ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

All the "But Dorian" posts here are going to look foolish in a few days when we have an open wave going through the Bahamas. Recon confirms there's no circulation and the favorable conditions down the road aren't going to matter if all you have is an open wave scraping the north end of the islands. This is not Dorian, which was never in this bad of shape and most of the posts refer to down the road conditions, not the current state of things. Dorian was always expected to weaken based on the models (most of which poorly initialized it due to it's small size, similarly with Danny in 2015), which never panned out--neither are the forecasts of this strengthening.

It can go both ways Hammy, you know better than that.

Meanwhile,

 https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1296567885998039046

[Hammy]

All the "But Dorian" posts here are going to look foolish in a few days when we have an open wave going through the Bahamas. Recon confirms there's no circulation and the favorable conditions down the road aren't going to matter if all you have is an open wave scraping the north end of the islands. This is not Dorian, which was never in this bad of shape and most of the posts refer to down the road conditions, not the current state of things. Dorian was always expected to weaken based on the models (most of which poorly initialized it due to it's small size, similarly with Danny in 2015), which never panned out--neither are the forecasts of this strengthening.

It can go both ways Hammy, you know better than that.

Meanwhile,

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status/1296567885998039046?s=21

My point is more that the less bullish talk shouldn't be automatically dismissed just because it was wrong once.

And it'll certainly be interesting to see what the models show when that's incorporated--will it probably not show up until the 6z runs?

[MarioProtVI]

All the "But Dorian" posts here are going to look foolish in a few days when we have an open wave going through the Bahamas. Recon confirms there's no circulation as all the winds are out of the southeast and the favorable conditions down the road aren't going to matter if all you have is an open wave scraping the north end of the islands, something that is a distinct possibility--NHC even points out their forecast is highly uncertain.

This is not Dorian, which was never in this bad of shape and most of the posts refer to down the road conditions, not the current state of things. Dorian was always expected to weaken based on the models (most of which poorly initialized it due to it's small size, similarly with Danny in 2015), which was what never happened.

I can easily point to Karen last year when people were insistent it would reorganize just like Dorian because of those favorable conditions, and that of course played out differently.

They only just entered the storm after meandering around to get to a lower attitude. We will see whether they find an LLC (which I think they will based on previous satellite images). Calling that this will be a wave within a few days solely based on a short-term observation is a bit bearish.

[Aric Dunn]

Well there are definitely TS winds not far from the center. center is to the NW of where the plane is on satellite.

could be multiple vorts of course as well.

[drewschmaltz]

Playing the "this person said that last year" game is a unnecessary, slippery slope. Destin, I could point out the numerous hyperbolic flip-flopping statements you said in the week leading up to Isaias passing by Florida, but that wouldn't really contribute anything to the current situation. I think that's a game better left unplayed. No one is perfect. 95% of us here are amateurs. It would help if everyone tones down the hyperbole, the model wars, and the "gotcha" mentality.

Ok, I get this but I think most will have to agree with me... Destin didn't really attempt to make a point other than using the posts as a baseline for perspective. For me, it served as a reminder of perspective. I in no way think less of any of the users quoted. However, threatening to post "hyperbolic flip-flopping" changes the tonality to accusational. I may be off-base. But, it was one of the more enlightening posts in this thread (for me anyway).

[Nuno]

All the "But Dorian" posts here are going to look foolish in a few days when we have an open wave going through the Bahamas. Recon confirms there's no circulation as all the winds are out of the southeast and the favorable conditions down the road aren't going to matter if all you have is an open wave scraping the north end of the islands, something that is a distinct possibility--NHC even points out their forecast is highly uncertain.

This is not Dorian, which was never in this bad of shape and most of the posts refer to down the road conditions, not the current state of things. Dorian was always expected to weaken based on the models (most of which poorly initialized it due to it's small size, similarly with Danny in 2015), which was what never happened.

I can easily point to Karen last year when people were insistent it would reorganize just like Dorian because of those favorable conditions, and that of course played out differently.

Maybe it does end up an open wave. But I think comments like "in a few days when we have an open wave" is what is frustrating people when the NHC shows a strengthening TS/borderline hurricane in a few days time.

We have many days ahead. We've all done this many times. Let's discuss possibilities and try to avoid absolutes. Amateurs and pros alike...

[ozonepete]

Slightly off topic, but i'd like to share some posts from last year's Dorian thread to remind people that this can easily strengthen.
There are some striking similarities. The GFS/Euro didn't like Dorian early on either, the HWRF/HMON did.
Not saying this is going to be a cat 5. All I am saying is think big picture before you call this off.

No offense meant to these posters at all.
Here are some posts from the Dorian threads:

I removed the posts for brevity since everyone can see them in prior posts.

Lol, great post.

LMAO at people still believing GFS!

And the rest of us are LMAO at people still blindly believing the EURO.

Model loyalty or aversion is forecasting suicide.

[ColdMiser123]

Well there are definitely TS winds not far from the center. center is to the NW of where the plane is on satellite.

could be multiple vorts of course as well.

This is what I'm most interested in seeing from recon. The HWRF/HMON strongly hinted at this over the next 24-30 hours or so, that there could be multiple competing areas of spin.

[AveryTheComrade]

All the "But Dorian" posts here are going to look foolish in a few days when we have an open wave going through the Bahamas. Recon confirms there's no circulation as all the winds are out of the southeast and the favorable conditions down the road aren't going to matter if all you have is an open wave scraping the north end of the islands, something that is a distinct possibility--NHC even points out their forecast is highly uncertain.

