ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[caneseddy]

ICON has landfall as a Cat 1 around Palm Beach County

[SoupBone]

12z EPS is trending towards a deeper trough over the MS rive valley to erode the western end of the narrow ridge to its north when it gets close to FL, but at the same time it keeps trending towards the Bermuda ridge expanding northward to block PTC9 from going OTS.

https://i.imgur.com/o4CcoR1.gif
https://i.imgur.com/7JrvTnW.gif

Wowzers, that trough is unusual for August.

It definitely is, but this season also started early. Maybe it was an indicator that other seasonal meteorology things are also coming in slightly earlier this year. Wouldn't be the first time.

[gatorcane]

ICON has landfall as a Cat 1 around Palm Beach County

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2020072918/icon_mslp_pcpn_watl_26.png

Between 69 and 81 hours it drops 7MB as it moves over the Gulf stream. This is a change from prior runs which showed weakening on the approach.

[NDG]

Models coming into rough consensus of a track somewhere off the east coast. How many times has this happened in the past? Too many times to count. For whatever reason, storms more times than not recurve east of the peninsula. Things can change of course in the next few days. But if it does stay off the east coast of FL, seems like the GFS-para would have done the best with sniffing this out early. Time will tell...

GFS-Para has been trending to the left, will probably continue to do so, closer to the Euro and rest of the models.

[DestinHurricane]

What is making some of these models very bullish? Seems like they are overestimating the situation.

[gatorcane]

ICON down to 987MB just east of Jax at 102 hours. Looks like it briefly weakened while it skimmed the FL east coast.

[caneseddy]

12z EPS is trending towards a deeper trough over the MS rive valley to erode the western end of the narrow ridge to its north when it gets close to FL, but at the same time it keeps trending towards the Bermuda ridge expanding northward to block PTC9 from going OTS.

https://i.imgur.com/o4CcoR1.gif
https://i.imgur.com/7JrvTnW.gif

Wowzers, that trough is unusual for August.

It has happened in the past with Charley in 2004, which is why it took that hard right into Port Charlotte/Punta Gorda

[ColdMiser123]

Looks like a South Carolina landfall after grazing east Florida on the ICON as a hurricane. Quite a change from previous runs as others have already noted.

[gatorcane]

18Z ICON with second landfall in SC at 982MB. BIG change from previous ICON run which kept this weak.

[Evil Jeremy]

What is making some of these models very bullish? Seems like they are overestimating the situation.

Clearly they didn't hear you declaring the storm cancelled this morning.

That, or perhaps the Bahamas are ripe with hot waters. NHC noted in their 5pm discussion that "some of the global models are now showing a track farther
away from eastern Cuba and east of Florida, and if that occurs the
NHC intensity forecast could be somewhat conservative"

[NDG]

12z EPS is trending towards a deeper trough over the MS rive valley to erode the western end of the narrow ridge to its north when it gets close to FL, but at the same time it keeps trending towards the Bermuda ridge expanding northward to block PTC9 from going OTS.

https://i.imgur.com/o4CcoR1.gif
https://i.imgur.com/7JrvTnW.gif

Wowzers, that trough is unusual for August.

Don't forget about the unusual deep trough that pulled Charely out of the Caribbean in mid August 2004, it was deeper than this one coming down this weekend.
I lived in Nola back then, I remember lows in the 60s for a couple mornings when that trough came down.

[SoupBone]

12z EPS is trending towards a deeper trough over the MS rive valley to erode the western end of the narrow ridge to its north when it gets close to FL, but at the same time it keeps trending towards the Bermuda ridge expanding northward to block PTC9 from going OTS.

https://i.imgur.com/o4CcoR1.gif
https://i.imgur.com/7JrvTnW.gif

Wowzers, that trough is unusual for August.

Don't forget about the unusual deep trough that pulled Charely out of the Caribbean in mid August 2004, it was deeper than this one coming down this weekend.
I lived in Nola back then, I remember lows in the 60s for a couple mornings when that trough came down.
https://i.imgur.com/A1h9Pic.gif

I recall one from late July 2014 that brought some really nice, cool weather for 3-4 days. It was unreal, felt like Fall for those few days. It's not like the Earth knows it's only July.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS again forms the circulation just north of the DR at 24 hours.

[jlauderdal]

12z EPS is trending towards a deeper trough over the MS rive valley to erode the western end of the narrow ridge to its north when it gets close to FL, but at the same time it keeps trending towards the Bermuda ridge expanding northward to block PTC9 from going OTS.

https://i.imgur.com/o4CcoR1.gif
https://i.imgur.com/7JrvTnW.gif

Meaning ?? It’s gets trapped from going out to sea and forced inland somewhere along the eastern seaboard?

Yes, hurricanes dont plow through ridges, if strong enough they nudge the ridge but they cant bust through it like a dam breaking

[jlauderdal]

ICON has landfall as a Cat 1 around Palm Beach County

https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysis/models/icon/2020072918/icon_mslp_pcpn_watl_26.png

Between 69 and 81 hours it drops 7MB as it moves over the Gulf stream. This is a change from prior runs which showed weakening on the approach.

Yep, what happened to the shear and dry air on approach?

[WeatherEmperor]

GFS is a hair further north than before. Perhaps it will turn north further east away from FL??




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[DestinHurricane]

I don't think the models mean anything until we have a center. Looks like the center will be further south than the models are initializing.

[Evil Jeremy]

18z GFS is a solid chunk NE of the 12z run through 66 hours. Staying well off the Florida east coast.

[WeatherEmperor]

GFS shifts way east because it depicts a stronger storm




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[ColdMiser123]

I'm wondering if in this case Hispaniola may actually aid to form a circulation just north of there, since this is a pretty unique situation given the fast low level flow and a large wave envelope. If there is still an open wave tomorrow morning, the northern side with all the shear vorticity present there may attempt to consolidate and form a center of circulation, if winds to just to the south slow down just enough because of land interaction with Hispaniola.