ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[SapphireSea]

You can put money down that trough will not be anywhere near that strong. Pattern suggest ridging will win out. This will get a lot closer to home than some think

Think in the short-term it's likely it will play out more W. Long term I do see why it resolves such a deep trough. There is interaction with some sort of trough that is currently E of the rockies that amplifies with the flat trough on the E coast. I think it's somewhat of a reasonable solution if this develops and gets stronger as shown. The storm might be similar to Matthew in track I think, but weaker so it may be closer.

[tarheelprogrammer]

You can put money down that trough will not be anywhere near that strong. Pattern suggest ridging will win out. This will get a lot closer to home than some think

I believe the models may actually be downplaying how strong the trough is going to be. The models are playing catch up and they went from an eastern GOM solution to actually close to missing the US coastline altogether. It is quite rare for the models, in recent years, to flip back towards the west. Once they go east, they tend to stay that way or trend even further east. I have seen it play out quite a bit recently, so have many others on here. That is not to say, that the models are going to be correct. However, a betting man would place a bet down on the trough guiding this storm or system OTS. Just my 2 cents.

[TheStormExpert]

So we should be spared again here in Florida due to the trough which all the models now show.

We’ll know more tomorrow but it’s looking more likely. Not that Florida can’t handle a TS.

[gatorcane]

The HWRF is stronger but also recurving east of Florida. Seems a trend is in progress. Models becoming more bullish and recurving east of Florida. Could see the NHC track east of Florida and stronger by next advisory and if not then by 5am. If that happens, Florida will be on the dry side with close to nothing as far as impacts as SW shear pushes everything east. Interaction with Hispaniola and where a center finally forms will be key.

[BobHarlem]

This situation reminds me of Irma where a few showed models west early, then early turn right or even out to sea, and the system kept moving west despite it. Although the UKMet was the winner there. But Irma was also much more organized. 9's 8pm position is sw of the 18z initialization, Interestingly, the UKMet is one of the most west here too for PTC9.

[AutoPenalti]

Eh, I’m still going with the western solutions, I just don’t think the trough will be that strong, and we’re talking about a CoC that— well is non existent and thus won’t follow upper level steering. NHC won’t shift so quickly. I would wait a couple of more runs for verification.

[HurricaneFrances04]

(SUBJECT TO CHANGE) lol

[Evil Jeremy]

That is the tightest GFS ensembles I've seen in quite some time.

[Jr0d]

I am going with the recurve before Florida, brush the OBX solution...most storms miss. The models(except the GFS) almost never overestimate a trough's influence. The shift in the Euro today says a lot.

Amazing how often Florida is in the 5 day cone, only for the storm to go poleward east of the state.

[Hybridstorm_November2001]

I am going with the recurve before Florida, brush the OBX solution...most storms miss. The models(except the GFS) almost never overestimate a trough's influence. The shift in the Euro today says a lot.

Amazing how often Florida is in the 5 day cone, only for the storm to go poleward east of the state.

It's because of the semi-permanent westerlies that often lay east of your state. These are caused by the interplay between the Azores-Bermuda High and the Mid-Latitude North American Jet Stream. Things have to be perfect or abnormal for a storm to hit you from the east.

[karenfromheaven]

HAFS has been consistent about an eastern solution:

[WeatherEmperor]

Yea it is the Navgem but its closest approach to FL is a skirting of the eyewall in Palm Beach county before heading Northward. Its almost the exact same position as the 12z run earlier today


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[SFLcane]

18z Euro rolling...

[HurricaneFrances04]

18z Euro rolling...

Looks a little west and weaker vs the 12z.

As everyone has said, interaction with Hispaniola is the big wild card.

Edit: well might have spoke too soon about weaker. Looks like it does strengthen some in the bahamas

[PTrackerLA]

18z Euro rolling...

Similar to the 12z euro through 45hrs but weaker

[Jr0d]

It's because of the semi-permanent westerlies that often lay east of your state. These are caused by the interplay between the Azores-Bermuda High and the Mid-Latitude North American Jet Stream. Things have to be perfect or abnormal for a storm to hit you from the east.

2004 certainly had that anomaly.

Those of us who have lived in Florida for a long time are used to it. Almost comical to watch the new residents freak out when they are in the cone.

Going to try(most likely unsuccessfully) to ignore the latest storm movement and models for the night. Not going to be a concern until it passes Hispaniola and still forecast to come my way.

Reminds me of a storm in 2015 that got shredded by Hispaniola that was also forecast to impact Florida, it hit the shredder and died(TS Erika)). The marina I had my boat at had everyone freaking...while me be one of the youngest tenants was not worried and expected the storm's demise.

This is a bit different. I expect it to survive the interaction with Hispaniola...but from there, I think the models trending east is telling.

[Aric Dunn]

18z Euro lowest pressure is between Jamaica and Hati at 31 hours..

will it jump to the atlantic side is the question.

[HurricaneFrances04]

Looks like landfall near Boca as a minimal tropical storm

[jlauderdal]

It's because of the semi-permanent westerlies that often lay east of your state. These are caused by the interplay between the Azores-Bermuda High and the Mid-Latitude North American Jet Stream. Things have to be perfect or abnormal for a storm to hit you from the east.

2004 certainly had that anomaly.

Those of us who have lived in Florida for a long time are used to it. Almost comical to watch the new residents freak out when they are in the cone.

Going to try(most likely unsuccessfully) to ignore the latest storm movement and models for the night. Not going to be a concern until it passes Hispaniola and still forecast to come my way.

Reminds me of a storm in 2015 that got shredded by Hispaniola that was also forecast to impact Florida, it hit the shredder and died(TS Erika)). The marina I had my boat at had everyone freaking...while me be one of the youngest tenants was not worried and expected the storm's demise.

This is a bit different. I expect it to survive the interaction with Hispaniola...but from there, I think the models trending east is telling.

In 2004 i think we were in 2 cones at the same time

[PTrackerLA]

18z Euro landfalls near West Palm Beach @ 1004 mb, weakens on approach and turns north