ATL: ISAIAS - Models

[Aric Dunn]

Euro actually landfalls near MIami and drifts nnw to near orlando.

[northjaxpro]

Euro actually landfalls near MIami and drifts nnw to near orlando.

I mixed up the 12 Z and 18Z EURO. runs in analysis. Been a very long day for me. Thanks for catching that for me Aric as I mixed them up accidentally . Yes you are right the 18Z run has that ridge I have been constantly referring to nudge PTC-9 inland a tad NNW up the peninsula.

[Aric Dunn]

it is interesting that the current circ goes west all the way to hati before something reforms north of the islands.

[NDG]

Then comes the 18z Euro and throws a curved ball at us, a little weaker and further west.

[northjaxpro]

Then comes the 18z Euro and throws a curved ball at us, a little weaker and further west.

Yes indeed. NDG, the EURO is sticking to its guns with the narrow ridging. I am sticking with it as I have this whole time, that is provided if this PTC-9 is even still around this weekend.

[STRiZZY]

it is interesting that the current circ goes west all the way to hati before something reforms north of the islands.

https://i.ibb.co/KjFn4X0/modezrpd-20200730-0300-animation.gif

Yep, the current circ is showing up more and more on the model runs. They're still underestimating it though. Can't tell you how many runs in a row it just goes poof but in reality it has maintained it's strength so to speak. Could come down to a nowcast when it really starts to interact with Hispaniola.

[b0tzy29]

I can tell you with certainty that if this verifies - it will not be pretty on the Jersey Coast or Long Island

[NDG]

Euro actually landfalls near MIami and drifts nnw to near orlando.

Boca Raton to be exact.

[Aric Dunn]

Euro actually landfalls near MIami and drifts nnw to near orlando.

Boca Raton to be exact.

https://i.imgur.com/VpTDPRs.gif

Near enough..

[caneseddy]

Then comes the 18z Euro and throws a curved ball at us, a little weaker and further west.

Yes indeed. NDG, the EURO is sticking to its guns with the narrow ridging. I am sticking with it as I have this whole time, that is provided if this PTC-9 is even still around this weekend.

Did the same thing with Irma. Had a little narrow ridge as well that forced Irma a bit more west than initially forecasted

[caneseddy]

Euro actually landfalls near MIami and drifts nnw to near orlando.

Boca Raton to be exact.

https://i.imgur.com/VpTDPRs.gif

Near enough..

47.1 miles to be exact

[HurricaneFrances04]

Despite the poofcasting by some, the Euro ensembles might be a bit more bullish. Mean appears to be pretty close to the operational run.

[jlauderdal]

Boca Raton to be exact.

https://i.imgur.com/VpTDPRs.gif

Near enough..

47.1 miles to be exact

They are two different worlds.

[northjaxpro]

Then comes the 18z Euro and throws a curved ball at us, a little weaker and further west.

Yes indeed. NDG, the EURO is sticking to its guns with the narrow ridging. I am sticking with it as I have this whole time, that is provided if this PTC-9 is even still around this weekend.

Did the same thing with Irma. Had a little narrow ridge as well that forced Irma a bit more west than initially forecasted

That's right. Irma had a narrow ridge which pushed it NNW over the Florida peninsula.

[DestinHurricane]

Euro actually landfalls near MIami and drifts nnw to near orlando.

Boca Raton to be exact.

https://i.imgur.com/VpTDPRs.gif

Ha! I'll post a vid of the beautiful calm seas and blue skies this Saturday in Boca Raton. For real though, it seems like if we are the target early, it won't come here.

Off topic: is there a way to change my username?

[MidnightRain]

Then comes the 18z Euro and throws a curved ball at us, a little weaker and further west.

This, IMO, makes sense. With this thing still practically a wave and still treading more west than north, I don’t see how GFS verifies unless that northern flank of the system dominates and branches off.

[ColdMiser123]

18z EPS even more enthused with PTC 9. I'd say over half now show a sub 1000 mb system. Quite a few hurricane landfalls all across the east coast.

[DestinHurricane]

18z EPS even more enthused with PTC 9. I'd say over half now show a sub 1000 mb system. Quite a few hurricane landfalls all across the east coast.

How are they strengthening the system in the short term? are they initializing it and immediately strengthening or are they it strengthening after it is north of the GAs?

[TheStormExpert]

18z EPS even more enthused with PTC 9. I'd say over half now show a sub 1000 mb system. Quite a few hurricane landfalls all across the east coast.

Can you post a picture please?

[SconnieCane]

https://media.giphy.com/media/ZA4UxSct0xoCY7bJ0N/giphy.gif

I can tell you with certainty that if this verifies - it will not be pretty on the Jersey Coast or Long Island

Not gonna be pretty in here. You think this thread is long now...