ATL: ISAIAS - Models

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gatorcane
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1221 Postby gatorcane » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:03 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Euro is a bit....different lol

https://i.imgur.com/EOA7z02.png


Definitely stronger and more north. This may be a recurve east of Florida through Bahamas this run let's see.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1222 Postby WeatherEmperor » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:04 pm

HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Euro is a bit....different lol

[url]https://i.imgur.com/EOA7url]


I am just patiently waiting for the Euro to shift east, missing FL all together and going up to the Carolinas. lol!!!
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1223 Postby sma10 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:06 pm

WeatherEmperor wrote:
HurricaneFrances04 wrote:Euro is a bit....different lol

https://i.imgur.com/EOA7


I am just patiently waiting for the Euro to shift east, missing FL all together and going up to the Carolinas. lol!!!


How many times have I had to tell y'all: in the end, they all head to Bermuda :cheesy:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1224 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:07 pm

Image

12z EURO... :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1225 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:08 pm

I guess the Euro read Forecaster Stewart's disco from last night :eek:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1226 Postby supercane4867 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:09 pm

Bertha 96 would be a good analog for a Carolina hit. That one got sheared to a hurricane with exposed center east of Florida but quickly intensified right before landfall.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1227 Postby caneseddy » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:11 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/lfjdU4q.gif

12z EURO... :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:


Are my eyes deceiving me or is that a thumb ridge just north of it?
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1228 Postby ColdMiser123 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:11 pm

About 30-40% of the 6z EPS showed a solution similar to what the 12z Euro has, there is a tremendous amount of uncertainty still both with track and intensity, especially since we still do not have a well defined center with this.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1229 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:15 pm

Image
12z EURO... 96 hours... Wow what a change of events... I think big changes coming at 5pm...
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1230 Postby caneseddy » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:16 pm

caneseddy wrote:
Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/lfjdU4q.gif

12z EURO... :eek: :eek: :eek: :eek:


Are my eyes deceiving me or is that a thumb ridge just north of it?


NVm. Ends up skirting east coast of Florida
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1231 Postby DestinHurricane » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:19 pm

Looks like the Euro shows something some other posters were alluding to earlier, however I may be wrong. I believe it shows Hispaniola helping nine tighten up and strengthen. You can see the south part of it goes over the shredder so the north part of the storm remains over water, tightens up, and strengthens.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1232 Postby SFLcane » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:20 pm

Oh boy!

Image
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1233 Postby caneseddy » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:20 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/ClVyjwc.gif
12z EURO... 96 hours... Wow what a change of events... I think big changes coming at 5pm...


I doubt the NHC will do any big changes yet. Maybe shift track a little bit East but not too much and maybe raise the peak intensity to 55-60 mph. They’ll want to be conservative in case this doesn’t survive the trek
Last edited by caneseddy on Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:22 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1234 Postby Blown Away » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:22 pm

Image
12z EURO... 120 hours... Skirts FL and looks like a recurve...
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1235 Postby HurricaneFrances04 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:22 pm

They'll have to shift east some. They're west of the CMC, GFS, GFS Ensemble mean, and Euro. Probably will be west of the Euro ensembles too.
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1236 Postby Airboy » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:22 pm

I think I have seen this kind of Euro track before.... :lol:
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1237 Postby hurrtracker79 » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:23 pm

 https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1288540067007528961


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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1238 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:24 pm

Blown Away wrote:https://i.imgur.com/ClVyjwc.gif
12z EURO... 96 hours... Wow what a change of events... I think big changes coming at 5pm...

Where have we’ve seen this before? Oh I know, Matthew!
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Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1239 Postby BobHarlem » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:25 pm

9 better start gaining latitude soon to make any of these models remotely correct.
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TheStormExpert

Re: ATL: NINE - Models

#1240 Postby TheStormExpert » Wed Jul 29, 2020 1:26 pm


Yep, Saved By the Trough!
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