ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[AutoPenalti]

NHC forecasting favorable conditions, remember that.

[SFLcane]

Why you don't bet against an EC/GFS/UKMET consensus

[Aric Dunn]

Why you don't bet against an EC/GFS/UKMET consensus

when they started doing horrible with genesis this year.. over and over and over.. you should start betting against them lol

[chaser1]

Anyone want to take bets on whether this or Fourteen will become Laura? NHC has backed off from storm in 12 hours, so they're leaning into Fourteen now.

These are kind of funny but they're made with the benefit of hindsight. everyone is going to be inaccurate. In fairness, Dorian's survival was very much in doubt in the east caribbean. The NHC forecasts kind of split the difference with a rather modest intensity in the early outlooks (sound familiar?). For every case such as this we can find many more where the hype squad pushed a dud that failed to blossom. Will they be held to the same standards? I doubt it. I'm surprised i didn't get scorched on this list....as i distinctly recall tilting toward dissipation in the carib...although i expected a big hurricane if it survived to the Bahamas. It's really astonishingly similar to what is going on now. Speaking more broadly Dorian and 13 remind us how often the tropics are almost a coin toss in some cases. I'd suggest the coin is in the air again and the official forecast kind of splits the difference. Acknowledgement of low confidence is a bit of nod to this phenomenon. The NHC gang sure has my respect.

I don't post here too much, but as a long-time (since '05) lurker, I always thought, in a purely friendly and humorous (not argumentative or gotcha) way, with much love for all the many different flavours of contributors and their approach to the tropics, it might be a fun tradition to "bring out the receipts" as part of a recap at the end of a storm thread or a season. Mostly just for the sake of fun, although helping users calibrate our bulls and our bears might be helpful. Seeing how the Storm2K groupmind reacts to storms is precisely why I love browsing through the old storm archives (Wilma, Epsilon and 2005 in general are particularly fascinating reads); I'm not a known name here, but from an outsider's perspective, I think the bonds in this community are strong precisely because we're all a familiar family of hurricane nerds applying our different perspectives and our traditional reactions to the tropics, and there's something very entertaining about being part of that (which is why we're here, posting rather than keeping our thoughts to ourselves!).

I think that's a pretty cool perspective. Granted, personalities are all different and therefore we all tend to communicate in differing ways. I personally think a storm thread post-mortum would be fun and a cool idea.... so long as the banter is friendly. I dont think everyone would enjoy it equally though; Just as there may be those having a greater or lesser capacity for having humility and the capacity (willingness) to laugh at ones self or just say "oh, I really blew that call. Nice post by you and would be a fun convo to have during or post season. Maybe the type of discussion more easily has in the Discord Chat??

[Sanibel]

It needs a center burst soon or it's in trouble...

[Aric Dunn]

[cheezyWXguy]

Why you don't bet against an EC/GFS/UKMET consensus

Did you miss ozone’s post about how model hugging and aversion is forecaster suicide? Or are you just trolling?

[SFLcane]

just an FYI shear is going to drop off fast over night.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

The structure right now isn't even due to that shear.
It's due to the fast mid level flow and dry air. HWRF just corrected itself . Euro is king

[Aric Dunn]

just an FYI shear is going to drop off fast over night.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

The structure right now isn't even due to that shear.
It's due to the fast mid level flow and dry air. HWRF just corrected itself . Euro is king

and blocked for trolling... have fun..

[BYG Jacob]

just an FYI shear is going to drop off fast over night.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

The structure right now isn't even due to that shear.
It's due to the fast mid level flow and dry air. HWRF just corrected itself . Euro is king

This looks a lot like -removed-. I know hurricanes aren't fun to deal with, but denial is a bad choice.

[SFLcane]

Guys, just commenting on my observations. With developments today it just appears the euro has been correct all along.

That’s all

[NDG]

just an FYI shear is going to drop off fast over night.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

The structure right now isn't even due to that shear.
It's due to the fast mid level flow and dry air. HWRF just corrected itself . Euro is king

Not really, it showed zero development with TD 14 just yesterday at 12z.
Zero development before the Yucatan P on last night's 0z run.

[SFLcane]

HWRF corrected itself even without radar It’s was 974mb last run now it’s 1000mb.

[DestinHurricane]

We all need to chill. The most likely scenario right now is a cat 1 landfalling in south FL, just as NHC has it. Don't bet against the NHC. Chill with the model wars until its north of the antellies.

[jaxfladude]

Euro I beg your forgiveness....hope Bones is soon to make a final declaration.....

Edit: 2020 DO NOT MAKE ME EAT CROW LATER!! Thanks.

[ConvergenceZone]

Guys, just commenting on my observations. With developments today it just appears the euro has been correct all along.

That’s all

I’m starting to feel the same way. Yea I know, everyone wants something to track, heck I do too. It’s like a drug, but sometimes you have to take notice of trends when you start getting closer to “potential” landfall

[supercane4867]

3rd NHC discussion of Erika 2015

The dynamical guidance indicates that the future
environment of the tropical cyclone will be characterized by
marginal humidity and around 15 to 20 kt of vertical shear. This
should allow for only slow strengthening at best. The official
forecast is similar to the HWRF guidance during the first half of
the forecast period, and close to the model consensus near the end
of the period. Given the current state of the system and the
possibility of stronger shear, however, there is less than usual
confidence in the NHC intensity forecast.

3rd NHC discussion of TD13 from 11AM today

The environment consisting of light to moderate vertical wind shear
is expected to allow for gradual strengthening over the next few
days, and the NHC forecast calls for the system to become a tropical
storm later today or tonight. The upper-level wind pattern is
expected to remain favorable in the latter portion of the forecast
period, and if there is minimal land interaction, a faster rate of
strengthening is possible at that time. The NHC intensity forecast
now shows the system becoming a hurricane by 96 hours, but it is a
little lower than the consensus aids at days 4 and 5 due to
uncertainty in how much the system will interact with the Greater
Antilles.

Spot the difference.

[Cat5James]

We all need to chill. The most likely scenario right now is a cat 1 landfalling in south FL, just as NHC has it. Don't bet against the NHC. Chill with the model wars until its north of the antellies.

The comedy in all this is TD 13 was never supposed to be strengthening right now, ALL models showed it weak for at least 24 hours... and now we are back in the same scenerio where there is no clear COC and models do not know what to do with it.... saying "put a fork in it" or "write this one off" is just foolish while it still has 4 full days to travel under much better conditions.

[Cat5James]

You gotta love when people comment on the outcome of model runs before they are even fully initialized... looks like the HWRF hasnt written it off after all smh

[Hurricaneman]

Looks like the PV streamer this has been dealing with has started to lift north, the system is about to get into a favorable environment if you look at the CMISS map and it really could come together as it comes towards the Leeward Islands