ATL: LAURA - Models

[gatorcane]

No development on the Euro, just a broad low / wave passing through:

[Shell Mound]

Very important to note what the Euro DOES DO. It spins TD 14 up in the GOM pretty significantly. One will thrive, the other one won't.

That logic would hold if the was showing td 13 stronger on previous runs..

because before this it was not developing either of them lol

This is also true... In the end though, I don't think they can both coexist within the same region without somehow affecting one another.

I really hope 2020 doesn’t take this as a challenge.

[Blinhart]

There's a very good reason why two hurricanes have never been recorded in the Gulf of Mexico at the same time. If 13L gets a lot stronger than anticipated, 14L will remain weaker due to the former's outflow. This is what the HWRF is showing. Conversely, the opposite could occur, where 14L ramps up more than expected and becomes a hurricane in the Gulf, weakening 13L as it enters the Gulf. Very strange situation for sure.

This is correct. Without going in depth, it's Physics 101. No two objects occupying the same space, for every action in nature there is an equal and opposite reaction, etc.

A lot will depend on land interaction with 14. It could be in the Yucatán for a while. That would inhibit it’s development. It’s going to be interesting to see how this plays out and it’s why I think the models are having such a hard time right now.

I think it actually depends on which part of the Yucatan it goes over, some parts of the Peninsula won't have much effect on it, but yeah the time over will have some effect on it.

[chris_fit]

12 GFS Ens - Semi keep 13 around ---- check out the 'reinforcement' towards the end of that clip...

[Blinhart]

That logic would hold if the was showing td 13 stronger on previous runs..

because before this it was not developing either of them lol

This is also true... In the end though, I don't think they can both coexist within the same region without somehow affecting one another.

I really hope 2020 doesn’t take this as a challenge.

I don't there is no reason for 2 established systems to be in the GoM at the same time, just depends on the way their Atmospheric Bubble is.

[Beef Stew]

For anyone doubting how fast a system can get its act together and bomb out over the Bahamas/Florida straits (like the 12z HWRF is suggesting as a possible solution), the Labor Day Storm of 1935 is a solemn reminder. While this is the most extreme example of RI here, it is still a historical precedent. Now the setup is different, and I'm in no way saying that 13 will rival the Labor Day Hurricane in track or intensity. It just goes to show that 13 may not need much time to become a monster should everything fall into place.

[toad strangler]

It is hard to ignore such a steadfast (on 13) Euro.

[Ivanhater]

Looks like some strengthening as it approaches the Al FL border

[Shell Mound]

It is hard to ignore such a steadfast (on 13) Euro.

It would really be something to see simultaneous hurricanes threatening Houston/Galveston and Miami/Tampa/New Orleans. But it’s 2020...

[Blown Away]

If I had to make a forecast, I’m putting much more stock, not all in, in the Euro vs all the other models.

[aspen]

12 GFS Ens - Semi keep 13 around ---- check out the 'reinforcement' towards the end of that clip...

https://i.imgur.com/iwMyXuA.gif

Oh wow, the Euro still really likes the 20/40 AEW. Off topic, but I’m surprised it hasn’t been given higher odds or designed as 99L, especially since some models show development within 3 days.

[eastcoastFL]

If I had to make a forecast, I’m putting much more stock, not all in, in the Euro vs all the other models.

I’m in the opposite camp. Nhc had to make a forecast and they have a hurricane heading into the keys not a wave

[AxaltaRacing24]

If I had to make a forecast, I’m putting much more stock, not all in, in the Euro vs all the other models.

I’m in the opposite camp.

yep. the euro is playing catch up more than anything. every run has tried to dissipate the wave, then it developed into a TD.

[chris_fit]

If I had to make a forecast, I’m putting much more stock, not all in, in the Euro vs all the other models.

I’m in the opposite camp.

yep. the euro is playing catch up more than anything. every run has tried to dissipate the wave, then it developed into a TD.

To be fair, 13 looks like a wave right now.

[chris_fit]

Another pic of 12Z GFS Ens

[Shell Mound]

 https://twitter.com/Weathernerds/status/1296515071569465346

[fox13weather]

No model is wrong until proven wrong. At some point the ECMWF will have to fall in line with the more aggressive models. If it doesn't soon, it may end up being right all along.

[ConvergenceZone]

I’m in the opposite camp.

yep. the euro is playing catch up more than anything. every run has tried to dissipate the wave, then it developed into a TD.

To be fair, 13 looks like a wave right now.

I wonder if the NHC would downgrade it to a wave if they weren’t able to find a closed circulation or if they would maintain TD status for awhile?

[Nuno]

yep. the euro is playing catch up more than anything. every run has tried to dissipate the wave, then it developed into a TD.

To be fair, 13 looks like a wave right now.

I wonder if the NHC would downgrade it to a wave if they weren’t able to find a closed circulation or if they would maintain TD status for awhile?

Probably not since SFL is already on alert. Discontinuing advisories would make them seem unreliable or that the potential for this storm isn't there even if their language emphasizes that it exists. Same with why they'll keep it as a hurricane in the cone near FL unless it really falls apart.

Remember, this current state of TD13 was also predicted, it isn't going to light up likely until it clears the islands.

[psyclone]

No model is wrong until proven wrong. At some point the ECMWF will have to fall in line with the more aggressive models. If it doesn't soon, it may end up being right all along.

Massive applause. As of now...it's fair to say it is winning.