ATL: CRISTOBAL - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[GCANE]

Break away arm of the feeder band is heading for south Florida.
Significant tornado potential along the coast from Tampa bay south.
Should hit the coast in about an hour.

[Frank P]

Pretty quite on the beach in Biloxi, tide looks about a foot above normal.. noticed on the recent sat view a rather large feeder band starting to develop on the southern half of the storm.. If this holds together it could drop copious amounts of rain for any land areas that would be affected by it... Radar shows a decent feeder band approaching the MS coastal areas.. if I see 50 mph gusts I would be surprised.. would imagine 40 mpg sustained could be expected... it was a good dry run though for what could be a busy season.

[GCANE]

Looks like that breakaway arm is going to intensify just before it makes landfall along the Gulf coast of FL.

[Steve]

Not a lot of cold cloud tops at the moment but you can see the organization. I’d like a visible but we are a couple hours away.
https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[GCANE]

AF306 about to depart from Biloxi, a short ride.

[sittingduck]

Looks like that breakaway arm is going to intensify just before it makes landfall along the Gulf coast of FL.

Had a tornado warning at about 1am here in Venice. Storm seemed to pass by quickly. Haven’t heard anything about damage

[Dean4Storms]

This storm looks sad, don’t see any strengthening happening.

[Steve]

This storm looks sad, don’t see any strengthening happening.

It’s improving but it took too long. Hoping for some nice wrap in stuff today. Looks like a small tornado threat your way. Stay safe man

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov//GOES1 ... 0x1000.gif

[GCANE]

Rapidly moving cell, east to west, is intensifying just south of the Miss Delta.
Core is sitting in 3000 CAPE air.

[GCANE]

Looks like the threat for tornadoes along the FL coast has dropped.
However, a strong cell is approaching Tampa Bay within the hour.

[HurryKane]

The NHC has done remarkably well and nailed their forecast on Cristobal thus far. The 4 am advisory should read " Cristobal a little stronger and a little better organized". Question is...Can this storm finally throw a good curve ball and get a swing and a miss at the 10 am advisory, or 12pm intermediate one right at landfall? It is not at all uncommon for storms in similar set ups to this one to finally achieve RI right at landfall.

Now, all it has to do is pass directly over a giant oil platform fire; then the chances for RI might get a little bit greater.

Lawd, don’t give 2020 any more great ideas.

[wxman57]

Looped through all the Gulf obs overnight and didn't see any reports of 35kt winds. If it has any 35kt winds, then they're over a very tiny area. Squalls are pitiful.

[Steve]

^^

Experience has been decent. So far I’d give it a B if it was a depression and a C for TS. We’ve had a lot of close by hurricanes with less effect. We have probably our best band coming yet (edit) within the hour. So we’ll see if it ends up being an exciting afternoon or not. If there isn’t much weather with the center, then ‘inner fringe’ locations will be the best.

[CYCLONE MIKE]

I don’t know Steve. I’m not ready to call it yet, giving it another 6 hrs or so to see what happens by lunchtime. Not looking promising though. Mid and low level dry air is just relentless and rain is drying up before even making it over here.

[wxman57]

I don't see any SFMR data with the current recon mission. Winds at FL will not be able to make it down to the surface with no significant convection. Surface winds may be half the FL winds.

[Dean4Storms]

I haven’t seen anything to support a 50mph sustained wind from any rig or buoy, this is the closest I have seen.........41kts sustained a few hours ago.

http://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page.php?station=pstl1

[Steve]

I don’t know Steve. I’m not ready to call it yet, giving it another 6 hrs or so to see what happens by lunchtime. Not looking promising though. Mid and low level dry air is just relentless and rain is drying up before even making it over here.

Yeah not much up there. We haven’t gotten any oranges yet, so I’m hoping this is going to be decent. A couple of marine warnings popped so possibly some action (see radar on home page below).
https://www.weather.gov/lix/

[NXStumpy_Robothing]

The storm seemed to be getting its act together a little after midnight, but the past 5 hours have just seen all convection die down significantly. There's still some decent organization and a brief run of strengthening cannot be ruled out, but it is in a much worse position in terms of convection than I would've guessed 6 hours ago. Just a typical June mess.

[wxman57]

Strongest winds offshore are south of the mid LA coast where the buoy has been reporting 25-30 kt winds - right below where the plane found 35-40 kt winds at FL. You'll have a hard time convincing me this is a 45 kt TS (or even a 35kt TS).

[NDG]

Strongest winds offshore are south of the mid LA coast where the buoy has been reporting 25-30 kt winds - right below where the plane found 35-40 kt winds at FL. You'll have a hard time convincing me this is a 45 kt TS (or even a 35kt TS).

http://wxman57.com/images/Cristobal5.JPG

Pilot Station off of SW Pass at the mouth of the MS River is reporting TS force winds 47/60 mph but their anemometer is 66' above the ground.
Nola Lakefront airport is reported 38 mph gusting to 41 mph
Strongest winds remain well away from the CoC.

https://www.ndbc.noaa.gov/station_page. ... tion=pstl1