ATL: DELTA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[plasticup]

Maybe they'll decide to stop using the Greek alphabet starting next year and just have a second list of names in case we use up all names from the first list. But I have no idea and (even though they said they wouldn't retire any Greek names) tbh I think atm even the NHC doesn't know what to do now that Delta is becoming as big as it is. There are a lot more high priority things they're worrying about now (i.e. Delta's current state) than possible future retirement, but once Delta is gone I think the discussion regarding possible retirement will begin.

FYI the list of hurricane names and decisions about retirement come from the World Meteorological Organization, an intergovernmental organization. It is absolutely not the purview of the United States alone.

[aspen]

Haishen, Marie, and Delta — all three attempted to become pinhole eye Cat 5s, but all failed. I wonder what Marie would’ve been if it had recon; it actually had a clear-ish eye.

[wx98]

This is just my opinion so don’t hit me, but generally after an EWRC, the inner core is never quite the same as it was before during the initial ramp up phase. What we may see here is (if indeed there is an EWRC) a minimal Cat 4 heading into the Yucatán. It may not have enough time to resolve its core and try to reintensify. On the other hand, if it resolves quickly it may ramp on up to an upper end Cat 4. Regardless, in my opinion, an EWRC means Cat 5 is off the table looking at how much time it has left before hitting Quintana Roo.

I may be wrong, but those are my thoughts...

[kevin]

Maybe they'll decide to stop using the Greek alphabet starting next year and just have a second list of names in case we use up all names from the first list. But I have no idea and (even though they said they wouldn't retire any Greek names) tbh I think atm even the NHC doesn't know what to do now that Delta is becoming as big as it is. There are a lot more high priority things they're worrying about now (i.e. Delta's current state) than possible future retirement, but once Delta is gone I think the discussion regarding possible retirement will begin.

FYI the list of hurricane names and decisions about retirement come from the World Meteorological Organization, an intergovernmental organization. It is absolutely not the purview of the United States alone.

Oh interesting, I didn't know about that. I mean it makes sense that the US isn't the only one who has a say in retirement of storms, but I never thought of it that way in terms of coming up with name lists.

[facemane]

Excellent observation and I agree.


quote="MississippiWx"]

Dr Steve Caparotta our local Meteorologist just shared this. If one of yall could find a better image please share this is screen grab from a vid. But this is a scary model, wind field much wider

https://i.postimg.cc/4dQNJjDF/D4.png

One bit of information that seems to be going largely unnoticed is how much Delta grows in the Gulf of Mexico. I’m Afraid people are looking at its current small size and extrapolating that to US landfall when models are showing it grow rather large.

Thats what im afraid of as well, “oh the hurricane force winds only extend out X miles, so im good” complacency is deadly.

That being said, if anyone could answer this, what happens when a Greek alphabet storm because extremely destructive and deadly? You cant just retire the greek alphabet. Genuinely curious as to what kind of protocol would happen, if say Wilma, Rita or Katrina devastation occurred (im not saying thats going to happen)[/quote]

Greek alphabet names are not retired. If Delta becomes destructive the name Delta 2020 will be retired. It will still be used as needed in future years

[GCANE]

Usually going from a pinhole to a 20+ nm wide eye doesn't take long. Maybe on the order of 10 hrs or less.

 https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1313571830867820549

[FLpanhandle91]

Take this with a grain of salt as I am not a professional, but i believe this EWRC/change in Delta's structure may have brought down the ceiling on its intensity quite a bit. While it could still achieve cat 5 status, the insane 160kt+ predictions made by some here truly hinged on the tight inner core with steep pressure gradients we saw in place this morning.

[EquusStorm]

Gotta love those insanely high topped convective bursts just continuously obscuring and slingshotting around the center

[us89]

Even if this doesn’t reach Cat 5 intensity before it hits the Yucatan, there will still be time for that once it pulls out into the Gulf of Mexico. Hurricane models were hinting at this earlier today, with max intensities not in the NW Caribbean but in the west-central Gulf.

