ATL: LAURA - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[Cat5James]

Am I crazy or is the blow up a lot further south now?

Indeed it is... possible center relocation

[TheStormExpert]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 90624?s=21


I hesitate to share experimental guidance but it's public and every model has a different answer so YOLO...our HAFS run resolves the current tilt/asymmetry well. Takes about 48h to fully resolve that, then it goes off in the Bahamas. Still not sure about that, but gotta watch it.

Which model is this, and how is it’s track record?

[shiny-pebble]

If the center is reforming to the south I would think that would change a lot... Like that is really far south. Could it miss the islands to the south??

Sent from my SM-G970U using Tapatalk

[cheezyWXguy]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 90624?s=21


I hesitate to share experimental guidance but it's public and every model has a different answer so YOLO...our HAFS run resolves the current tilt/asymmetry well. Takes about 48h to fully resolve that, then it goes off in the Bahamas. Still not sure about that, but gotta watch it.

I am having a hard time understanding what his maps are depicting. Looks like surface winds that 48hr that get really high, but the circulation looks elongated?

[eastcoastFL]

The convection is starting to get a little more persistent. Even have a few pink cloud tops within the deepening convection. I wonder if the center will end up just to the north of that. I imagine a center further south could increase chances of hitting the big islands.

[eastcoastFL]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 90624?s=21


I hesitate to share experimental guidance but it's public and every model has a different answer so YOLO...our HAFS run resolves the current tilt/asymmetry well. Takes about 48h to fully resolve that, then it goes off in the Bahamas. Still not sure about that, but gotta watch it.

I am having a hard time understanding what his maps are depicting. Looks like surface winds that 48hr that get really high, but the circulation looks elongated?

Yah that’s been the big fear all along. This thing takes some time to get going but maintains its structure going north of the islands and bombs near and through the Bahamas.

[TheStormExpert]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL132020/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-AL132020-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif?hash=15433


https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/MESO/18N-56W/13/2020234001856_GOES16-ABI-MESO-13-18N-56W-500x500.jpg

I highly doubt this is still a TD. Likely a sharp wave axis extending from NW to SE. The NHC discussion at 11pm will surely be an interesting one.

[eastcoastFL]

Impressive blow up this evening...

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/21/1ce288e17758b9030b09701cf8481040-full.png

Still looks like Scrambled Eggs!

Even scrambled eggs start out as a blob until they hit a hot surface.

[TheStormExpert]

Impressive blow up this evening...

https://cdn1.bbcode0.com/uploads/2020/8/21/1ce288e17758b9030b09701cf8481040-full.png

Still looks like Scrambled Eggs!

Even scrambled eggs start out as a blob until they hit a hot surface.

True! Said this just before they downgraded Isaias from hurricane stays in The Bahamas.

[eastcoastFL]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL132020/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-AL132020-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif?hash=15433


https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/MESO/18N-56W/13/2020234001856_GOES16-ABI-MESO-13-18N-56W-500x500.jpg

I highly doubt this is still a TD. Likely a sharp wave axis extending from NW to SE. The NHC discussion at 11pm will surely be an interesting one.

You maybe right. But I guess no point in downgrading If it’s just going to restrengthen soon approaching islands.

[eastcoastFL]

I wonder if recon will head back south towards the new convection.

[TheStormExpert]

https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/FLOATER/data/AL132020/GEOCOLOR/GOES16-AL132020-GEOCOLOR-1000x1000.gif?hash=15433


https://cdn.star.nesdis.noaa.gov/GOES16/ABI/MESO/18N-56W/13/2020234001856_GOES16-ABI-MESO-13-18N-56W-500x500.jpg

I highly doubt this is still a TD. Likely a sharp wave axis extending from NW to SE. The NHC discussion at 11pm will surely be an interesting one.

You maybe right. But I guess no point in downgrading If it’s just going to restrengthen soon approaching islands.

Knowing the NHC a downgrade is probably not likely but can’t be ruled out. Besides there’s TS Watches up.

[eastcoastFL]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 90624?s=21


I hesitate to share experimental guidance but it's public and every model has a different answer so YOLO...our HAFS run resolves the current tilt/asymmetry well. Takes about 48h to fully resolve that, then it goes off in the Bahamas. Still not sure about that, but gotta watch it.

So here’s what his experimental model shows in the Bahamas

[eastcoastFL]

I highly doubt this is still a TD. Likely a sharp wave axis extending from NW to SE. The NHC discussion at 11pm will surely be an interesting one.

You maybe right. But I guess no point in downgrading If it’s just going to restrengthen soon approaching islands.

Knowing the NHC a downgrade is probably not likely but can’t be ruled out. Besides there’s TS Watches up.

If it was a major difference I wouldn’t be surprised if they down graded. But in a scenario like this I don’t think I’ve ever seen them downgrade that fast. They’ll say it’s still disorganized they struggled to find the center and they still expect gradual strengthening and it just leave it as is probably.

[Aric Dunn]

I hope recon flies back through that vort on satellite.. definite wind shift. with some convection building on the NE side.

[ozonepete]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 90624?s=21


I hesitate to share experimental guidance but it's public and every model has a different answer so YOLO...our HAFS run resolves the current tilt/asymmetry well. Takes about 48h to fully resolve that, then it goes off in the Bahamas. Still not sure about that, but gotta watch it.

"..our HAFS run resolves the current tilt/asymmetry well"

Who is "our"?

[Hypercane_Kyle]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 90624?s=21


I hesitate to share experimental guidance but it's public and every model has a different answer so YOLO...our HAFS run resolves the current tilt/asymmetry well. Takes about 48h to fully resolve that, then it goes off in the Bahamas. Still not sure about that, but gotta watch it.

"..our HAFS run resolves the current tilt/asymmetry well"

Who is "our"?

Looks like the NOAA Hurricane Research Division, where the OP works.

[SFLcane]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 90624?s=21


I hesitate to share experimental guidance but it's public and every model has a different answer so YOLO...our HAFS run resolves the current tilt/asymmetry well. Takes about 48h to fully resolve that, then it goes off in the Bahamas. Still not sure about that, but gotta watch it.

"..our HAFS run resolves the current tilt/asymmetry well"

Who is "our"?

He is a friend of mind works for HRD. The link to model pages is here —> https://storm.aoml.noaa.gov/basin/?projectName=BASIN

[eastcoastFL]

Look how the convection seems to shift from the northwest down to where it is now. It’s really firing off at the moment. Hopefully it’s just DMAX giving it fuel and not a change in conditions.

[ozonepete]

:eek:

https://twitter.com/andyhazelton/status ... 90624?s=21


I hesitate to share experimental guidance but it's public and every model has a different answer so YOLO...our HAFS run resolves the current tilt/asymmetry well. Takes about 48h to fully resolve that, then it goes off in the Bahamas. Still not sure about that, but gotta watch it.

"..our HAFS run resolves the current tilt/asymmetry well"

Who is "our"?

Looks like the NOAA Hurricane Research Division, where the OP works.

Are you sure this is a NOAA opinion?