ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Shell Mound]

I have a feeling that a Charley like track is becoming possible if they find the lowest pressures in the convection which is a good distance SW of where the hurricane center has it. This system is such a pain to forecast

I’ve always been concerned about a much larger, more intense version of Charley that doesn’t deviate eastward and strikes Tampa Bay “head on” instead.

[toad strangler]

lol...what is a profile pic wager?

If it misses Hispaniola I will change my profile pic for ONE WEEK to a hot dog with mustard on it. (Weenie) If it hits you do same.

Your on! Of course, we have to have a center for it to miss...

Done and confirmed on center.

[ScottNAtlanta]

If it misses Hispaniola I will change my profile pic for ONE WEEK to a hot dog with mustard on it. (Weenie) If it hits you do same.

Your on! Of course, we have to have a center for it to miss...

Done and confirmed on center.

...it might never have a center at this rate. You see people...this is a fun way to settle your disagreements...the weenie way

[Hurricaneman]

I have a feeling that a Charley like track is becoming possible if they find the lowest pressures in the convection which is a good distance SW of where the hurricane center has it. This system is such a pain to forecast

I’ve always been concerned about a much larger, more intense version of Charley that doesn’t deviate eastward and strikes Tampa Bay “head on” instead.

Not forecasting that yet as we need a true center before I go ahead with it as of right now I’m forecasting it to go through Haiti and up the Windward passage Catching the eastern tip of Cuba

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon is turning west...maybe they are doing a parallel diagonal pattern. Is that a thing with recon?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

In heavy convection.
40 mm/hr rain rate.

Big wind
55.9 knot 30-sec SFMR in the clear.

Likely a ghost IMHO, flight level winds do not match up.

[tiger_deF]

Looking much better this morning that's for sure

[FLpanhandle91]

Wind field seems to indicate an elongated center from roughly 16N 64W to 16N 63W.

[GCANE]

32 knots SFMR outside the convection.

[hipshot]

In heavy convection.
40 mm/hr rain rate.

Hell, we get that in an afternoon shower here in Tx.

[Aric Dunn]

More than enough to support a 45mph TS a soon as they close off a center.

[SoupBone]

I have a feeling that a Charley like track is becoming possible if they find the lowest pressures in the convection which is a good distance SW of where the hurricane center has it. This system is such a pain to forecast

I’ve always been concerned about a much larger, more intense version of Charley that doesn’t deviate eastward and strikes Tampa Bay “head on” instead.

Has that ever happened to Tampa Bay? Hard right hook into the bay? It always seems that when they do get hit, it's from a system moving east to west, rather than west to east.

[ScottNAtlanta]

So I'm not a weenie...

[youtube]https://youtu.be/LNBjMRvOB5M[/youtube]

[GCANE]

In heavy convection.
40 mm/hr rain rate.

Big wind
55.9 knot 30-sec SFMR in the clear.

Likely a ghost IMHO, flight level winds do not match up.

Likely a downdraft hitting the water and splattering out as a boundary layer.
That was heavy rain rate.

[ScottNAtlanta]

They are finding some lower pressures on the last couple of obs. Its also where that hot tower is firing.

[MidnightRain]

I have a feeling that a Charley like track is becoming possible if they find the lowest pressures in the convection which is a good distance SW of where the hurricane center has it. This system is such a pain to forecast

Yeah, I’m not buying into anything until after we get a solidified grasp of the center, which hopefully will be today. The trend has been west while the models continually stay stubborn with a NW motion almost immediately. I’ve done this long enough to know something isn’t right.

[GCANE]

A few Tropical Storm SFMR 30-sec in the clear measurements.
Any west wind and its named.

[ScottNAtlanta]

Recon just found a wind shift from S to E, and the pressure of 1006.8 is the lowest thus far

[tailgater]

A pretty good wind shift there on the last pass. If there is a center it would just a little south there.

[Visioen]

At this point my best guess for a track would be to close my eyes and draw a line.

Which is exactly what I did: