ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[Hd444]

Irene 2.0 ?

[gatorcane]

TVCN skimming SE Florida. That's quite a bit east of the red line (NHC) track:

https://i.postimg.cc/MTdwHnbS/storm-09.gif

Also note that is not the 12Z Euro on this map so the TVCN is likely just east of Florida.

[aspen]

Irene 2.0 ?

Not yet; this might plow right through Florida or go into the Gulf. The models have been back and forth for the last few days and we don’t even have a good idea where the center of the storm is.

[Aric Dunn]

my issue with the models is they start it moving wnw to almost NW right now.. and it refuses to do so.
to make it north of Hispaniola it would have to head NW to Borderline wnw ( unless it reformed and again no sign of that).. if we assuming the center is that convection south of PR
with that stout ridge to the north that just does not seem reasonable

[ScottNAtlanta]

my issue with the models is they start it moving wnw to almost NW right now.. and it refuses to do so.
to make it north of Hispaniola it would have to head NW to Borderline wnw ( unless it reformed and again no sign of that).. if we assuming the center is that convection south of PR
with that stout ridge to the north that just does not seem reasonable

I agree. I have seen no inclination for this to make that kind of turn. I also think models are initializing this too far north. I think the center is forming near 15N 65W

[jlauderdal]

You guys do realize that nogaps has been showing this track for days. Lol

XTRP is even right sometimes....nhc has been left of guidance, will see if they stick with that. The have been really good with the track even at 5 days the last several years, this one is complex but I bet they are within 100 miles of the their 5 day point after tonights 11 pm.

[AxaltaRacing24]

my issue with the models is they start it moving wnw to almost NW right now.. and it refuses to do so.
to make it north of Hispaniola it would have to head NW to Borderline wnw ( unless it reformed and again no sign of that).. if we assuming the center is that convection south of PR
with that stout ridge to the north that just does not seem reasonable

the models have wanted to pull this storm north so badly during its entire existence, and it refuses to do so.

[NDG]

Just about all of the Euro ensemble members have the system going north of Cuba, in good agreement with its operation run.

[TheStormExpert]

TVCN skimming SE Florida. That's quite a bit east of the red line (NHC) track:

https://i.postimg.cc/MTdwHnbS/storm-09.gif

What happened to the green spaghetti plots that were under CLP5?

[JPmia]

Irene 2.0 ?

more like Cleo 1964.

[caneseddy]

Irene 2.0 ?

more like Cleo 1964.

[caneseddy]

NAM (I know, I know) takes it through Haiti and south coast of Cuba and reemerges in the Gulf.

[gatorcane]

18Z ICON hour 63 is 5MB stronger than the 12Z run and shows a 997MB storm near Andros moving slowly NW.

[ronjon]

Models coming into rough consensus of a track somewhere off the east coast. How many times has this happened in the past? Too many times to count. For whatever reason, storms more times than not recurve east of the peninsula. Things can change of course in the next few days. But if it does stay off the east coast of FL, seems like the GFS-para would have done the best with sniffing this out early. Time will tell...

[NDG]

12z EPS is trending towards a deeper trough over the MS rive valley to erode the western end of the narrow ridge to its north when it gets close to FL, but at the same time it keeps trending towards the Bermuda ridge expanding northward to block PTC9 from going OTS.

[gatorcane]

18Z ICON hour 63 is 5MB stronger than the 12Z run and shows a 997MB storm near Andros moving slowly NW.

[pgoss11]

12z EPS is trending towards a deeper trough over the MS rive valley to erode the western end of the narrow ridge to its north when it gets close to FL, but at the same time it keeps trending towards the Bermuda ridge expanding northward to block PTC9 from going OTS.

https://i.imgur.com/o4CcoR1.gif
https://i.imgur.com/7JrvTnW.gif

Meaning ?? It’s gets trapped from going out to sea and forced inland somewhere along the eastern seaboard?

[HurricaneFrances04]

12z EPS is trending towards a deeper trough over the MS rive valley to erode the western end of the narrow ridge to its north when it gets close to FL, but at the same time it keeps trending towards the Bermuda ridge expanding northward to block PTC9 from going OTS.

https://i.imgur.com/o4CcoR1.gif
https://i.imgur.com/7JrvTnW.gif

Didn't the GFS show something similar to that a few days ago when it showed a track into NE Florida.

[AutoPenalti]

12z EPS is trending towards a deeper trough over the MS rive valley to erode the western end of the narrow ridge to its north when it gets close to FL, but at the same time it keeps trending towards the Bermuda ridge expanding northward to block PTC9 from going OTS.

https://i.imgur.com/o4CcoR1.gif
https://i.imgur.com/7JrvTnW.gif

Wowzers, that trough is unusual for August.

[gatorcane]

ICON shows some good intensification now as it goes over the Gulfstream heading into SE Florida. Between 69 and 81 hours it drops 7MB. This is a change from prior runs which showed weakening on the approach: