ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[MississippiWx]

Looks like the recent convective burst wasn't enough yet. Center starting to become more exposed as it leaves the convection behind.

Yeah, seems like shear doesn't want to let up. Not sure this westerly shear was expected yesterday. Still time for it to change, but chances of a significant hurricane seem to be dwindling. Threat remains the flooding and storm surge.

[Kazmit]

Will we get another "half-cane" like Barry?

[caneman]

Yep. In the 10-15 inch location area here at the house. Have not had any rain here this month so that may help a lil bit, not much, but a little.

10-15 inches not out of the realm of possibilities. Key West Airport has recorded 9.71 inches so far from Sally....and its still raining.

and we here in hernando have nothing

Been getting some good rain and some wind in Clearwater

[Chemmers]

Some overshooting top near the coc maybe the shear is weakening?

[TheStormExpert]

Will we get another "half-cane" like Barry?

https://img.techpowerup.org/200913/1000x1000.jpg

https://www.worldvision.org/wp-content/uploads/2019/07/NOAA_swirl_Fri.jpg

God I hope not!!

We can do better at peak season!

[gatorcane]

Shear continues to keep her from intensifying quickly. Sally may not be a big wind event when all is said and done but could be remembered as a big rain event, saved loop showing the shear as the storm is asymmetric with most activity east of the center:

[aspen]

Sally really needs to get under that anticyclone if she wants to take advantage of the bathhouse-warm Gulf waters.

[pcolaman]

Sally really needs to get under that anticyclone if she wants to take advantage of the bathhouse-warm Gulf waters.

So will Sally relocate to the MLC ?

[wxman57]

Looking like a very sheared 35-40kt TS. TS winds only over a small area east of center.

[TheStormExpert]

Shear continues to keep her from intensifying quickly. Sally may not be a big wind event when all is said and done but could be remembered as a big rain event, saved loop showing the shear as the storm is asymmetric with most activity east of the center:

https://i.postimg.cc/MZ7x1fkb/B8-D2-D911-BE17-4036-B580-E4-CAA396500-B.gif

I’m thinking the same gatorcane! And to think this is peak season?

Well at least it probably won’t be as bad as some were expecting if this continues to be the case. But flooding will still be a SERIOUS issue!

[TheStormExpert]

Looking like a very sheared 35-40kt TS.

http://wxman57.com/images/Sally5.JPG

Where have I’ve seen this before? Marco anyone.

[ConvergenceZone]

Shear continues to keep her from intensifying quickly. Sally may not be a big wind event when all is said and done but could be remembered as a big rain event, saved loop showing the shear as the storm is asymmetric with most activity east of the center:

https://i.postimg.cc/MZ7x1fkb/B8-D2-D911-BE17-4036-B580-E4-CAA396500-B.gif

Today is the telling tale. If we go to bed tonight and it still hasn't stacked. The NHC will need to drop down their wind-speed forecast. I still say 65 to 75 MPH at landfall with the assumption that it's not going to stack much today. Which is probably what many of the models are seeing as well. We'll see

[wxman57]

Looking like a very sheared 35-40kt TS.

http://wxman57.com/images/Sally5.JPG

Where have I’ve seen this before? Marco anyone.

If shear lets up then it can strengthen quickly. No way this is now a 60mph TS.

[GCANE]

Miss Piggy reports extrap 997.6 mb with 18 knts SFMR.
Appears pressure is dropping from AF300's last report.

[StormPyrate]

Just a little breezy and steady rain here in St Pete.
We have had afternoon squalls worse

[ElectricStorm]

When is the shear supposed to relax? I thought that was already going to happen by now

[DestinHurricane]

Looking like a very sheared 35-40kt TS.

http://wxman57.com/images/Sally5.JPG

Where have I’ve seen this before? Marco anyone.

If shear lets up then it can strengthen quickly. No way this is now a 60mph TS.

I believe the 60mph was based on recon data. It's hard to fight that data.

[bohai]

I am surprised that no one has discussed potential storm surge and its effects on the Mississippi River. I read somewhere years ago that a storm heading northward just to the west of the mouth could cause flow to stop exiting in to the Gulf creating massive back flow up the river and lots of resultant flooding from that effect.

[KimmieLa]

Looking like a very sheared 35-40kt TS.

http://wxman57.com/images/Sally5.JPG

Where have I’ve seen this before? Marco anyone.

I sure hope its another Marco. Intensification wasn't expected until late tonight and early tomorrow per the NHC. Hoping this system does not get its act together for the sake of all in it's path, and that includes lack of rain. I have seen what 25-30 inches of rain can do to an area, I lived it with a no name storm in 2016. NO, no Sally!

[GCANE]

Another high helicity tower just finished leaving a warm-core feature.