. But this is a scary model, wind field much wider

[MississippiWx]

Dr Steve Caparotta our local Meteorologist just shared this. If one of yall could find a better image please share this is screen grab from a vid. But this is a scary model, wind field much wider

https://i.postimg.cc/4dQNJjDF/D4.png

One bit of information that seems to be going largely unnoticed is how much Delta grows in the Gulf of Mexico. I’m Afraid people are looking at its current small size and extrapolating that to US landfall when models are showing it grow rather large.