This is not Dorian, which was never in this bad of shape and most of the posts refer to down the road conditions, not the current state of things. Dorian was always expected to weaken based on the models (most of which poorly initialized it due to it's small size, similarly with Danny in 2015), which was what never happened.

I can easily point to Karen last year when people were insistent it would reorganize just like Dorian because of those favorable conditions, and that of course played out differently.

This statement is absolutely ridiculous to make right now. You should know better than to say that every system that doesn't look perfect on formation can't improve significantly. The system is holding together very well, it's currently in the worst conditions it will be in for some time. Recon isn't even in the center right now, you can't say it doesn't have a circulation.

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Donut filled back in.
Good example how volatile PVS's are.
Top of the troposphere cooling off now.
Keep an eye out for some big towers that might fire.


https://imgur.com/DqsMxYl

I believe this is the wrong thread, though that's a good informative post

[SouthFLTropics]

Donut filled back in.
Good example how volatile PVS's are.
Top of the troposphere cooling off now.
Keep an eye out for some big towers that might fire.


https://imgur.com/DqsMxYl

Um, wrong Depression... LOL

[Blown Away]

"GFS/Euro basically do nothing with TD13, hard to go against those models..."

[Blinhart]

Donut filled back in.
Good example how volatile PVS's are.
Top of the troposphere cooling off now.
Keep an eye out for some big towers that might fire.


https://imgur.com/DqsMxYl

Wrong thread, that pic is of 14.

[GCANE]

Donut filled back in.
Good example how volatile PVS's are.
Top of the troposphere cooling off now.
Keep an eye out for some big towers that might fire.


https://imgur.com/DqsMxYl

Um, wrong Depression... LOL

Thanks

[SouthFLTropics]

Donut filled back in.
Good example how volatile PVS's are.
Top of the troposphere cooling off now.
Keep an eye out for some big towers that might fire.


https://imgur.com/DqsMxYl

Um, wrong Depression... LOL

Thanks

No worries...Easy mistake to make with multiple windows and multiple storms going on.

[TheStormExpert]

All I know is this depression is depressing me!

[psyclone]

Slightly off topic, but i'd like to share some posts from last year's Dorian thread to remind people that this can easily strengthen.
There are some striking similarities. The GFS/Euro didn't like Dorian early on either, the HWRF/HMON did.
Not saying this is going to be a cat 5. All I am saying is think big picture before you call this off.

No offense meant to these posters at all.
Here are some posts from the Dorian threads:

"Dry sinking airmass will probably prevent this system from developing the euro just poofs it as it nears the islands."
- SFLcane, August 23, 2019.

"The euro happens to have completely screwed this one up so far. Not sure we should be trusting it for this particular system."
- NikhilTri, August 23, 2019.

"Good news this morning if this even develops it will more then likely be decapitated as it nears the islands. Conditions just are not favorable overall"
- SFLcane, August 24, 2019.

"I do have some doubts about that NHC forecast verifying. I don't think the intensity models are really taking into account its size and how much dry air/wind shear TD5 will be facing."
- Hurricane_Kyle, August 24, 2019.

"I would forecast it to be dissipating in the NE Caribbean, not a hurricane. Using HWRF for intensity guidance????"
- wxman57, August 24, 2019.

"I'm betting the NHC thinks the global models have a poor handle on the system, which makes sense considering the ECMWF hardly even showed a vortex, let alone a TC, until like yesterday for Dorian."
- Hurricane_Kyle, August 24, 2019.

"I do wonder if the GFS is too struggling now with the size of Dorian. If conditions are favorable until the islands then why doesn’t it strengthen it much?"
- TheStormExpert, August 24, 2019.

"GFS/Euro basically do nothing with Dorian, hard to go against those models..."
-Blown Away, August 25, 2019.

These are kind of funny but they're made with the benefit of hindsight. everyone is going to be inaccurate. In fairness, Dorian's survival was very much in doubt in the east caribbean. The NHC forecasts kind of split the difference with a rather modest intensity in the early outlooks (sound familiar?). For every case such as this we can find many more where the hype squad pushed a dud that failed to blossom. Will they be held to the same standards? I doubt it. I'm surprised i didn't get scorched on this list....as i distinctly recall tilting toward dissipation in the carib...although i expected a big hurricane if it survived to the Bahamas. It's really astonishingly similar to what is going on now. Speaking more broadly Dorian and 13 remind us how often the tropics are almost a coin toss in some cases. I'd suggest the coin is in the air again and the official forecast kind of splits the difference. Acknowledgement of low confidence is a bit of nod to this phenomenon. The NHC gang sure has my respect.

[shiny-pebble]

Just a reminder that there is an option to hide certain users post from showing for you... May be helpful for some here...

Back to TD 13, it is not looking too hot. Not the most organized system. But every model has been forecasting this, it just differs once it gets north of the islands. I would not be surprised if still have a TD for another day or so. Thankful I'm not the ones making the decisions right now!

The posts in this forum are NOT official forecasts and should not be used as such. They are just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. They are NOT endorsed by any professional institution or STORM2K. For official information, please refer to products from the NHC and NWS.

[toad strangler]

"GFS/Euro basically do nothing with TD13, hard to go against those models..."

I agree that it's tough to go against BOTH. THis would be an amazing fail for both the GFS and EURO if 13 developed into even a strong TS before the FL Straits. But, I'm hedging that a fail won't be the case ATM.

[Nimbus]

Donut filled back in.
Good example how volatile PVS's are.
Top of the troposphere cooling off now.
Keep an eye out for some big towers that might fire.


https://imgur.com/DqsMxYl

Wrong thread, that pic is of 14.

18z GFS didn't do much with 13 brings it in near Destin, FL 14 is headed for the bowl this run though.