ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Steve]

I'm in Splendora just northeast of Houston on 59N. We just had a pwerful little cell blow through coming from the NNE. Would that be part of the outer reaches? Don't usually get rain from the east at all.

I think indirectly. It’s moving with the flow of the storm but I think the farthest west band was the first rain we got from it. I don’t have a link to long term radar on my phone to track it back. There was some mid level energy in MS a day or so back and probably some pop up storms. Maybe it got picked up for the ride. But it’s moving in the direction of that side of the storm.

Meant to post radar
https://radar.weather.gov/ridge/Conus/s ... y_loop.php

[aspen]

Has Cristobal disconnected from the single band of convection to the east? It looks like it mainly has from my untrained eye.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

Haha. Gotta break that out once a year when mid level air and drying looks suspect. Isaac was I think the worst ever. It had a back side but the lack of rain on the front side saved us from bigger problems. Joe mentioned seeding clouds in his summary today (MH). I say leave it alone unless you know all the consequences.

I’ll give Cristobal credit for tenacity. He may never amount to anything, but nothing can fully stop him. I’m waiting to see what happens tonight because if new storms wrap, it’s that much closer to the coast and more likely to rotate across land. Spotty bands here but maybe .2” so far.

First little quick hitter blob just finished up here. Dropped a good bit quickly. Definitely heavy tropical rains compared to normal late afternoon storms. Afternoon sun and heat helped it blossom. Doesn’t look like much though for the rest of the evening.

[gotabyte]

We are getting light to moderate rain bands here. Tide up about a foot since noon. Radar shows steady light rain to the East heading this way. Should be a fun few days.

[toad strangler]

Has Cristobal disconnected from the single band of convection to the east? It looks like it mainly has from my untrained eye.

Modeling has shown that the huge dry air wedge infiltrating the main circulation would eventually decapitate the huge outer feeder band ... or ARM it should probably be called. So if that has happened the core has a better shot of tightening up somewhat before landfall. Levi Cowan has also been talking about this. I wouldn't expect any RI but perhaps some sharpening of the core once it is it's own circular ball of moisture ...

[Nimbus]

Low level circulation is tightening up and convection is building over the center again.
Still tracking just east of north.

[aspen]

Pressure appears to be 990, maybe 989 mbar in the latest pass. So far flight level winds have topped out at 45 kt.

[Steve]

Has Cristobal disconnected from the single band of convection to the east? It looks like it mainly has from my untrained eye.

Modeling has shown that the huge dry air wedge infiltrating the main circulation would eventually decapitate the huge outer feeder band ... or ARM it should probably be called. So if that has happened the core has a better shot of tightening up somewhat before landfall. Levi Cowan has also been talking about this. I wouldn't expect any RI but perhaps some sharpening of the core once it is it's own circular ball of moisture ...

It’s a beast though. Usually those fade to the east and die off, but i guess it had enough energy with it to cause a ruckus in Florida with worse to come if it holds together.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[Steve]

Pressure appears to be 990, maybe 989 mbar in the latest pass. So far flight level winds have topped out at 45 kt.

Maybe that burst n/nw of the center is helping drop the pressure. I never made a call on the storm but I did say I thought it could get to 988. I guess gut call which is wimpy a day out is that it gets to 989 (not sure about what it will be at landfall) and probably somewhere around Grand Isle/Port Fourchon. I’ll give it 50mph which could be high or low. FWIW, UKMet 12z as per SFWMD model plots does have an east of 90 run for a couple of degrees and landfalls a little east of the NHC or other globals. It’s been erratic with Cristobal but sometimes the UK is known for being an outlier (slight or major) and being correct.

My bad on the link. Here it is.
https://www.sfwmd.gov/weather-radar/hur ... odel-plots

[hipshot]

Hook echoes, hook echoes everywhere

Are you talking hook echoes as in possible tornado? If so, y'all find a good safe place to hang for awhile.

Yes, hook echoes are usually a sign of a tornado in a supercell.

I live in the DFW area and for the life of me, I can't see what a hook echo looks like, I must really be looking for something else.

[bella_may]

Does appear to be strengthening on radar at least

[psyclone]

Well the mega band (that I earlier thought would stay to my west....oops) back edge is in sight. thank goodness. we've had enough plus an extra scoop..

[bqknight]

Hook echoes, hook echoes everywhere

Are you talking hook echoes as in possible tornado? If so, y'all find a good safe place to hang for awhile.

Yes, hook echoes are usually a sign of a tornado in a supercell.

There was a tornado that just passed through Downtown Orlando.

https://twitter.com/News6Justin/status/ ... 73408?s=20

[Kazmit]

Recon finding 55kt+ flight-level winds...

[MississippiWx]

Recon finding 55kt+ flight-level winds...

Yeah, and on the southeast side of the circulation that is void of thunderstorms. Interesting.

[Aric Dunn]

Are you talking hook echoes as in possible tornado? If so, y'all find a good safe place to hang for awhile.

Yes, hook echoes are usually a sign of a tornado in a supercell.

There was a tornado that just passed through Downtown Orlando.

https://twitter.com/News6Justin/status/ ... 73408?s=20

I like the title of it.. "possible" tornado.. lol

[TheStormExpert]

Feeling much much better about this than I was a few days ago when I thought a hurricane was going to slam into the northern gulf states. They goodness for all of the dry air and lack of convection.... Also very thankful that it's moving so fast and not just barely moving like past storms. Should be a very short lived event.....

Cristobal is more of a wake-up reminder that hurricane season is here and now is the time to prepare. Should be in and out with little fanfare.

Agreed, no needed hype with this storm for sure. I feel bad for the folks in Mexico, they are the ones who got it bad. . I'm sure there will still be some spots of localized flooding as it hits the Gulf Coast. Because there's still going to be some off and on heavy rain bands in spite of all of the dry air.

Yeah just watching The Weather Channel and they always seem to hype these Tropical Storms up a little too much! Anyways there was tornado reported near Downtown Orlando in the last hour thanks to one of the outer bands of Cristobal.

[TheStormExpert]

Yes, hook echoes are usually a sign of a tornado in a supercell.

There was a tornado that just passed through Downtown Orlando.

https://twitter.com/News6Justin/status/ ... 73408?s=20

I like the title of it.. "possible" tornado.. lol

 https://twitter.com/news6justin/status/1269424510106771456

[drezee]

Buoy 42001 down to 993mb...

[Dylan]

 https://twitter.com/dylanfedericowx/status/1269427034675130370