ATL: ETA - Models

[Spacecoast]

0z Track Guidance, and Intensity Guidance,....

*probaby should have a Best If Used By: 06z Expiration date.

FWIW, AVNI (GFS Op - red) pushes into MIA @ 72 hrs+. Should make TVCN & OFCL also move N (closer to Miami) later tonight.


0Z Intensity guidance shows Basically Tropical Storm intensities,
except for COTI (NRL-COAMPS) which shows CAT2, due to lack of land interaction of it's track:

[AutoPenalti]

0z Track Guidance, and Intensity Guidance,....

*probaby should have a Best If Used By: 06z Expiration date.

FWIW, AVNI (GFS Op - red) pushes into MIA @ 72 hrs+. Should make TVCN & OFCL also move N (closer to Miami) later tonight.
https://i.ibb.co/c67scQV/Capture114j.jpg

0Z Intensity guidance shows Basically Tropical Storm intensities,
except for COTI (NRL-COAMPS) which shows CAT2, due to lack of land interaction of it's track:
https://i.ibb.co/jfdbK8G/Capture114k.jpg

Never mind then, I won’t call off work.

[SFLcane]

0z Track Guidance, and Intensity Guidance,....

*probaby should have a Best If Used By: 06z Expiration date.

FWIW, AVNI (GFS Op - red) pushes into MIA @ 72 hrs+. Should make TVCN & OFCL also move N (closer to Miami) later tonight.
https://i.ibb.co/c67scQV/Capture114j.jpg

0Z Intensity guidance shows Basically Tropical Storm intensities,
except for COTI (NRL-COAMPS) which shows CAT2, due to lack of land interaction of it's track:
https://i.ibb.co/jfdbK8G/Capture114k.jpg

Never mind then, I won’t call off work.

Even let’s say this hits SFL as a strong TS that surely isn’t no joke folks 60/70 mph gusts is all you need for power outages and interruptions.

[lhpfish]

Irene 99 comes to mind...followed a similar path on arrival

[Blown Away]

Updated some 00z guidance...SFL you may have a problem

https://i.postimg.cc/RCpB6JXn/828-B1-C50-89-C9-4-CA0-BE88-C5-E78-AA863-C8.jpg

I assume the 00z early TVCN doesn’t factor the 18z EURO and uses 12z run??

[Spacecoast]

Updated some 00z guidance...SFL you may have a problem

https://i.postimg.cc/RCpB6JXn/828-B1-C50-89-C9-4-CA0-BE88-C5-E78-AA863-C8.jpg

I assume the 00z early TVCN doesn’t factor the 18z EURO and uses 12z run??

Yes, you are correct. TVCN uses 6hr interpolated previous cycles (EMXI, AVNI,HWFI, CTCI).

[Blown Away]

Are there any 18z models that don’t landfall between Ft Lauderdale and Keys?

[ronjon]

Are there any 18z models that don’t landfall between Ft Lauderdale and Keys?

My count zero. GFS, Euro, NAVGEM, ICON, HWRF, HMON all landfall between the keys and SE FL. And all somewhere between Sunday morning and Sunday night.

[Spacecoast]

Are there any 18z models that don’t landfall between Ft Lauderdale and Keys?

I believe all the 18z deterministic are between Keys and FTL. The latest CMC (12z), is still south, and the NRL- COAMPS possibly still south, but consensus are SFL hits, atm.
I expect the TVCN, and OFCL to fall into this category on their next update, and possibly a slight intensity bump to go along with the more easterly turn.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Why is it that every time we get a storm in our area it wants to arrive during the night time, can't stand it Lol.

[wzrgirl1]

Why is it that every time we get a storm in our area it wants to arrive during the night time, can't stand it Lol.

I know I was just saying the same thing.

[wzrgirl1]

When do you feel south Florida will be under some sort of watches/warnings if at all?

[Blown Away]

When do you feel south Florida will be under some sort of watches/warnings if at all?

Friday night or Saturday morning TS watch for Miami to Keys... JMHO

[StormTracker]

Why is it that every time we get a storm in our area it wants to arrive during the night time, can't stand it Lol.

I was thinking the same thing...

[TheStormExpert]

When do you feel south Florida will be under some sort of watches/warnings if at all?

Friday night or Saturday morning TS watch for Miami to Keys... JMHO

Palm Beach County?

[TheStormExpert]

Why is it that every time we get a storm in our area it wants to arrive during the night time, can't stand it Lol.

I was thinking the same thing...

Brings me back to Frances and Jeanne.

[AdamFirst]

When do you feel south Florida will be under some sort of watches/warnings if at all?

If forecasts remain consistent, watches will probably go up tomorrow evening. As Mike Watkins pointed out in his video, however, conditions are going to be poor for preparations due to the heavy rains and gusty winds expected to spread out over South Florida ahead of the storm. I, personally, don't anticipate anything more than a minimal hurricane, but this season has had too many surprises, so you never know.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Guess I will be having fun tomorrow evening closing shutters and tying down the boat and other stuff in Key Largo tomorrow night.

[Frank2]

AdamFirst you forgot this:

The following post is NOT an official forecast and should not be used as such. It is just the opinion of the poster and may or may not be backed by sound meteorological data. It is NOT endorsed by storm2k.org.

You're making way too much of this system which right now per the NHC does not have an identifiable center.

On the WV loop, strong shear is evident from Cuba northward across the Florida Straits and that and the ULL forecast to form will make a big difference in what type of weather we will receive. No doubt the models will adjust their output during the day tomorrow and Saturday and that will help to define the system from that point on - if it forms.

[Miami Storm Tracker]

Frank2
There are 2 videos out by respected Met's stating because of the angle the two systems will interact the sheer issue will not be the same as would normally be.