ATL: LAURA - Models

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1261 Postby WxEp » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:13 pm

UKMET sticking with its track passing near Cuba continuing into the Gulf of Mexico. Staying pretty weak through the south Bahamas.

FORECAST POSITION AT T+ 48 : 18.0N 65.5W

VERIFYING TIME POSITION STRENGTH TENDENCY
-------------- -------- -------- --------
12UTC 22.08.2020 18.0N 65.5W WEAK
00UTC 23.08.2020 19.2N 68.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 23.08.2020 20.6N 72.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 24.08.2020 21.6N 76.6W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 24.08.2020 23.3N 80.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 25.08.2020 25.1N 83.7W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 25.08.2020 28.1N 86.0W WEAK LITTLE CHANGE
00UTC 26.08.2020 31.1N 87.0W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
12UTC 26.08.2020 32.6N 86.6W MODERATE LITTLE CHANGE
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1262 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:14 pm

12z HMON is much quicker than 06z.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1263 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:15 pm

2mb stronger, further south. Hr 60.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1264 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:18 pm

HWRF just a hair slower and SE but relatively unchanged since 06z.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1265 Postby St0rmTh0r » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:18 pm

Why is anyone taking the GFS seriously? Yesterday it showed absolutely nothing and has failed time and time again. Nobody should be taking this with serious
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1266 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:20 pm

Given the current state of TD 14, the one thing that I keep saying to give some stock to the HWRF is that since yesterday it has not been very aggressive with TD 14 for today and tomorrow, not to really getting better organized until tomorrow night as it tracks north of the Lesser Antilles.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1267 Postby DestinHurricane » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:20 pm

HWRF, HMON, and CMC have been the most consistent models. I wouldn't trust the GFS right now.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1268 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:22 pm

NDG wrote:Given the current state of TD 14, the one thing that I keep saying to give some stock to the HWRF is that since yesterday it has not been very aggressive with TD 14 for today and tomorrow, not to really getting better organized until tomorrow night as it tracks north of the Lesser Antilles.


Don't you mean TD 13?
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1269 Postby AutoPenalti » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:24 pm

HWRF weaker at hr 60. 5mb decrease compared to last run.
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Model Runs Cheat Sheet:
GFS (5:30 AM/PM, 11:30 AM/PM)
HWRF, GFDL, UKMET, NAVGEM (6:30-8:00 AM/PM, 12:30-2:00 AM/PM)
ECMWF (1:45 AM/PM)
TCVN is a weighted averaged
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1270 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:24 pm

HMON on approach to Andros, Hour 90

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1271 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:24 pm

HWRF 60hrs

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1272 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:28 pm

I know what everyone is going to say... It's the NAM. But it is one of the tools in the toolbox, so it is worth giving it a look.

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1273 Postby DestinHurricane » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:30 pm

HMON will miss S FL.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1274 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:30 pm

HMON looks to be headed towards Biscayne Bay...Not sure what you're seeing Destin???

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1275 Postby NDG » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:31 pm

Through 72 hrs HWRF is a little stronger and a little further south than previous 06z run.

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1276 Postby SFLcane » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:32 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:HMON will miss S FL.


Nope slams into SFL as a major hurricane.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1277 Postby eastcoastFL » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:32 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:HMON will miss S FL.


Nope

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1278 Postby SouthFLTropics » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:32 pm

DestinHurricane wrote:HMON will miss S FL.


This post didn't age well... LOL

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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1279 Postby DestinHurricane » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:32 pm

SouthFLTropics wrote:HMON looks to be headed towards Biscayne Bay...Not sure what you're seeing Destin???

https://i.imgur.com/aev5O8Q.png


Might scrape WPB/Jupiter area. I could also be hallucinating.

Need to take a break for a bit lol.
Last edited by DestinHurricane on Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:34 pm, edited 1 time in total.
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Re: ATL: THIRTEEN - Models

#1280 Postby ConvergenceZone » Thu Aug 20, 2020 12:32 pm

I’m going with 65 to 70 mph at landfall. I think the NHC will come down a bit on strength with a couple of models trending weaker
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