ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Dean4Storms]

Its core is really elongated SW to NE which is keeping it from tightening from the convection. Don’t see much happening strength wise unless that changes.

[Dean4Storms]

If that latest fix by Recon is right this will be onshore in the morning, it has increased forward speed and it has moved NNE.

[Steve]

If that latest fix by Recon is right this will be onshore in the morning, it has increased forward speed and it has moved NNE.

Was it? I was going to make tomorrow the big party day (continuation), but if I have to hit a cup of coffee or two, I can probably stay up for the action. Getting a little more real here but mostly drizzle/moderate rain and the occasional gust into the higher teens or twenties.

[NDG]

If that latest fix by Recon is right this will be onshore in the morning, it has increased forward speed and it has moved NNE.

That's just the LLC doing its cyclonic loop that it has been doing ever since it was over the Yucatan, broad circulation as a broad still moving north at 10 knots.

[tropicwatch]

If that latest fix by Recon is right this will be onshore in the morning, it has increased forward speed and it has moved NNE.

That's just the LLC doing its cyclonic loop that it has been doing ever since it was over the Yucatan, broad circulation as a broad still moving north at 10 knots.

HH going back to the center if it is further east of its last position, it might not be a cyclonic loop.

[Aric Dunn]

It is definitely making a comeback.. but it will take more convection than this to tighten the broad pressure field. and again it will take probably a pressure of 975mb ish to reach hurricane sterngth given the size.

[tropicwatch]

If that latest fix by Recon is right this will be onshore in the morning, it has increased forward speed and it has moved NNE.

That's just the LLC doing its cyclonic loop that it has been doing ever since it was over the Yucatan, broad circulation as a broad still moving north at 10 knots.

HH going back to the center if it is further east of its last position, it might not be a cyclonic loop.

Still moving north.

[NDG]

If that latest fix by Recon is right this will be onshore in the morning, it has increased forward speed and it has moved NNE.

That's just the LLC doing its cyclonic loop that it has been doing ever since it was over the Yucatan, broad circulation as a broad still moving north at 10 knots.

HH going back to the center if it is further east of its last position, it might not be a cyclonic loop.

What? Is just a little further north not east.

[NDG]

From one of the tornadic cells that came through Orlando earlier in the afternoon, too bad I had driven out of town at that time.

 https://twitter.com/joeyhawkeye/status/1269417294263975939

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

Banding is beginning to improve as we approach diurnal minimum - just a matter of wrapping relatively deep convection around an open center if this thing still wants to make a shot at anything beyond 50 knots. Still has about 12 hours before the large center begins coming ashore.

Even it does reach hurricane intensity, the most notable US impact may still be the tornado that passed through downtown Orlando earlier today.

[Aric Dunn]

ok what is the deal with all these weird "square" shaped convective patterns this year.. it is sooo weird.. right angles in nature are rare.. especially in a fluid .. lol

[JabNOLA]

Eric. It’s 2020. That’s all.

[Aric Dunn]

Eric. It’s 2020. That’s all.

yeah.. our Myan calcuation was wrong.. not 2012.. actual.. 2020 lol

[Hurricane_Apu]

The east wobble might be the center getting pulled into that blowup of convection to the north... I wonder if that little swirl just south of it is the CoC?

[Aric Dunn]

The east wobble might be the center getting pulled into that blowup of convection to the north... I wonder if that little swirl just south of it is the CoC?

yeah the center is getting pulled all over where the convection builds. but the average center is roughly the same..

though the recent burst on the SE side is up through the column could be the start of some deepening.

[BRweather]

Convection is currently wrapping all the way around the east side at a rapid pace. Curious to see the impacts of this. Dry air is filtering out and this looks to be quickly occluding, isolating itself from the mass of thunderstorms over Florida.

[hurricanehunter69]

The NHC has done remarkably well and nailed their forecast on Cristobal thus far. The 4 am advisory should read " Cristobal a little stronger and a little better organized". Question is...Can this storm finally throw a good curve ball and get a swing and a miss at the 10 am advisory, or 12pm intermediate one right at landfall? It is not at all uncommon for storms in similar set ups to this one to finally achieve RI right at landfall.

[beoumont]

The NHC has done remarkably well and nailed their forecast on Cristobal thus far. The 4 am advisory should read " Cristobal a little stronger and a little better organized". Question is...Can this storm finally throw a good curve ball and get a swing and a miss at the 10 am advisory, or 12pm intermediate one right at landfall? It is not at all uncommon for storms in similar set ups to this one to finally achieve RI right at landfall.

Now, all it has to do is pass directly over a giant oil platform fire; then the chances for RI might get a little bit greater.

[Sciencerocks]

[Steve]

It’s picking up a little bit here, but not much so far. I’ve only seen one transformer blow (will be more) and maybe a half inch of rain or so though Doppler is missing it because so much of it is low level. Hard to say who will be under the gun today. Another line fired off toward Tampa but can it hold together. A line is setting up in the big bend and then possibly the gulf coast depending on whether the circulation is going to produce rain. That’s the key for us in southeast LA and SW MS. If it does who does it bloom over as the circulation is getting close. Today’s the day.