ATL: SALLY - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[KimmieLa]

I am surprised that no one has discussed potential storm surge and its effects on the Mississippi River. I read somewhere years ago that a storm heading northward just to the west of the mouth could cause flow to stop exiting in to the Gulf creating massive back flow up the river and lots of resultant flooding from that effect.

I don't want to even think about it. Flooding is no joke, if you have ever lived through it, it is not something you want to repeat.

[GCANE]

About 2 hrs ago, AMSU sounder analysis of thermal profile.
Vertical red line is CoC.
Warm core and cold pool not yet stacked.
Appears to be a small thermal inversion under the warm core.
At least the cold pool is sustaining the firing of hot towers.

[Craters]

Woke up to weather alerts for the new advisory. Headed to Lowe’s here on the northshore as they open to grab a generator and some extra supplies. Riding out my first storm as a homeowner. I’ve had a bad feeling but didn’t want to overreact, but it’s time finalize the prep.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with overreacting over something like this! If nothing were to happen, you'd be that much more ready for the next one. In fact, if you treat it like a "simulation" for the Big One, you might not feel like you're overreacting at all...

(Great username, by the way!!)

[psyclone]

Sally looks less organized now than 6 hours ago. Every attempt to organize is thwarted by persistent shear. the system is a rain bomb for sure (QPF doesn't correlate to strength or organization...but more to forward motion). There's still potential. It's a vigorous system over warm water at peak season. Stuff can happen fast and that possibility certainly can't be discounted. But it is very much worth remembering that all big storms start as seeds but not all seeds become big storms. In fact, most do not. And that's the trickery of memory. We remember Katrina but far more recent and far less impressive storms (like Gordon 2018) are quickly forgotten. Sally is already an impressive rain event for the Keys and the lower west coast of Florida from Sarasota southward. Good luck to everyone in the hot zone..

[Steve]

Looking like a very sheared 35-40kt TS.

http://wxman57.com/images/Sally5.JPG

Where have I’ve seen this before? Marco anyone.

Anyone? How much money do you have to lose?

[GCANE]

Tagged 1000mb at 27.57N 85.32W
996.9mb extrap at 27.57N 85.20W

Slightly east of the center of the cold pool.
ML CoC to the west of that and warm core further west.

[LarryWx]

Sally looks less organized now than 6 hours ago. Every attempt to organize is thwarted by persistent shear. the system is a rain bomb for sure (QPF doesn't correlate to strength or organization...but more to forward motion). There's still potential. It's a vigorous system over warm water at peak season. Stuff can happen fast and that possibility certainly can't be discounted. But it is very much worth remembering that all big storms start as seeds but not all seeds become big storms. In fact, most do not. And that's the trickery of memory. We remember Katrina but far more recent and far less impressive storms (like Gordon 2018) are quickly forgotten. Sally is already an impressive rain event for the Keys and the lower west coast of Florida from Sarasota southward. Good luck to everyone in the hot zone..

What do you think the chances are that this ends up stronger than Gordon of 2018, which took a similar track over similar 30C E GOM waters with some shear to deal with and was also during the heart of the season?

viewtopic.php?f=88&t=119828&start=600

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_ ... rdon_(2018)

[GCANE]

Latest hot tower, leaving behind another warm-core feature.
Its east of Miss Piggy's fix and hence the cold pool.
Another small one north of the surface CoC.
Apparently the warm core wants to develop over the cold pool.

[SohCahToa]

Woke up to weather alerts for the new advisory. Headed to Lowe’s here on the northshore as they open to grab a generator and some extra supplies. Riding out my first storm as a homeowner. I’ve had a bad feeling but didn’t want to overreact, but it’s time finalize the prep.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with overreacting over something like this! If nothing were to happen, you'd be that much more ready for the next one. In fact, if you treat it like a "simulation" for the Big One, you might not feel like you're overreacting at all...

(Great username, by the way!!)

Yeah we decided to go ahead and pull the trigger on a generator. My girl keeps the house pretty stocked with the usuals like cases of water, batteries, etc. we have a 65 gallon fish tank to keep powered plus a dog and 4 cats, so we went ahead and invested in the generator. Just finished getting it prepped to my panel and now we will sit back and watch how it plays out.