[aspen]

Is the EWRC just about over already? Or will it continue for longer?

[edu2703]

5:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 6
Location: 18.9°N 84.1°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

[Beef Stew]

5:00 PM EDT Tue Oct 6
Location: 18.9°N 84.1°W
Moving: WNW at 17 mph
Min pressure: 956 mb
Max sustained: 145 mph

[edu2703]

NHc increased peak to 135 kts in 12 hours

[zal0phus]

Take this with a very large grain of salt but I wonder if this is the peak intensity. The EWRC may have put a cap on Delta, and this year has a habit of ripping storms apart.

[Beef Stew]

"There has been no evidence of an outer eyewall from the aircraft
reports or earlier radar imagery from Grand Cayman. As a
result, some additional strengthening is likely to occur before
Delta reaches the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula late
tonight or early Wednesday."

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 18.9N 84.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 20.2N 86.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.8W 105 KT 120 MPH

Per the NHC. No note of an EWRC in this advisory, but that could still change going forward, especially if recon indicates as such when it arrives.

[wx98]

"There has been no evidence of an outer eyewall from the aircraft
reports or earlier radar imagery from Grand Cayman. As a
result, some additional strengthening is likely to occur before
Delta reaches the northeastern coast of the Yucatan peninsula late
tonight or early Wednesday."

FORECAST POSITIONS AND MAX WINDS

INIT 06/2100Z 18.9N 84.1W 125 KT 145 MPH
12H 07/0600Z 20.2N 86.1W 135 KT 155 MPH
24H 07/1800Z 21.8N 88.8W 105 KT 120 MPH

Per the NHC. No note of an EWRC in this advisory, but that could still change going forward, especially if recon indicates as such when it arrives.

With due respect to them, recon left over 3 hours ago, and this talk of an EWRC only began around an hour and a half ago or so.

[Chris90]

This is just my opinion so don’t hit me, but generally after an EWRC, the inner core is never quite the same as it was before during the initial ramp up phase. What we may see here is (if indeed there is an EWRC) a minimal Cat 4 heading into the Yucatán. It may not have enough time to resolve its core and try to reintensify. On the other hand, if it resolves quickly it may ramp on up to an upper end Cat 4. Regardless, in my opinion, an EWRC means Cat 5 is off the table looking at how much time it has left before hitting Quintana Roo.

I may be wrong, but those are my thoughts...

There's a good chance an ERC has limited Delta due to time constraints.

ERCs don't limit intensity ceiling on all storms though. Irma reached her peak after going through several ERCs in the days proceeding.

If I'm remembering correctly, Wilma had a lot of banding, several intense bands, but the pinhole kept on for awhile to get to 882mb. Delta's pinhole might not be done yet. The next few hours will be interesting.

[edu2703]

Take this with a very large grain of salt but I wonder if this is the peak intensity. The EWRC may have put a cap on Delta, and this year has a habit of ripping storms apart.

I think there's enough time to finish its EWRC, resuming stregntening before landfall and maybe has a chance to reach a higher peak. Although IR satelite presentation has degraded compared to hours ago, I don't think Delta has weakened much. Maybe down to 120-130 mph.

Of course, we need the recon data to confirm this.

[aspen]

If the EWRC is finishing up as quickly as some microwave imagery suggests, Delta would probably resume strengthening because landfall isn’t for another 15-18 hours, mid-level shear will be lower, and OHC/SSTs will remain absurdly high. However, a long EWRC will lead to a sloppy-core system crashing into the Yucatán — still probably a major, but not yet another RI landfall system.

Also, a system in the middle of an EWRC could have some wobbles to the north and south. Yutu was beginning an EWRC on approach to the Marianas and wobbled north, making a direct landfall as a 150-155 kt Cat 5.

[supercane4867]

Hard to tell what is really going on without recon but Delta does have a sheared appearance on satellite.