ATL: ISAIAS - Post-Tropical - Discussion

[SouthDadeFish]

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1288495310071898116

I wouldn't listen to a thing that guy says

Lol, but seriously I haven't seen much attention paid to the role of upper-level dynamics aiding convective development on the northern half of the wave... But then again I'm very biased

[Aric Dunn]

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1288495310071898116

I wouldn't listen to a thing that guy says

Lol, but seriously I haven't seen much attention paid to the role of upper-level dynamics aiding convective development on the northern half of the wave... But then again I'm very biased

well there is the 12z gfs.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=-60

[BobHarlem]

been watching that.. if that is the case.. then we multiple vorts.. one well west and that one.

could also be a illusion .. have to wait and see.

This is what caught my eye as well. I smell something brewing up there.

Saw this a little while ago. Seems the area west of Dominica is trying to wrap up IMO. Oh well....nothing to do but watch, wait, and see what happens.

I see that area too on the NE, but that southwest area also has stuff fanning out and north moving clouds. I don't think much happens until that's resolved.

[GCANE]

Oh, BTW, that N-S Axis rotation that was supposed to happen - DIDN'T
I vote to fire GFS.

[Lance]

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1288495310071898116

I wouldn't listen to a thing that guy says

Lol, but seriously I haven't seen much attention paid to the role of upper-level dynamics aiding convective development on the northern half of the wave... But then again I'm very biased

well there is the 12z gfs.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=-60

Long time lurker, first post. That looks to miss DR to the north? That would be interesting...

[SFLcane]

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1288495310071898116

I wouldn't listen to a thing that guy says

Lol, but seriously I haven't seen much attention paid to the role of upper-level dynamics aiding convective development on the northern half of the wave... But then again I'm very biased

well there is the 12z gfs.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=-60

If it indeed does this we have a whole new ball game in our hands. It will avoid most of the islands. Interesting

[Aric Dunn]

I wouldn't listen to a thing that guy says

Lol, but seriously I haven't seen much attention paid to the role of upper-level dynamics aiding convective development on the northern half of the wave... But then again I'm very biased

well there is the 12z gfs.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=-60

If it indeed does this we have a whole new ball game in our hands. It will avoid most of the islands. Interesting

well the GFS still kills it later with DRY AIR firs then SHEAR.. im just going to throw out the GFS this year lol

[MississippiWx]

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1288495310071898116

I wouldn't listen to a thing that guy says

Lol, but seriously I haven't seen much attention paid to the role of upper-level dynamics aiding convective development on the northern half of the wave... But then again I'm very biased

Northern half of the wave is still where I’m placing my bets. The southern half has been robust with convection which has robbed the northern half of energy/focus for low consolidation. That southern blob is decaying now. If it keeps decaying, I believe the northern half will finally be able to win the battle.

[nativefloridian]

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1288495310071898116

I wouldn't listen to a thing that guy says

Lol, but seriously I haven't seen much attention paid to the role of upper-level dynamics aiding convective development on the northern half of the wave... But then again I'm very biased

Northern half of the wave is still where I’m placing my bets. The southern half has been robust with convection which has robbed the northern half of energy/focus for low consolidation. That southern blob is decaying now. If it keeps decaying, I believe the northern half will finally be able to win the battle.

Agree with your bet on the northern half. Does appear, at this point, that the southern portion may be losing some steam. Just my uneducated opinion.

[sma10]

https://twitter.com/MikeFischerWx/status/1288495310071898116

I wouldn't listen to a thing that guy says

Lol, but seriously I haven't seen much attention paid to the role of upper-level dynamics aiding convective development on the northern half of the wave... But then again I'm very biased

Northern half of the wave is still where I’m placing my bets. The southern half has been robust with convection which has robbed the northern half of energy/focus for low consolidation. That southern blob is decaying now. If it keeps decaying, I believe the northern half will finally be able to win the battle.

Do we think that blowup around 16n 64w is where it's at?

