ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Aric Dunn]

very close and farther west than any model

[Vdogg]

That was interesting. Main area of convection took a big jog NW.

[TallyTracker]

At this point my best guess for a track would be to close my eyes and draw a line.

Which is exactly what I did:

https://i.imgur.com/mT85lKg.png

I don’t like that line! It goes right over my house after giving the system 2 days over hot bath water. That is a very reasonable track though. I think your line will be more correct than most of the models thus far! lol

[ScottNAtlanta]

The winds are bending around to be from the NE now...just gotta find some west winds...which is hard in the Caribbean. The pressure went down...then up, and now its lowering again.

[SFLcane]

Only a matter of time now!

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1288 ... 41632?s=21

[SFLcane]

Definitely better organized

[BobHarlem]

Staring at this long radar loop http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?537
I think the "center" based on radar is approx 15.3N 63.4W. But this doesn't mean much other than what it appears like on the radar.

[wx98]

Recon needs to fly back through that feature at 15.7N, 63.7W. The S to E, then NE turn appears to be the north side of a LLC. Not sure if it is entirely closed off however...

[Aric Dunn]

Strong ridging moving a long with the system still center straight north of it..

no real WNW motion anytime soon ..

[ScottNAtlanta]

Staring at this long radar loop http://flhurricane.com/imageanimator.php?537
I think the "center" based on radar is approx 15.3N 63.4W. But this doesn't mean much other than what it appears like on the radar.

The radar shot seems to indicate several centers that come and go

[Ivanhater]

WARNING

I had to remove several posts of back and forth nonsense. Stick to the system itself. Some of you know better.

[hurricaneCW]

Clear rotation seen on radar/visible, this will get a name soon.

[Vdogg]

Only a matter of time now!

https://twitter.com/pppapin/status/1288 ... 41632?s=21

That's pretty close to a NW motion on radar, matches up with the jog North in convection. I'd say it's made it's turn.

[NDG]

Just going to point out all the pockets of extremely high OHC in the Caribbean. If it follows the NHC track, it’ll go through the one off the southern PR coast. If it continues to go W/WNW, it could instead pass through the one south of Hispaniola and Cuba.
https://rammb-data.cira.colostate.edu/tc_realtime/products/storms/2020al09/ohcnfcst/2020al09_ohcnfcst_202007290600.gif

SSTs, which are very high, are more important that OHC which is based on the depth of the warm waters, with fast moving weak systems. Don in the central Pacific became a Cat 4 hurricane over very low OHC with SSTs near 27 C. If it would had stalled it would had then weakened because cooler SSTs would had been upwelled really fast.

[wxman57]

Looks like it's still a wave. Note that all models (& ensemble members) which take it to the western FL Peninsula or Gulf dissipate it there. Models that keep it east of Florida have it as a TS/H. I think it's going west.

[HurricaneFrances04]

 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1288475394535038976




 https://twitter.com/TropicalTidbits/status/1288477189009285120

[AutoPenalti]

If it’s moved NW is it going to clear the Islands? or does it matter at this given it’s disorganized.

[Jr0d]

I don't see the 'center' going north of Hispanola, or even hitting the island. It will be interesting to see what happens when it interacts with the island.

As always timing is crucial. It's not going to start a more northward track until it slows down. That should happen soon.

[tropicwatch]

HH climbing, think they are headed home.

[ScottNAtlanta]

This is the track I am thinking