ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[otowntiger]

just an FYI shear is going to drop off fast over night.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

but it may be too late. There is just about nothing left of it right now.

[Hammy]

We all need to chill. The most likely scenario right now is a cat 1 landfalling in south FL, just as NHC has it. Don't bet against the NHC. Chill with the model wars until its north of the antellies.

They outright said in their discussions that they're splitting the difference between the models that strengthen, and the ones that dissipate--and that their confidence is low.

[tolakram]

This thread is a disaster. I am really upset and disappointed that a lot of you can't seem to hold back on personal comments and petty griping. You know who you are. Keep it up and you won't get a warning before losing posting privileges. Stay on topic and do not criticize other posters. PERIOD.

[ConvergenceZone]

You gotta love when people comment on the outcome of model runs before they are even fully initialized... looks like the HWRF hasnt written it off after all smh

It’s all about the lower intensity trend of almost all the models. The trend is your friend, and they are trying to tell us something.

From my experience, usually the NHC lowers their intensity once the forecast models noticeably lower theirs.

[Fego]

Tropical Depression #Thirteen Advisory 4A: Initial Reports From a Noaa Hurricane Hunter Aircraft Indicate That the Depression is Not Well Organized. http://go.usa.gov/W3H

[Hurricaneman]

just an FYI shear is going to drop off fast over night.

http://tropic.ssec.wisc.edu/real-time/atlantic/winds/wg8shr.GIF

but it may be too late. There is just about nothing left of it right now.

Looks as though that’s about to change, the new convective burst seems to be moving towards the potential center

[ConvergenceZone]

This thread is a disaster. I am really upset and disappointed that a lot of you can't seem to hold back on personal comments and petty griping. You know who you are. Keep it up and you won't get a warning before losing posting privileges. Stay on topic and do not criticize other posters. PERIOD.

I agree. Healthy debates are fine, just don’t criticize people and launch personal attacks. Good point

[psyclone]

Any disturbance...even less than a depression...is like a bottle rocket flying over kerosene. it only needs to survive a hostile environment until it can cast sparks in a more favorable area. until it's totally gone...i will keep watching it, especially since it is in a position to potentially impact my region down the line..

[cheezyWXguy]

Guys, just commenting on my observations. With developments today it just appears the euro has been correct all along.

That’s all

The problem is, even if this dissipates you’re wrong. Aside from that the euro did not develop anything to begin with, and had to be force-fed a closed low (see TheProfessor’s post earlier today), your methodology is off. It would basically be the equivalent of claiming merit in getting a 100 on a test when you copied all the answers off your friend. Outcome is correct, but how did you get there?

Over the long term, the euro’s verification is pretty good, but along the way it’s had a minority of major misses. This year it’s been a majority with TCs, and this could be yet another. Or it could not be. We have to acknowledge uncertainty, because certain outcomes, even if less likely, can have significant impacts. Treating the euro like its Jesus himself may find you a light switch in the dark more times than chance, but definitely pales in comparison to comprehensive analysis and use of all the tools available. This is why the NHC has a better track record than the euro.

[Cat5James]

You gotta love when people comment on the outcome of model runs before they are even fully initialized... looks like the HWRF hasnt written it off after all smh

It’s all about the lower intensity trend of almost all the models. The trend is your friend, and they are trying to tell us something.

From my experience, usually the NHC lowers their intensity once the forecast models noticeably lower theirs.

This is true... however there are still 4 days for trends to go in the opposite direction... nothing is set in stone yet, which is the point I was making. It is far too early to just completely write this system off and say it will be nothing but an "open wave"

[eastcoastFL]

:spam:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1296581522733113344

Came here to post this. Euro might actually be right on it. Doesn't mean it won't ever develop...but I don't think most of us expected this to develop anytime soon anyway. Well except the people who were saying this was another Andrew lol

Where did Andrew develop into a hurricane?

[Emmett_Brown]

It will be very interesting to see how these storms interact... I've been away from the board the last couple of days so sorry if this has already been discussed, but the fact that 2 storms are forming and headed toward such a small area will magnify model errors... even if the models seem to be tightly clustered at the present time. Track and intensity errors could be larger than normal.

[FixySLN]

:spam:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1296581522733113344

Came here to post this. Euro might actually be right on it. Doesn't mean it won't ever develop...but I don't think most of us expected this to develop anytime soon anyway. Well except the people who were saying this was another Andrew lol

Where did Andrew develop into a hurricane?

North of DR almost perfectly in line with Miami.

[CyclonicFury]

The next recon update should tell us whether west winds exist or not.

[eastcoastFL]

HWRF corrected itself even without radar It’s was 974mb last run now it’s 1000mb.

It’s 974mb in the keys this run.

[Hammy]

:spam:

https://twitter.com/webberweather/status/1296581522733113344

Came here to post this. Euro might actually be right on it. Doesn't mean it won't ever develop...but I don't think most of us expected this to develop anytime soon anyway. Well except the people who were saying this was another Andrew lol

Where did Andrew develop into a hurricane?

Well to the northeast of anywhere TD13 is going.



edit: FixySLN beat me to it

[eastcoastFL]

Guys, just commenting on my observations. With developments today it just appears the euro has been correct all along.

That’s all

I’m starting to feel the same way. Yea I know, everyone wants something to track, heck I do too. It’s like a drug, but sometimes you have to take notice of trends when you start getting closer to “potential” landfall

I’m just curious what trends you’re referring to? We are still well before the time when anything has any significant development. Were you expecting a strong TS today?

[DestinHurricane]

Huge shift west 18Z HWRF. Looks like it's headed for Panama City area this run. What would cause such a dramatic shift west? Is it sensing a stronger ridge? We haven't had any upper atmosphere NOAA planes flying to suggest that.

[eastcoastFL]

Did the people writing this off expect to see this TD bomb out today into a strong TS or cane? If so, why? Literally nothing has forecast that to happen so far.

[Aric Dunn]

Huge shift west 18Z HWRF. Looks like it's headed for Panama City area this run. What would cause such a dramatic shift west? Is it sensing a stronger ridge? We haven't had any upper atmosphere NOAA planes flying to suggest that.

yeah the ridging is like a tank this run.. pushes td14 towards central texas and keeps td 13 way south..