ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[ColdMiser123]

Landfall on hour 129 at Wilmington. Peak gusts of 65-70 KT with 45-50 KT sustained wind at landfall on the Euro.

[STRiZZY]

Euro 12z looks way off on it's location of PTC9's position at initialization to me.

[wzrgirl1]

https://twitter.com/hurrtrackerapp/status/1288540067007528961

Yep, Saved By the Trough!

Thank God.

[gatorcane]

12Z JMA recurvess this just east of of Florida through the Bahamas.There are too many models that are now showing something similar. NHC probably will shift the track a bit to the east at 5pm.

[WeatherEmperor]

Just something to think about. The Euro at 144hrs shifted from a weak low in the eastern Gulf all the way to NJ from 0z compared to the 12z. Perhaps this is just the windshield wiper effect some of us talk about??





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[boca]

It seems like we are always saved by the trough but I rather be out of cone which usually happens when we are initially in the cone. We will probably have a nice weekend after all but I hold off until tomorrow to be correct.

[Blown Away]

12z Euro... Skims DR, Skirts FL, landfall NC... Wow

[chaser1]

To verify, development will have to occur immediately

[toad strangler]

I don't believe the output of ANY model post island interaction.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Just something to think about. The Euro at 144hrs shifted from a weak low in the eastern Gulf all the way to NJ from 0z compared to the 12z. Perhaps this is just the windshield wiper effect some of us talk about??

https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200729/469cf874d3355fdec110d4e5cde83e92.png
https://uploads.tapatalk-cdn.com/20200729/8afadcf2e5df3b30ce8b784d9b8d50ca.png


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Always very possible. Might guess is the NHC does a gentle shift to the east, and will continue to shift as needed. They're very good at not overreacting to model trends.

[AutoPenalti]

Magic trough saves the day on the 12z Euro. That’s very interesting.

[HurricaneFrances04]

https://i.imgur.com/lfjdU4q.gif

12z EURO...

What? Look where the Euro is initializing this - at about 16N & 62W. I'm pretty sure that train left the station. Seems to have initialized development to far to the east. For that forecast to be dead on, that northern lobe will have to immediately cut-off, rapidly deepen, and practically move NNW - NOW lol. Does anybody else actually see occurring?

The initialization was at 8 am this morning

[SFLcane]

Those HWRF and HMON runs aren't looking so crazy now. Atleast on the 12z suite. Conditions maybe favorable in the bahamas.

[SFLcane]

EPS should be telling..

[Blown Away]

Someone post 12z Ukmet?

[Stormcenter]

Not drinking the model Koolaid just yet and
this powerful trough.

[SoupBone]

These model runs, like the latest EURO, just seem like the same windshield wiper we've seen over the last week. Thing is though, it's coming down to only a few days left before whatever happens in the US, happens.

[WxEp]

Someone post 12z Ukmet?

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.07.2020 0 15.8N 62.6W 1007 32
0000UTC 30.07.2020 12 16.3N 65.4W 1005 34
1200UTC 30.07.2020 24 18.1N 68.2W 1004 43
0000UTC 31.07.2020 36 19.7N 70.8W 1003 48
1200UTC 31.07.2020 48 20.3N 74.0W 1004 41
0000UTC 01.08.2020 60 21.4N 76.4W 1004 41
1200UTC 01.08.2020 72 22.1N 79.1W 1006 31
0000UTC 02.08.2020 84 23.6N 80.6W 1005 37
1200UTC 02.08.2020 96 24.2N 82.2W 1007 27
0000UTC 03.08.2020 108 25.8N 82.2W 1006 30
1200UTC 03.08.2020 120 27.0N 83.0W 1008 23
0000UTC 04.08.2020 132 29.4N 82.0W 1007 32
1200UTC 04.08.2020 144 32.0N 80.1W 1004 36

[northjaxpro]

I have been extremely busy today, but had a moment to chime in on a thought or two. Let us remember, we still do not officially have an established center of circulation YET.

I am not going to be comfortable with any of the models until we have this CoC finally nailed down.

Plus I will wait until whatever becomes of this to see if it can survive the Hispaniola hurdle to see how it all evolves.

[Aric Dunn]

Not drinking the model Koolaid just yet and
this powerful trough.

Very wise.. lol