ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[gatorcane]

Much stronger on the 18Z GFS as it heads north. Looks like an escape path to miss the US completely. Heading NNE at 78 hours down to 995MB and strengthening:

[Blown Away]

18z GFS is has a very sharp right turn after moving out of Bahamas...

[gatorcane]

GFS continues to intensify as it heads towards possibly the outer banks of NC. BIG change from the GFS. At 96 hours it is down to 987MB. I think this is the strongest run yet for the GFS.

[TheDreamTraveler]

12z EPS is trending towards a deeper trough over the MS rive valley to erode the western end of the narrow ridge to its north when it gets close to FL, but at the same time it keeps trending towards the Bermuda ridge expanding northward to block PTC9 from going OTS.

https://i.imgur.com/o4CcoR1.gif
https://i.imgur.com/7JrvTnW.gif

The ridges have been insane this year. We already saw this with tropical storm fay in early july taking that absurdly weird path straight up the mid atlantic coast and into NJ/NY with no recurve. Normally the homebrew systems off the coast get pushed out to sea once they form. Doesn't surprise me if Isaias goes straight up the coast with how the ridging looks on the models.

[DestinHurricane]

GFS continues to intensify as it heads towards possibly the outer banks of NC. BIG change from the GFS. At 96 hours it is down to 987MB. I think this is the strongest run yet for the GFS.

For this to verify it would have to be many miles north of where it is now. The model initializes the storm too far north and because of that it strengthens it and keeps it off the FL coast.

[gatorcane]

18Z GFS has the storm threading the needle between the trough and the ridge, looks to just miss the outer banks. Amazing how these storms can just follow the coast like that but not actually landfall. We have seen this time and time again. That trough looks like something you would see in the fall.

[HurricaneFrances04]

GFS continues to intensify as it heads towards possibly the outer banks of NC. BIG change from the GFS. At 96 hours it is down to 987MB. I think this is the strongest run yet for the GFS.

For this to verify it would have to be many miles north of where it is now. The model initializes the storm too far north and because of that it strengthens it and keeps it off the FL coast.

It looks like it has the northern vortex becoming dominant.

[CyclonicFury]

The trend today has, interestingly, been stronger in the long range.

[gatorcane]

Another look at that anomalously deep trough over the CONUS. Looks how far east it has shoved the Bermuda High. Is it October?!?

[northjaxpro]

***CAUTION****

1. GFS is overdoing the trough, which is notorious for doing quite often

2. Remember, we still do not have a centralized center officially initialized YET. So, until that happens and it is entered into the data, really the models are like throwing darts on a board at this time.

Just my thoughts...

[DestinHurricane]

***CAUTION****

1. GFS iis overdoing the trough, which is notorious for doing quite often

Edit- you fixed it

[AutoPenalti]

***CAUTION****

1. GFS is overdoing the trough, which is notorious for doing quite often

2. Remember, we still do not have a centralized center officially initialized YET. So, until that happens and it is entered into the data, really the models are like throwing darts on a board at this time.

Just my thoughts...

While that may be true, the Euro seems to be in line with a stronger trough. Not sure how it gets that stronger considering we are in a NAO+ pattern.

[northjaxpro]

I do not see it going that far east. There will be a narrow ridge in place up the next 48-60 hours, then we will see th e pronounced poleward movement during the weekend. I will eat my hat gladly if it ends up that far east. We will see.

[caneseddy]

***CAUTION****

1. GFS is overdoing the trough, which is notorious for doing quite often

2. Remember, we still do not have a centralized center officially initialized YET. So, until that happens and it is entered into the data, really the models are like throwing darts on a board at this time.

Just my thoughts...

While that may be true, the Euro seems to be in line with a stronger trough. Not sure how it gets that stronger considering we are in a NAO+ pattern.

Yeah the euro has a strong trough, but not as strong as the GFS..which is why it brings it closer to the SE Florida coast

It’s like Irma redux (except not as strong) where all the models showed the poleward movement but the difference was where. Based on past experience of the GFS overdoing troughs I would say Euro probably has it correct with the trough. I can’t see the trough being that strong as depicted by GFS. JMO

[St0rmTh0r]

You can put money down that trough will not be anywhere near that strong. Pattern suggest ridging will win out. This will get a lot closer to home than some think

[caneseddy]

HWRF has PTC-9 landfalling in Puerto Rico at an angle and exiting off the northwest tip and then skirting the north coast Hispaniola

HMON goes through Hispaniola and starts to consolidate and intensify once it exits off the north coast

[HurricaneFrances04]

Almost all the GFS ensemble members stay off shore Florida

[Aric Dunn]

Almost all the GFS ensemble members stay off shore Florida

a flag flapping in the wind..

[boca]

So we should be spared again here in Florida due to the trough which all the models now show.

[Dean4Storms]

LOL....The wiper effect on full speed with the models and no RainX on the windshield. Tomorrow they'll all be back up into the Eastern Gulf or up the Peninsula. They keep jumping this storm more NW and here we are due south now of PR in the Eastern Carib. Sea and still no sign of it.