ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[WeatherEmperor]

Someone post 12z Ukmet?

You can use this link. You can either click on the "UKMET" link for text output or on "storm09" to see it plotted on the model map. The UKMET is the blue line

https://apps.sfwmd.gov/sfwmd/common/ima ... plots.html

[DestinHurricane]

Someone post 12z Ukmet?

LEAD CENTRAL MAXIMUM WIND
VERIFYING TIME TIME POSITION PRESSURE (MB) SPEED (KNOTS)
-------------- ---- -------- ------------- -------------
1200UTC 29.07.2020 0 15.8N 62.6W 1007 32
0000UTC 30.07.2020 12 16.3N 65.4W 1005 34
1200UTC 30.07.2020 24 18.1N 68.2W 1004 43
0000UTC 31.07.2020 36 19.7N 70.8W 1003 48
1200UTC 31.07.2020 48 20.3N 74.0W 1004 41
0000UTC 01.08.2020 60 21.4N 76.4W 1004 41
1200UTC 01.08.2020 72 22.1N 79.1W 1006 31
0000UTC 02.08.2020 84 23.6N 80.6W 1005 37
1200UTC 02.08.2020 96 24.2N 82.2W 1007 27
0000UTC 03.08.2020 108 25.8N 82.2W 1006 30
1200UTC 03.08.2020 120 27.0N 83.0W 1008 23
0000UTC 04.08.2020 132 29.4N 82.0W 1007 32
1200UTC 04.08.2020 144 32.0N 80.1W 1004 36

It rides the spine of the Greater Antilles. Very weak.

[caneseddy]

Those HWRF and HMON runs aren't looking so crazy now. Atleast on the 12z suite. Conditions maybe favorable in the bahamas.

Or Navgem

[SFLcane]

 https://twitter.com/KieranBhatia/status/1288548343493386240

[SFLcane]

12z EPS clustering right around SFL..

[HurricaneFrances04]

And looks like more ensembles actually have a storm too, albeit not too strong.

[WeatherEmperor]

12z Navgem on its closest approach to South Florida. Looks like the eye wall scrapes Florida on its way to...you guessed it...NC




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[AutoPenalti]

So for the Euro to verify that trough, we need to actually see a trough develop like.. now.

[Aric Dunn]

You know it is really bad when we have to resort to seriously considering the NAVGEN... lol

[Hd444]

You know it is really bad when we have to resort to seriously considering the NAVGEN... lol

The trough has been there every darn run . If the system Is stronger like euro says its simple go up cost

[ColdMiser123]

More 12z EPS members show at least a TS compared to 6z. Maybe close to 40-50%.

[ColdMiser123]

Almost all the significant members are east of Florida now on the EPS, with the exception of one member.

[caneseddy]

[Blown Away]

Almost all the significant members are east of Florida now on the EPS, with the exception of one member.

Safe to say the Euro caved to the GFS???

[Evan_Wilson]

If this can get it’s act together in a few hours I doubt it will be weak enough to make it to the gulf.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Canadian members not joining the east party yet:

[AxaltaRacing24]

it is important not to overreact to swings across florida back and forth. this happened during irma too and countless other storms as well. the models likely are not done windshield wiping.

[Hd444]

Sfc low forming on northern end of wave .

[gatorcane]

TVCN skimming SE Florida. That's quite a bit east of the red line (NHC) track:

[SFLcane]

You guys do realize that nogaps has been showing this track for days. Lol