As for Sally, feeling a little better than I did at 4am, but we aren’t out of the woods by far. Not going to get much sleep the next few days.

[psyclone]

Sally looks less organized now than 6 hours ago. Every attempt to organize is thwarted by persistent shear. the system is a rain bomb for sure (QPF doesn't correlate to strength or organization...but more to forward motion). There's still potential. It's a vigorous system over warm water at peak season. Stuff can happen fast and that possibility certainly can't be discounted. But it is very much worth remembering that all big storms start as seeds but not all seeds become big storms. In fact, most do not. And that's the trickery of memory. We remember Katrina but far more recent and far less impressive storms (like Gordon 2018) are quickly forgotten. Sally is already an impressive rain event for the Keys and the lower west coast of Florida from Sarasota southward. Good luck to everyone in the hot zone..

What do you think the chances are that this ends up stronger than Gordon of 2018, which took a similar track over similar 30C E GOM waters with some shear to deal with and was also during the heart of the season?

viewtopic.php?f=88&t=119828&start=600

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Tropical_ ... rdon_(2018)

The real answer is I'm not qualified to answer but I'll hazard a guess that it ends up as more than Gordon. But will it be enough to reference 5 or 10 years from now as a memory maker? As of now i am a "lean no". Were i in the strike zone at this point i would prepare with vigor but maintain an optimistic disposition. Stuff can happen really fast at peak season. Some level of paranoia (respect for the calendar and location) is definitely warranted.

[GCANE]

Successive line of towers firing east to west just north of the Surface CoC / Cold Pool.
This could be it.

[Jr0d]

Considering most of the rain came from the SE quadrant and there was no surge to add to the flooding, the Florida Keys were fortunate it was not worse. The squall that came through Key West around 10:00 last night dropped over 4" in an hour in some areas.

[LarryWx]

Considering most of the rain came from the SE quadrant and there was no surge to add to the flooding, the Florida Keys were fortunate it was not worse. The squall that came through Key West around 10:00 last night dropped over 4" in an hour in some areas.

https://i.ibb.co/VDNghGT/119136755-3904329519581925-3700731166086474430-n.png

[weeniepatrol]

[RL3AO]

I'm just not seeing it. It's still getting sheared quite a bit.

[mpic]

Woke up to weather alerts for the new advisory. Headed to Lowe’s here on the northshore as they open to grab a generator and some extra supplies. Riding out my first storm as a homeowner. I’ve had a bad feeling but didn’t want to overreact, but it’s time finalize the prep.

There's absolutely nothing wrong with overreacting over something like this! If nothing were to happen, you'd be that much more ready for the next one. In fact, if you treat it like a "simulation" for the Big One, you might not feel like you're overreacting at all...

(Great username, by the way!!)

Agree 100% with Craters. I packed up everything outside and my car is still packed to leave since Marco spun up. I only keep a week's worth of food in the frig until mid October. This year is the most prepared I've been but don't regret it. You'll also learn something new each year regarding preparations.

[MGC]

Shear and some mid level dry air appears to be keeping Sally in check this afternoon. Looks like a June type TC, very lopsided. NHC has lowered the wind intensity a bit at landfall, lets hope that trend continues....MGC

[Nimbus]

GFS and HWRF still forecasting the stall keeping Sally over water for 48 hours.
This Convection wrap might signal a resumption in pressure drops tonight.
All the shear barbs are aligned on the latest recon pass and nothing at 200 mb visible in WV imagery.

I was lucky and bought my generator on sale about 2 weeks before Irma, power was out longer than the motor break in period but it didn't seem to hurt anything so when the power came back on I just changed the oil.

[Stormcenter]

Shear keeping Sally in check for the short term.

[us89]

Considering most of the rain came from the SE quadrant and there was no surge to add to the flooding, the Florida Keys were fortunate it was not worse. The squall that came through Key West around 10:00 last night dropped over 4" in an hour in some areas.

https://i.ibb.co/VDNghGT/119136755-3904329519581925-3700731166086474430-n.png

Those are certainly impressive rain totals, but what impresses me more is how much variation there was over very small distances. The Key West airport in particular isn't even two miles from the WFO downtown, but it got 2 inches more rain.