[HurricaneEnzo]

well there is the 12z gfs.


https://www.tropicaltidbits.com/analysi ... 912&fh=-60

If it indeed does this we have a whole new ball game in our hands. It will avoid most of the islands. Interesting

well the GFS still kills it later with DRY AIR firs then SHEAR.. im just going to throw out the GFS this year lol

Reminds me of the 6z HWRF I looked at earlier. COC is jumping around and zigzagging all over the place. Honestly seems like they are lost. Hard to believe they aren't out to lunch on this one.

[Ian2401]

I wouldn't listen to a thing that guy says

Lol, but seriously I haven't seen much attention paid to the role of upper-level dynamics aiding convective development on the northern half of the wave... But then again I'm very biased

Northern half of the wave is still where I’m placing my bets. The southern half has been robust with convection which has robbed the northern half of energy/focus for low consolidation. That southern blob is decaying now. If it keeps decaying, I believe the northern half will finally be able to win the battle.

Do we think that blowup around 16n 64w is where it's at?

lets wait and see how it evolves

[curtadams]

Check the sats, log on to eat crow about being a bear on this and - THAT is still just a wave? Wow, gotta love the tropics. Also, pretty dubious about this expected NW turn as long as it hasn't formed up. Waves prefer heading west, and so far this has been showing just that.

[boca]

I like being in the cone early here in Florida because once the situation is more clear we will most likely not be on the cone anymore.

[SFLcane]

I like being in the cone early here in Florida because once the situation is more clear we will most likely not be on the cone anymore.

Not this time with Trof in place the break in the ridge is right over FL so it eventually has to turn north.

[curtadams]

If it indeed does this we have a whole new ball game in our hands. It will avoid most of the islands. Interesting

well the GFS still kills it later with DRY AIR firs then SHEAR.. im just going to throw out the GFS this year lol

Reminds me of the 6z HWRF I looked at earlier. COC is jumping around and zigzagging all over the place. Honestly seems like they are lost. Hard to believe they aren't out to lunch on this one.

HWRF is a numerical model - a big sim of a LOT of blobs of air moving around. Having the COC moving around doesn't mean it's confused, it means it thinks there's a messy circulation. Which matches up to the multiple vort sightings, complex behavior, etc.

[MississippiWx]

I wouldn't listen to a thing that guy says

Lol, but seriously I haven't seen much attention paid to the role of upper-level dynamics aiding convective development on the northern half of the wave... But then again I'm very biased

Northern half of the wave is still where I’m placing my bets. The southern half has been robust with convection which has robbed the northern half of energy/focus for low consolidation. That southern blob is decaying now. If it keeps decaying, I believe the northern half will finally be able to win the battle.

Do we think that blowup around 16n 64w is where it's at?

Starting to see low level westerlies just to the south of that new blowup of convection on the northern half. That’s where I’m thinking. Not sure if those westerlies are all the way to the surface, but it’s the first time I’ve seen pure westerlies on satellite with this system.

[Blown Away]

Check the sats, log on to eat crow about being a bear on this and - THAT is still just a wave? Wow, gotta love the tropics. Also, pretty dubious about this expected NW turn as long as it hasn't formed up. Waves prefer heading west, and so far this has been showing just that.

DATE TIME LAT LON CLASSIFICATION ID NAME
20200729 1130 15.5 62.4 T2.5/2.5 09L NONAME
20200729 0530 14.5 59.4 T2.0/2.0 09L NONAME
20200728 2330 14.7 56.7 T1.5/1.5 09L NONAME
20200728 1730 13.3 56.2 T1.5/1.5 09L NONAME

Has been slowly gaining latitude and getting better organized.

[HurricaneEnzo]

Now that some of that impressive convection from earlier has diminished a bit you can see little areas of spin everywhere. I might just go back to my original thoughts that nothing organized comes from this after all Surely don't envy the NHC right now trying to pin down a track and intensity for this mess

[Evil Jeremy]

Do we think that blowup around 16n 64w is where it's at?

By my eye, just looking at the two most recent satellite visible, there's some inflow under that mass.